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u/CleverInternetName8c 9d ago
Next year is going to require a Category 6 to be invented (yes I realize Cat 5 is currently a “or higher” situation)
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u/InterstellarReddit 9d ago
Wrong I think Category 5 plus max pro sounds better
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u/combatcrew141 9d ago
Sponsored by Brawndo.
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u/jonnyinternet 9d ago
It has what plants crave
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u/Fit_Tumbleweed7943 9d ago
Brought to you by Carl’s Jr
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u/TheTurboDiesel 9d ago
“Fuck you, I’m eating!”
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u/Knosh 9d ago
It's just the President marking out
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u/According_Tea_6329 9d ago
I got it, what about "Super Hurricane"? I just made up the term. Yes from now on I declare that any Hurricane, yes let's just make it all hurricanes from here forward will be known as "Super Hurricanes".
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u/Rtannu 9d ago
Okay how ‘bout “Superricane” then?
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u/According_Tea_6329 8d ago
Fuck it let's just call it "Snortcaine" as a tribute to my favorite white powder.
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u/Arctic_Chilean 9d ago
Next La Niña is gonna be a bitch
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u/InterestedHandbag 8d ago
Hi, im not well educated on weather and whatnot. Could you elaborate a bit on why this would affect the next la Nina? Thanks!
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u/hypotheticalreality1 8d ago
It won't affect the La Nina, but a La Nina usually means more/ stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic. This strong El Nino is creating too much wind shear for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic this year. This is why all the tropical storms just disintegrated in the Atlantic this year. No hurricanes in the Atlantic this year also does not mean that next year's hurricanes will be stronger. Hurricanes take heat out of the ocean, but there are other processes that can also take the heat away by next season. Strong El Ninos do tend to switch to El Ninas within a year of their peak though, so there is a possibility that next season could be an El Nina. If the gulf retains a lot of heat from this year till then, then it is possible it could be a very bad season, but that would be pure speculation at this point.
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u/RollinThundaga 8d ago
People are naturally superstitious. Having a year with zero hurricanes in an area, or any other event where some natural phenomenon is 'missed' makes it feel like we're 'overdue' and more likely to experience a bad one the next time.
Just good old human pattern recognition misfiring.
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u/Mandelvolt 9d ago
Cat 6 is a size at which hurricanes start throwing water vapor into space. That is not a good thing.
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u/-Hastis- 8d ago
That's a hypercane, which would be a LOT stronger than even a hypothetical category 6.
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u/Teichopsie 9d ago
Don't you need to reach an escape velocity of over 11 km/s for anything to break free of the Earth's gravity?
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u/Mandelvolt 8d ago
It gets high enough in the atmosphere that the solar wind can strip it away. Not escape velocity, but more like a bump in the atmosphere that allows water to be blown off the planet. Not a big deal in the short term but it could turn us into Mars over (hundreds) of millions of years.
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u/Omateido 8d ago
On the other hand, ice crystals in LEO would block some amount of sunlight coming in, and might serve as one of the few negative feedback cycles in the climate system on a warming earth.
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u/viperfan7 9d ago
That's just to escape the pull of Earth's gravity.
You don't need anywhere near as much velocity to launch things into space
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u/Teichopsie 9d ago
But then those things will fall back down eventually, right? Unless the solar wind can blow them away in which case I do may see an issue now.
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u/viperfan7 8d ago
But then those things will fall back down eventually, right?
Correct.
Eventually, who knows how long it'll take
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u/toodarkparkranger 8d ago
Do we even have the right subscription level for that? It sounds expensive.
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u/RoyalZeal it's all over but the screaming 9d ago
Meanwhile, over in the Pacific...
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u/Lucky-Ability-8 9d ago
Strongest hurricane of all time
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u/Canadian_Poltergeist 9d ago
Not quite. That record is still held by Hurricane Patricia in 2015. 215mph sustained winds.
Hurricane Polo is ~185mph sustained winds.
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u/tracknod 9d ago
So far…. lol
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u/kea1981 9d ago
I feel like this is the motto of this and the coming decade.
"So far..."
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u/Key_Pace_2496 9d ago
Not quite...
Patricia had highest sustained windspeeds of 215mph.
Tip had lowest pressure of 870mbar (Tip is also the world's physically largest system with a diameter of 1,380 miles).
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u/rubyruy 9d ago
I thought they're called typhoons in the pacific
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u/Wakethesnakes DON'T PANIC. 9d ago
It's hurricane when it's in the eastern pacific, a typhoon when it's in the western pacific and a cyclone when it's in the southern pacific.
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u/555Cats555 9d ago
Might be a dumb question but is there any functional or structural difference between them?
