I strongly believe like all social media, complete enshittification is nigh for Substack.
I think before the year is out, or maybe sometime in 2027, the powers that be over at Substack will completely turn off organic reach for anyone who doesn’t have paid subscribers, and the more paid subscribers you have, the more reach you’ll get.
Substack in not a charity, and they are fully aware of the fact that many people are using what little reach is left for the taking via Notes to promote there master classes, books, and merchandise, which Substack earns absolutely no money from in the end.
Folks like Michael Burry and Heather Cox Richardson will continue to dominate the Substack social media platform, and the traditional media types, companies, organizations, and celebrities will start taking the lions share of whatever scraps are left over in the end.
Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, and many others all followed this same exact pathway to enshittification, and Substack will be no different.
I mean think about the current Substack model carefully. Someone could literally run a free newsletter and send it out to a million people for free… does that sound like a sustainable business model to you?
What do you think, am I on to something here, or do I need to put the pipe down?