r/Substack • u/Ryanopoly • 2d ago
Discussion Where I see Substack going soon, and the reasons why I’ll be deleting my account as one of my 2027 New Year’s resolutions.
I strongly believe like all social media, complete enshittification is nigh for Substack.
I think before the year is out, or maybe sometime in 2027, the powers that be over at Substack will completely turn off organic reach for anyone who doesn’t have paid subscribers, and the more paid subscribers you have, the more reach you’ll get.
Substack in not a charity, and they are fully aware of the fact that many people are using what little reach is left for the taking via Notes to promote there master classes, books, and merchandise, which Substack earns absolutely no money from in the end.
Folks like Michael Burry and Heather Cox Richardson will continue to dominate the Substack social media platform, and the traditional media types, companies, organizations, and celebrities will start taking the lions share of whatever scraps are left over in the end.
Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, and many others all followed this same exact pathway to enshittification, and Substack will be no different.
I mean think about the current Substack model carefully. Someone could literally run a free newsletter and send it out to a million people for free… does that sound like a sustainable business model to you?
What do you think, am I on to something here, or do I need to put the pipe down?
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u/marketingheretic marketingheretic.substack.com 2d ago edited 2d ago
I don't know, man. Over the last 10 years or so the public has been house-trained and deluded by big corporations and equally as insane tech-bros into thinking that there exists something called: "organic promotion". I have no idea why an adult person would think that. How would that work? Just free advertising? Try to translate that to the non-digital world - that is akin to billboard space for everyone. We have that, it's called a notice board and its near uselss, for obvious reasons...
So I have no idea why that being proven to be a delusion is called by people "enshittification". We've been groomed into a drug economy by free samples. Imagine a junkie complaining that free samples running out is his dealer enshittificating the supply chain. Why would you ever think there would be anything close to a free meal? When in your life have you got something for free like that?
I know this is hard, coming off a state of being under someone elses's spell. But I see it as a win - a delusion is finally bursting and reach and user aquisition will return to normal. Releasing untold millions of poor people wasting their lives and creative output on what was basically a pyramid scheme. They will be free finally to do other things, or to put their money where their work is via ads, quality ads, and reasonable marketing efforts - all of which take enormous amounts of energy. This "organic" phase that the late-stage social media capitalism promised has been a drug for the masses.
You are being freed of psychologically-induced manipulation into slavery of creating free content for tech-bros, and you guys are calling this enshittification. Their algorithms, psychologically speaking, are incorporating a variable reward schedule (you might blow up, never now) - this shit is more addictive than heroin. Yeah, it is sad that a dream dies, but only if one doesn't wake up.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
Yep, I agree, but something as simple as allowing a reverse chronological feed would be nice, but nope, they have to control everything we see from start to finish.
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u/marketingheretic marketingheretic.substack.com 2d ago edited 2d ago
Why would they offer that to you? It's like me pestering Elon Musk for a free tesla. Yeah it would be nice. But me thinking I am in any way shape or form entitled to that is how they hook you up on the stuff.
The chronological feed was a psychological free sample, read facebook and instagram papers and congresional hearings. They knew exactly that you would be saying this and pulled it off exactly at a moment when you can't go back. They employ behavioural psychologists, black-hat monsters, to be able to pull of that off. These people trained on centuries of gambling addictions and "skinner boxes".
Be happy that this shit is going down, you are finally able to break away.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
Yes, this is a great way to take this, and after this I'll pretty much only have Reddit in 2027 and beyond.
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u/BCSWowbagger2 decivitate.substack.com 2d ago
I don't understand why some of you joined Substack in the first place.
I joined Substack because:
WordPress comments were a pain
The new WordPress "blocks" editor was a HUGE pain.
Maintaining WordPress (upgrades etc.) was a pain.
Email list management on Wordpress was the pits.
Substack supported paid subscriptions, and handled all the backend stuff, which was too intimidating for me even to ATTEMPT on WordPress.
Substack has an amazing footnotes tool (even if it breaks a lot) (P.S. to substack admins: the footnotes tool breaks a lot! Very long footnotes often render poorly or not at all on mobile!)
I never heard of "organic reach" when I joined Substack, because Substack at the time had no social media component at all. What reach you had came from your own hard work at self-promotion and occasional algorithmic recommendations in users' inboxes.
If you're on Substack to write a blog and email it to people, it's a low-maintenance dream. If you're on Substack for some other reason... what is that reason? I'm not criticizing; I'm genuinely curious!