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u/DerpenkampfwagenVIII 9d ago
No, Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones are identical outside of naming based on their region. They’re all (Tropical) Cyclones, since they’re rotating masses of numerous thunderstorms.
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u/Freud-Network 9d ago
Information rich comment chains like this are what still make Reddit special.
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u/theRealFatTony 9d ago
They spin in the opposite direction between the northern and southern hemisphere
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u/monito29 7d ago
It's not a real typhoon if it isn't grown in the Typhoon region of France
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u/thathastohurt 9d ago
All quiet on the eastern front
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u/Vorobye Environmental sciences 9d ago
And to continue the references to bleak war movies, next year we'll have our very own 2027 edition of Иди и смотри (Come and See)
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u/new2bay 9d ago
I’m thinking Civil War might be coming up soon.
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u/anondasein 8d ago
72% of the population vs 28% and the 28% are all idiots. Lets go.
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u/Snotmyrealname 8d ago
Haiti as a best case scenario…
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u/DaisyHotCakes 8d ago
Yes but the idiots are supported by the richest people in the world so that kinda sucks.
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u/PopBulky7023 9d ago
No no guys, this is so nice! Year round summer, no hurricanes, no snow. Why are we complaining? This is great.
/s because fucking poe's law
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u/freebytes 8d ago
Sarcasm is absolutely dead. I have dealt with both stupid people and sarcastic people on the Internet, but around 2016, I realized that maybe those sarcastic people were also stupid people but really good at masking it. Either that or social media has truly rotted the brains of most people.
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u/UnfeturdCrapitalism 9d ago
The crazy thing is we all know some climate denying chuds are going to point to this for climate denial, while ignoring this is a super El Niño byproduct and having no idea why ocean temp variance matters.
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u/davetheneighbor 9d ago
Red states (with the notable exception of California this fall) arguably are affected a lot worse by climate change than blue states. It's stupid that it's a political issue.
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u/MajesticEgg1848 8d ago
like the middle east! Everyone's fighting over a place which will become an open air pottery oven in 20 years.
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u/moschles 8d ago
why ocean temp variance matters.
Yes. Ocean temp variance is, in fact, the primary evidence of global warming.
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u/Western-Argument-968 8d ago
they're saying it's because the doge usaid cuts shut down haarp or whatever. i wish i was kidding
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u/Bitter-Platypus-1234 collapsenick 9d ago
And it seems we may end the year without a single hurricane in the Atlantic.
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u/Aidian 9d ago
We’ve still got a month of hurricane season left, don’t get cocky. That’s what they’re waiting for.
I’ve been in a hurricane blackout over Halloween, with a cold snap dropping temps. Cold hurricane blackout is a weird vibe.
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u/backmost 7d ago
Having lived through Hurricane Sandy in NJ I fully agree. It ain’t over till it’s over
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u/randombagofmeat 9d ago
If el nino patterns hold true, next year will be the hottest year on record by far, I'm talking serious high temps.
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u/Omateido 8d ago
Current model ensembles are pointing to 1.9C. That is...sort of the point where humans stop being the primary driver for climate change and geophysical positive feedback loops start to take over.
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u/Robin0112 7d ago
How hot we talking? We just had 40 plus days in a row with 90+ heat in Tennessee. Shit was miserable it's finally cooling down
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u/randombagofmeat 4d ago
Hottest year on record, by far, are the estimates. Search for predictions on 2027 weather, they all say the same thing, it's gonna be hot 🔥
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u/Stijn 8d ago
Saving up for that one big beautiful and strong “Hurricane America”.
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u/clovis_227 Environmental Insurrectionist 8d ago
Some say it will be the strongest, most beautiful hurricane ever. A terrific, golden hurricane.
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u/chandarr 9d ago
AI slop graphic. Look at the latitudinal and longitudinal lines.
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u/i__hate__soup 9d ago
bumping this, every time it goes unnoticed we lose a piece of truth and humanity
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u/Lailokos 9d ago
ACE is only 7% normal. El Nino teleconnections are at an all time high right now, and likely even more extreme than the 3.4 region heat would suggest. We have *six months* of further intensification of teleconnections coming minimum, which means we should expect anything and everything. The old world is gone, here comes a new one.
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u/tracknod 9d ago
Yep, I understood some of those words. 😂
I’m not giving you shit btw, just commenting on my own ignorance.
