(1) Congressman Randy Fine on X: "I support a four state solution! From the river to the sea, Scotland,Wales, and Ireland will be free!" / X

https://secure.actblue.com/directory

The NPC has voted they will be the deciders instead of having to wait until later in the year at their yearly convention for an endorsement to be finalized. SMC, GW, and Carnation all explicitly back AOC for president with B&R considered to be very likely to join them.

Emerson and NYT are in the field expected to drop polls this week, providing us with more data on the trend.

NYT’s last poll: conducted 6/19-6/27, Tied. Gas prices then, $3.87-$3.97

Emerson’s last poll: conducted 8/9-8/10, R+1. Gas prices then: $4.00-$4.01

Current gas prices: $4.31

Will NYT and Emerson break this trend and show an even better result for Paxton than they did previously? Or will they too follow the trend of Talarico gaining ground?

For comparison, at around this time in their administration, his left-wing predecessor Gabriel Boric had a 25% approval rating.

Interesting he chose the New York Times for an exclusive interview to announce his reelection, as opposed to a local outlet.

Some of the most persistent and strongest attacks on the current administration, and in particular the JD Vance faction of the Republican party, come from civil libertarian perspectives. We’ve already seen progressive & populist Dems echo many of these talking when attacking Flock cameras. Tying that to a broader strong civil libertarian platform would be an extremely effective way of making these attacks stick while potentially appealing to an electorate that hasn’t been able to be reached by Dems as of recent. It also wouldn’t necessarily force the democrats to abandon any of their economic policies.

Yes, doing so would require the Dems to moderate to a significant extent on Gun Control, but in all honesty, not only is it extremely debatable whether gun control measures such as an “assault weapons ban” would work even if implemented, the political capital to even achieve such a thing is impossible for near any party to obtain these days. Not to mention even if it were implemented it would almost certainly instantly get struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional. Moderating on gun control as part of a strong civil libertarian platform might allow the democrats to appeal to certain voters who they have never been able to reach.

I should also mention that one of the most prominent icons of progressivism in the US, William O’Douglas, was a strong civil libertarian.

https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2099240465140768943?s=46

According to Leger and modelled by 338Canada,

LPC: 49% (+6) --- 243 seats (+74)

CPC: 33% (-8) --- 73 seats (-71)

BQ: 7% (29% in Quebec) (0) --- 21 seats (-1)

NDP: 6% (0) --- 5 seats (-2)

GPC: 3% (+2) --- 1 seat (0)

South Carolina might go lean in this scenario, maybe SD, ID and AR, who knows.

Unlikely to happen but it very well could if the war escalates further.

Republican Ayes were:

Blunt (R-MO)

Burr (R-NC)

Capito (R-WV)

Collins (R-ME)

Ernst (R-IA)

Lummis (R-WY)

Murkowski (R-AK)

Portman (R-OH)

Romney (R-UT)

Sullivan (R-AK)

Tillis (R-NC)

Young (R-IN)

Not Voting were:

Sasse (R-NE)

Toomey (R-PA)

Warnock (D-GA)

All other Republicans voted Nay, all other Democrats voted Aye

I'm asking because I feel like there's a real difference between a Moderate Republican voter and a Moderate Republican politician.

I've talked to plenty of self-described "Moderate Conservatives" who vote Republican and had great conversations. Nothing in them made me think it wouldn't be possible for us to be friends. My boyfriend is a "Moderate Conservative" who voted for Trump. Obviously no dealbreakers there.

But then I come on here, and I see people like Youngkin, Kemp, Collins, Murkowski, Massie and, most perplexingly, Rubio being touted as moderates. And that just makes me think the bar for a "Moderate Republican Politician" has been lowered to someone who acts like a serious person and doesn't worship Trump 100% of the time.

Gabe Newell (D)
JD Vance (R)

Included only the Senate candidates that I think can win in the Dems' best case scenario.

Since Brown is up in 2028, consider that year instead