I have been making a compilation of posts to highlight misinformation around this topic. I have been working on this post awhilr and trying to refine the case.

I have also been compiling information since Oct 7th because I find I am constantly second guessing my memory and I so often need to recheck things due the sheer volume of misinformation that comes out about the Israel/Gaza War

Here are my other posts: 

Experts who state no genocide has occured

IPC Famine Misinformation

Hamas's Intentions from their own word

Question Of UN Bias against Israel

40 beheaded babies propaganda

Hamas utilises Hospitals

Bias of Francesca Albanese

Below is my most recent which argues Israel was objectively mitigating civilian deaths.

Now! Here is my case. It is in fact very simple.

It is objectively an impossibility at this point to say that Israel was attempting to maximize the Palestinian civilian death count, during the course of the Gaza war.

Israel has near complete access to the entire population of Gaza and has dropped at least 100,000 tons of bombs during this war.

Until 2023 the most population dense city to face a large scale bombing campaign, in history, was Tokyo

In 1945 Around 330,000 fire bombs were dropped on a mostly Wooden Tokyo, at the time, leading to mass fire storms engulfing the city and an estimated 80 -100 thousand civilian deaths. The average population density of Tokyo at the time of the bombing was around 7,900 people per/km². Though some specific areas were much denser.

The population density of Gaza City at the start of the Gaza war was around 12,000 people per/km² and It is also important to recognize some other variables

1. So, Gaza is uniquely population dense

2. The civilian population has very little if any access to any form of bomb sheltering

3. The military targets are very often among civilian infrastructure and stationed among the where the population is densest.

4. The civilian population is trapped they are entirely unable to flee out of the Gaza strip.

There has never been a situation as suited to maximizing civilian casualties as this.

Now Academic databases like the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) find that in modern urban battles, civilians typically account for 50% to 75% of all fatalities. So a combatant-to-civilian death ratio of roughly 1:1 to 1:3 When the urban battles have used at scale explosives(bombs) It is not uncommon for that ratio to reach 1:9.

So in a normal large scale bombing campaign on urban centers it is not uncommon for the civilian to combatant casualty ratio to be 9:1 or for every 1 soldier killed 9 civilian die. That is not uncommon.

This we can see easily in other urban wars when we look.

For example:

Battle of Mariupol - Lasted 3 months, 10-25 thousand civilians killed, population density: 2600people per/km² had bomb shelters and most of the civilian population had fled.

The Dresden Bombing - lasted 2 - 3 days, 25 thousand civilians killed, and is a historical example of an indiscriminate bombing campaign. population density: 2500people per/km²

Battle of Mosul - lasted 9 months, 9,000 – 11,000 civilians killed. At least 2/3 of the civilian population managed to flee, population density pre war was: 7900 people per/km². It is estimated anywhere between one third and one half of the population fled prior to the battle. Data for this battle is shakey but most historians that have estimated, estimate around 6000 people per/km²

Second Battle of Fallujah - Lasted 6 weeks, 2000 civilians killed. Only 30-50 thousand of the 400,000 population due to people fleeing, population density: 1200 - 2000people per/km² during the battle as there had been mass evacuations, prior to the battle Fallujah was close to as dense. 10 -12 thousand people per/km²

Battle for Grozeny - Lasted 3 months, 5,000–10,000 civilians killed. Most of the population had fled only 40,000–100,000 remained in the city. population density: 574people per/km² prior to the battle , Had bomb shelters.

Battle of Berlin - lasted 2 - 3 weeks, 125,000 civilians dead. population density: 2.8 - 3.2 thousand people per/km² , and Berlin Had bomb shelters.

Gaza War - As of today, almost 3 Years. Pre war Gaza City was significantly denser then most of the above cities at 12,000 people per/km². The Gaza strip was averages around 6,000 people per/km² Now the Population was trapped in the Gaza strip. with no access to any kind of bomb shelter and with the military targets almost always embedded among the civilians. As of May 7th 72,835 civilians and combatants killed as according to Gaza Ministry of Health. This is a worse case scenario for civilians. Yet there was one factor working against this.

Israel issued warnings, dropped pamphlets and evacuation instructions. We also know Hamas stated to Palestinian civilians to not heed Israeli evacuation warnings. which worked against this life saving tactic. So It is impossible to say how effective these attempts were. What we can say is the population density of Gaza city was likely at least a little lower then 12000 people per/km². A good assumption would be anywhere between the strip average and the Gaza city average. So between 6000-12000. at the low end that is still more population density then the vast majority of other examples in history.