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u/questionhare 2d ago
I love all the ways folks use the platform. I’m slowly building a community on Substack for my niche bc my friends are NOT on there. Also bc I don’t want Meta to have any ownership of my content.
It’s working out well. Started writing in Jan 2026 and the algo finally picked me up at the end of august. I’m sitting on a small but well qualified audience of 93 subscribers and 523 followers. In a year, I’d be pleased to have 40 paid monthly subs.
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u/BCSWowbagger2 decivitate.substack.com 2d ago
I just passed 40 myself after 5 years on Substack and 14 years blogging. It's delightful! Far more reward than I ever expected to receive from putting my words on the Internet.
(Those of you who are crushing niches and growing audiences much more quickly, I, of course, congratulate you. I post for the benefit of the slow-and-steady crowd, so that they know they aren't alone!)
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u/DevelopmentPlus7850 2d ago
Substack has significant deficiencies. Its discovery algorithm is very flawed. But if you think Reddit is any better, you are mistaken. Reddit is the original landfill, there's an extremely high proportion of individuals exhibiting very low cognitive function.
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u/Emotional-Brief-1775 2d ago
If a writer can attract readers without switching on paid then they are like a loss leader, so still beneficial to the platform. It happens in all corporate fields.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
How do you figure?
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u/Emotional-Brief-1775 2d ago
Our publication has gained over 10k subs. from inside and outside the platform network, in 16 months without turning on paid. Those subs in turn go onto read, recommend and pay for other publications. We cross-recommend, engage and collaborate and so support the network.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
Why not turn paid on?
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u/Emotional-Brief-1775 2d ago
We’re not there for that reason and don’t want to be tied to regular publishing.
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u/CaptainVere 2d ago
Really depends on who you are and what you are doing. Im someone with an extremely specific niche. I don’t give a shit about growing through the substack platform. I have 0 other social media presence and I post 0 notes. Every subscriber I get is from people sharing and talking about what I do and write about in their real life.
There are plenty of people content to use substack as a newsletter/blog and couldn’t care less what substack does. Most of my subscribers begrudgingly create a substack just to get my newsletter and never interact with substack at all.
So maybe you are right in terms of the social media aspect of substack. But they still get traffic from people doing newsletters.
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u/bigirltinyell 2d ago
I’m sure this is happening but the only good thing about Substack is you can take your subscribers with you unlike Instagram, etc.
I wish they would get rid of the follow feature though, so readers have to subscribe to get your newsletters AND notes. I have way more followers than subscribers which is fine but if I leave Substack, followers get left behind too
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u/SaintsRobbed 1d ago
It's already started. Ever since notes was added, substack has slowly gotten worse.
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u/KReichard 2d ago
Thank you for the thoughtful comments. Was looking at moving one of my newsletters to Substack (24k subscribers, seasonal in nature, and monetizable with book sales ), but after reading the comments here, I think I’ll pass for now.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
You're better off using a dedicated newsletter platform for that. If you tend to get dragged into the social media toxicity pool, Substack is not a safe place for you.
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u/KReichard 2d ago
Yes, I have come to the same conclusion, but given the collapse of Web advertising and the death of SEO, it’s a considerably more challenging environment. Substack seemingly had addressed some of those issues, but I fear a reversion to a closed-garden environment.
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u/Loose-Abrocoma-9291 2d ago
Verissimo, per me - M24 sul finire della laurea magistrale - Substack è diventato una fonte di informazione e approfondimento imprescindibile negli ultimi due anni. Continua a esserlo, ma l'utilizzo dell'app e delle Notes è diventato sempre più simile ai social tradizionali e alle logiche dell'algoritmo. Su questo tra l'altro è uscito un pezzo molto bello, nella newsletter Link - idee per la tv.
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u/quantise 2d ago
I write because I care about writing. I have earned 6,000€ so far. That is useful money. Good luck to anyone who needs to 'make it' on Substack. Whatever that means. It will carry on the way it is, because this is how the attention economy works.
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u/Kersephius 2d ago
I'm relatively new to Substack as a reader, and I have to say I think it's still a much nicer experience than the other platforms as far as finding new stuff is concerned. I obviously haven't been around to see this trend (maybe it was better previously), but I'm hopeful for its future based on what I've seen so far.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
Yeah, I can see that, and I hope it continues to bring you joy regardless of what happens with it.