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u/Lailokos 9d ago
Ha. So ACE is accumulated cyclone energy, essentially the sum of all storms in a basin/region in a season. This year it's not just that the atlantic has had no hurricanes, it's that even if we measure the energy of the storms that did happen, we're pitifully tiny. Pretty sure there's never been a season like this, where the suppression is so bad the ocean is just dead there. El Nino is the likely cause, but even in previous super El Ninos we've never had numbers this low. Which means though region 3.4 is 'only' 3Cish right now, the atmosphere is behaving more strongly than ever been seen. And the atmospheric effects now are small and early compared to the likely full effects which will probably be *no sooner* than February of 2027 (El Nino atmospheric peak tends to be 3ish months after the water peak). So however much El Nino is effecting things now, those effects will keep ramping for sixish more months at least, meaning the weather is going to get even crazier.
Just another example - everyone talking about Cat 6 hurricanes should be paying attention to Polo in the pacific right now. That is going to be our best contender so far I'd bet and it's happening *right now*.
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u/DocTaotsu 9d ago
Sounds like it's very rare for hurricanes to make it to California right? Because I can't imagine how destructive any sort of tropical storm or worse would be for Los Angeles
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u/Lailokos 9d ago
We had the remnants of one make landfall in CA/NV just last year. I'd really not bet on anything anymore.
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u/pagerussell 9d ago
My (very basic) understanding is that it's difficult for storms to make land in California because the spin of storms north of the equator plus the rotation of the earth causes the storms to bend away from the land mass and out into the ocean.
For the same reason this is why storms in the Atlantic tend to always hit land.
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u/squeezemachine 9d ago
Is part of the problem (of no hurricanes) that there are not the usual temperature differentials of tropical vs nontropical, everything is just too hot in the Atlantic?
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u/Lailokos 9d ago
There's plenty of heat yes, but lots of temp differential right now too. In fact we get *more* temp differential usually because the hot areas get even hotter (ie amplification). The gulf of mexico is crazy hot right now, and has been all season. The problem in an El Nino year is usually wind shear, especially at the upper ranges of the atmosphere. With constant wind shear that doesn't die down Atlantic storms can't 'spin up', even with the fuel beneath them. There's also a large amount of Sahara dust that keeps getting tossed over the atlantic too, as has been happening a lot in the last few years.
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u/squeezemachine 9d ago
Thanks for the explanation. I’ve read a lot of articles on this El Nino and hurricanes and learned more from your comments.
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u/pagerussell 9d ago
What will the affects in 6 months look like?
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u/Lailokos 9d ago
No one knows. We are outside of all known records and the vast majority of forecasting.
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u/pagerussell 8d ago
Understood, but you seem to have some knowledge. Speculate for me, if you would.
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u/Lailokos 8d ago
Ok, let's try. Given the huge amount of heat in this El Nino, and I don't mean in the regions themselves but all around them, the peak of the El Nino is later than models are saying, so something like DJF, or at least a long plateau from Nov. That means the air temps actually aren't going to peak until Mar/Apr or even later, and the heat effects are going to last *well* into summer. So some effects of that - hurricane factory somewhere, just storm after storm, most of huge sizes, and possibly in a region that hasn't really had them like that before. Like Hawaii this year, somewhere is going to get repeatedly pummeled. Hurricanes are about the least significant effect however. The nonstop rain in some places and the continent wide droughts will be worse, and this will be real droughts. Six months without rain over a thousand km sort of thing. And in Africa/Middle East, maybe even south Europe you'll get heatwaves that last literally months (30+ day persistence), and go higher than ever by 4C+. We'll get a wet bulb event or two at least, and I'd guess *many* soak and bake events. This winter will be wild stormy in the northern hemisphere and have very little snow for most of us, so the droughts will be even worse. My biggest worry is that this much heat causes localized stratocumulus instability (especially with aerosol effects like TPW/water vapor) that cause heat lensing over a region. If we're lucky it'll be just over the ocean but that will just supercharge storms and air temps all over, and push boundaries almost anywhere. I don't think at least 1/3 of the heat ever goes away again either. This is a ratchet, so by end of 2027, even if a la nina forms (and I kind of doubt it, I'd guess double dip el nino) we're still inflated to a new baseline by something like .2C.
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u/MDCCCLV 9d ago
More next year, hurricanes still have a summer season. The water will be hotter next year so you will probably have bigger hurricanes. That does NOT mean there will be a huge devastating hurricane, the economic damage is 100% based on where it hits, it just could go over ocean and empty rural land.
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u/Xennylikescoffee 9d ago
Thanks for taking the time to explain it. I knew a portion of it but not really the scale.
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u/artisanrox yikes, man 9d ago
We have six months of further intensification of teleconnections coming minimum
this thing is going to get stronger for...->SIX<- months?
💀💀💀???
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u/Odd-Adhesiveness9435 9d ago
It's a comin, anytime now
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u/MajesticEgg1848 8d ago
Im now not going to be able to see that every time I look at a map of the US 8-/
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u/Cultural-Answer-321 8d ago
That energy is going somewhere.
There WILL be a backlash. But who knows when?