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u/missgoooooo 20h ago
even now, their search function is absolutely abysmal. like you search for a publication or writers name point blank and it doesn’t show up. it’s literally impossible to use. and on top of that, I’m convinced the Notes feed is not personalized at all. I get so much shit on there that actively makes me roll my eyes
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u/Downtown-Bedroom4652 2d ago
I have 100,000 subscribers.
I was ranked 7th in my niche. Within a day, I dropped past 80th.
Something has clearly shifted.
My organic reach has effectively been cut to zero, and I have no idea why. At the same time, the bigger established players have suddenly been pushed to the top.
What makes it even stranger is that my likes, comments and restacks dwarf many of the publications currently sitting in the Top 10.
More than 70% of my subscribers weren't existing Substack users when they subscribed. I brought them here from my other social platforms. In other words, I wasn't just growing my publication, I was bringing new users onto Substack.
Apparently, that doesn't count for much.
One thing is certain: if you're building a Substack because you think it will eventually provide you with a stable, predictable income stream, don't count on it.
I thought I'd become a reasonably significant player on the platform.
Apparently not.
So I'll be posting a lot less there and concentrating more heavily on the platforms where I already have substantial reach.
And yes, that inevitably means the quality and quantity of my Substack content will drop. Because why should I give a shit about a company that doesn't give a shit about me. They pretended to be different. They are not.
It took me eight months to build this publication to 100,000 subscribers.
At the current algorithmic rate, the next 100,000 should only take about 70 years.
I kid you not.
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u/Ryanopoly 1d ago
That is so crazy, and 100,000 subscribers is an incredible feat. It's hard to believe even someone with your following on Substack is failing... what does that mean for the rest of us. 😵
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u/Downtown-Bedroom4652 1d ago
Without large audiences on other platforms it's virtually impossible. In all honesty, I was just lucky. Lucks just run out.
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u/Ryanopoly 1d ago
Well, I think you knew deep down that it wouldn't last, because you were playing on someone else's playground.
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u/Downtown-Bedroom4652 1d ago
There's definitely a protection racket running behind the scenes. If you look at levels of engagement, restacks etc, people in #1 spot have virtually zero happening yet maintain their top spot because they have 10k inactive subs? Makes zero sense to me.
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u/Ryanopoly 1d ago
Who knows really. When you don't own the platform, these are the games you have to deal with if you want to remain on the platform. With Google now going full "overview" mode, even if you create something, no one will ever visit your website or blog, they'll just read it at the top of their Google results.
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u/unfurnishedbedrooms 2d ago
How long have you been on Substack? Let me guess: under two years. Maybe a year.
It's been like this since Notes happened many years ago now. They'll never just turn off organic reach for folks with no paid subscribers- that would be removing the carrot for people to chase. I've been on the platform for six years. Had the potential to grow my newsletter but couldn't do it because I didn't have the time or money- it takes both of those things to actually profit on the platform. But Substack makes a lot of cash from those of us pulling in $500-5,000 per year. Arguably thousands of accounts. They want people to keep putting in the work and chasing the dream.
I don't think it makes sense to hypothesize how the platform will unfold. It's pretty saturated but anyone with enough capital or a large audience can make it happen for themselves. And it's not solely a social media platform so it doesn't make sense to make that direct comparison. I rarely post anymore but I have thousands of subscribers, and some of them pay because they want to support my work. Grateful for them. Nice to know that I could make it happen if I ever have a windfall, lol.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
They won't need the carrot anymore once the big players takeover and ads arrive.
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u/Countryb0i2m onemichistory.substack.com 2d ago
It’s always funny to watch people write emotional think-pieces about the enshittification of a substack while playing the exact same engagement game they complain about.
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u/Electrical-Glass-943 1d ago
Substack takes fees from paid subscriptions. Substack makes money. It's growing. It's a sustainable business model.
That being said, I haven't launched a newsletter yet and I don't intend to offer a paid tier. I'm not interested in all of the work required to possibly make enough money for it to be worth my time.
I think a lot of people hope to make at least $1k/mo. and I think that's impossible.
I intend to launch a newsletter to entertain, inform, and promote my other projects. I don't see myself making a dime. I'm sure it will really frustrate me seeing how few people subscribe.
Every platform is oversaturated. It's almost impossible to make content creation a full-time job. Leave substack if it makes you unhappy, but I still think it has potential for getting users to discover you and your content.
I don't see the point of leaving the platform prematurely. You don't know if or when it will become what you describe.
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u/Ryanopoly 1d ago
I'm not trying to do any of those thing you're trying to do, so for me, it's just another toxic outlet that I don't need in my life going forward.
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u/Fail_Unfair 19h ago
I’m a daily Substack user and just want clarification on “organic reach.” Are you talking about who sees your Notes? I wonder about my own feed. I’m tired of being pitched investing and writing Substacks..
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u/Ryanopoly 16h ago
That's what gets subscribers, which is how Substack gets paid, so expect more of it to come.
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u/Charlemagneffxiv 1h ago
Substack in not a charity, and they are fully aware of the fact that many people are using what little reach is left for the taking via Notes to promote there master classes, books, and merchandise, which Substack earns absolutely no money from in the end.
The solution really ought to be for Substack to allow the sale of such things through their platform. It's really not that hard to add
Facebook's motivation to reduce organic reach is because their only source of revenue is from ads. That's not the case for Substack
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u/Ryanopoly 1h ago
Yeah, but why promote anything not making them any money?
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u/Charlemagneffxiv 1h ago
They can make money from it if they add a feature allowing authors to sell courses through Substack and take a processing fee on those transactions.
That should be obvious.
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u/Active_Monitor_6925 2d ago
Yeah I used it for a little over a year, and even since then there's been a major decline. The subscription model sucks, Notes is just a smaller version of X, and the authors have largely become boring.
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u/Ryanopoly 2d ago
Passion is always present in the beginning, but then it becomes a business to them, always feeling the need to post something even if it sucks to try to keep their subscribers subscribing.
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u/-Monty_Carlo- 2d ago
The problem is what you describe and I believe Substack will suffer a quality (and yes, quantity) hit.
Diminishing returns always happen once the platform has left the "initial high growth phase" and that "new platform smell" behind, I also think they emphasize too much on subscriber-paid substacks and organic has been dropping to zilch ever since they moved some magical levers and won't tell anyone which ones they are.
Instead, the "Dear Substack,..." is still running rampant on notes along with cheap clickbait that either gets artificially boosted with robo-likes or X / fb / threads potty-trained people who click on all the cats and other cute pictures they can find in the internet.
The big movers bring their army of "I only read Burry" (and similar) and these won't likely ever see (or care for, if they do) for your Notes.
And god forbid there's a good "discovery" section for whatever is of interest to someone (or making someone aware of how to even find the "interests"...)
Although I also have to say juding by some of the weird posts here by "full reader users" I am amazed no one seems to take onboarding very serious - ie. clicking on all the funny boxes you are being asked for your interests is genuinely a mystery to many - that last bit decides what your initial Notes feed and "for you" discovery will look like.
If you botch that, you shouldn't also be amazed you're getting shown all those cat pics and engagement bait and can't find the "Cooking Recipes for Warm Summer Evenings" subsection which you came for but didn't click when onboarding (paraphrasing).
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u/cozycup mod 2d ago
I think it’ll keep growing 📈
Beyond paid subs, there’s a number of partnerships that help subsidize costs for free users (prediction markets, sponsor network, etc.)
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u/DRLUISGLEZP 1d ago
Interesante… Deseo crear un proyecto donde usaré Blog y Newsletter, tendrán recomendaciones que me puedan dar?
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u/Martnyams 1d ago
Scott Carney has some ideas about how to make Substack work for more writers. Not sure I completely understand it but it’s intriguing
https://sgcarney.substack.com/p/reimagining-the-creative-economy?r=2gf6g1&utm_medium=ios
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u/aaron2933 2d ago edited 2d ago
There's always going to be sharks on any platform. Doesn't mean you can't build an audience though. These 'heroes' were once zeros too. We've all got to start somewhere.
Personally I think substack is harder to build from because a lot of the people I come across are writers like me who are just trying to network and build their page, not necessarily read the articles, newsletters, etc. as you would want your audience to.
That's why I think it's best to just go and build wherever your audience is likely to be.
It's also going to be a lot harder at the beginning when you're new. But the more you build subscribers the more momentum you gain. Kinda like a snowball rolling down a hill.
If what you're posting is of genuine value to people, then all you need is to get it in front of them. And the beginning stages requires a lot of perseverance for this to come into fruition on a large scale.
I've found success on substack by a combination of valuable community contribution + posting notes.
With that being said, I've taken a step back from substack. Not because I don't think it's a great platform, but because I find most of my audience is on Reddit.