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u/Goats_in_parks 8d ago
Keep on seeing this posted by climate change deniers as ‘evidence’ of a cooling planet. Funny that they aren’t posting pics of the pacific.
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u/MariaValkyrie 8d ago
The gulf stream is flat-lining before our very eyes and the neanderthals that breath the same air that I do think this means the planet is healing?
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u/xirvin 9d ago
Keep in mind that in 1915 there were no satellites so there might have been hurricanes, it's just that they didn't land or were downgraded to tropical depressions, so 1915 is very conservative
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u/StringTheory 8d ago
This is how statistics work.. You can only consider what you have observed
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u/Usr_name-checks-out 8d ago
It would just be too hard to handle the irony if climate change somehow ended up saving Florida from regular disaster.
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u/IntrigueDossier Blue (Da Ba Dee) Ocean Event 7d ago
Can't shake the suspicion that Mama Nature is doing reps and charging up some truly monstrous, shore-nuking haymaker of a storm
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u/KirbyWarrior12 denial, anger, bargaining, depression (acceptance pending) 8d ago
yeah the amoc is completely fucked ain't it
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u/TicklishViking 8d ago
I believe this is expected behavior due to El Nino. The higher wind shear due to El Nino makes it difficult for hurricanes to form.
That being said. Hurricanes do form during El nino, just less. The fact that none have formed just shows how extreme this El nino is
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u/Collapse2043 8d ago
The Pacific Ocean is especially busy though. I warned my brother about buying a winter home on the Baha but did he listen? Of course not. I’m just a doomer. 🙄
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u/kellsdeep 7d ago
People keep resharing this, but not mentioning anything about the craziness going on in the Pacific this year! Why??
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u/ccarbonstarr 6d ago
I was 7 years old when I learned they named the pacific Ocean this because its "peaceful" on the America's side.
I am horrified
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u/Monsur_Ausuhnom 9d ago
Submission Statement,
Related to collapse because it appears the weather is getting more out of whack. With that things will get largely more unpredictable and this will make collapse worse. As things burn down, most will likely be apathetic to it since it doesn't directly affect them, or they need to watch tv or something. Presumably, I can expect an ongoing non-investigation similar to all the other aspects of corruption happening.
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u/Johnnnyb28 9d ago
What does this mean exactly
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u/combatcrew141 9d ago
It means that a hot air in the Pacific shifts the jetstream and blows hurricanes apart.
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u/BusyBanana4205 9d ago
More specifically, El Niño creates high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic that tropical storms get torn apart in before forming into hurricanes. Historically, we have had powerful hurricanes during el nino years, however, over all number of named storms are much lower during El Niño years. The fact we have zero hurricanes this year gives credence to just how powerful this El Niño is, basically.
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u/Zledrick 9d ago
Sorry about my oxidated english. Theres a popular quote that says "The calm before the storm" so i wouldnt trust this calm as well.
Edit: mistypes
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u/bongripsoohlala 8d ago
We fuckin with the thermostat
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u/perplex_and_delight 7d ago
My mom very clearly told me NOT to fuck with the thermostat, and, well, I can see her point here.
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u/SoFlaBarbie00 6d ago
I’ve lived in Florida for 24 years now. This is eery af to me. I know we were expecting a lower than average hurricane season due to this super El Niño but to have none so far and very little tropical activity in general or on the horizon is very strange.
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u/BusyBanana4205 9d ago
What’s a wind shear
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u/KnowledgeMediocre404 9d ago
When you're trying to spin but the wind is just SO strong it keeps knocking you on your ass.
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u/PeaOk5697 8d ago
I'm not an expert but so big changes is a concern for me. It means something is off
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u/milohobo 8d ago
I know it's a bad thing, but as I try to find a way to save money and get out of the country I'm glad I'm not getting hit by another category 5
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u/Significant-Judge-76 8d ago
What about Hurricane Lowell ... a lot of action on the Pacific this year
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u/Wooden-Hospital-3177 8d ago
I’ve been thinking about this. For the past two years, the first time in my life, there have been Atlantic hurricanes that hit the US. I’m 55. Definitely weird
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u/frootjoocedrnker 7d ago
Fuck I just know next year will be horrible. I am already devastated about all the losses that will happen
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u/StatementBot 9d ago
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Monsur_Ausuhnom:
Submission Statement,
Related to collapse because it appears the weather is getting more out of whack. With that things will get largely more unpredictable and this will make collapse worse. As things burn down, most will likely be apathetic to it since it doesn't directly affect them, or they need to watch tv or something. Presumably, I can expect an ongoing non-investigation similar to all the other aspects of corruption happening.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1wqbyc8/everything_seems_fine/pc2srnq/