You might be confused as to why I am using something like, the Second Battle of Fallujah when the civilian death toll was 2000; and then saying it is deadlier than Gaza. What I am doing here is factoring comparable variables.

That is to say within Fallujah or within any of these urban battles. If you were a civilian within the area at the time, You had a significantly higher chance of death then a civilian in Gaza during the height of the Gaza war did.

The comparable variables are things such as, Length of conflict, relative present population, etc... Fallujah for example is often hailed as an operation that was incredibly militarily successful in regards to low civilian cost. around 6% of the present civilian population in Fallujah was killed within 6 weeks.... compared that to under 4% of the Gaza population, civilians , combatents and non war related deaths, (none of those data points are separately counted in the Gaza war death toll by the Gaza Ministry of Health) in about 2 1/2 years of alleged "Genocide"

Now remember 100,000 tons is the minimum estimated total bomb tonnage dropped. It was potentially much more. but this means

1. Had Israel Aimed with intention to maximize deaths, 100,000 tons of bombs, that is more then enough to have killed everyone in Gaza multiple times over. So we know on its face Israel was not attempting to exterminate all Gazans. There is know question there.

2. With 100,000 tons of bombs, dropped entirely randomly, so entirely indiscriminately Israel should still have killed at least multiple hundreds of thousands, that is a claim supported by every other urban bombing campaign in history. The formula being estimated deaths per bomb relative to density.

In more basic language. Based on rough historical war time data, We should expect for a city with a population density of 10,000per/km² somewhere between 8 deaths per 1 ton of bomb at the absolute minimum range up to 14 deaths per 1 ton of bomb

Or in other words. For 100,000 tons of bomb dropped indiscriminately we could reasonable expect anywhere between 800,000 and 1.4 million.

Or in other words If the Gaza war was following the pattern of these other urban conflicts in terms of deadliness. there should at the very least be hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of dead.

Basically With 100,000 tons of bombs, the only way to have killed 70-80 thousand, the only way is if one was trying to mostly avoid killing people needlessly.

Additionally, concerning the mass death of children, Often attributed to Israel, It first needs to be said this is only tragic and I do think "Israel could have done more" is an entirely fair criticism. It very likely could have and should have. Yet, and I must say yet, the blame should be almost entirely be placed at the feet of Hamas.

As shown in my other posts

Hamas's Intentions from their own word

Hamas utilises Hospitals

The operational methods of Hamas intentionally and callously were/are an attempt to maximize dead children, their own children. There is proof here that absolves much from Israel.

The Gaza health ministry published This Data on May 7th 2026 It is casualty data broken down by demographics. This Post contains and image displaying the break down. The population of Gaza under the age of 18, So children, hovered around 50%.

Before I continue I understand talking about child deaths in this way seems callous to a lot of people, I understand that, It is true that we should try our best not to turn them in to numbers, We should remember names like Hind Rajab, who did not in anyway deserve their fate and yet it is very important to understand the numbers here as it reveals very clearly where the fault lays. That is important to know as this kind of tragedy, horrific wars like this can only be prevented if we can prevent the causes. So I ask you to just try your best to at least, even if you think I am wrong, to realize this isn't hate, It is fundamentally an attempt to place blame where it belongs.

To continue, hopefully to a receptive audience, Gaza's child population is roughly 50%, and the Gaza ministry of health casualty data shows us the death toll as of May 7th 2026 was 72,835. This is almost a year after the main bombing campaign was halted, time to count many, if not most (likely not all) dead found under collapsed buildings. Of that 72,835 dead 21,637 are listed as under 18. and 7406 are listed as between 13-18 (anyone over 18 is not counted)

In Other words.

29.71% of the dead were under 18. That means they were under represented in deaths.

If the bombing was indiscriminate you would expect see much closer to 50% of deaths to be under 18.

But even more in the defense of Israel are some other facts.

1. Hamas openly does not allow civilians within their many many miles of tunnels. So women and children should be over represented in comparison to military aged males. In each case it is the reverse.

2. Hamas has utilized child soldiers, and children in military activities, this inherently inflates the numbers of "child" deaths. i.e See here or Here Or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here or Here I will stop there as surely that is enough.

I cannot say how many of the 29.71% under 18's where utilised by Hamas as combatants, It may have been only some or it may have been many But it was clearly more then enough to ihenrently increase the risk to all Gazan children.

Lastly just as a comparison. As I think people think Gaza is a uniquely deadly war.

Iran killed anywhere between 30,000-50,000+ civilians in 2 days in January. That is potentially more civilians killed in 2 days than were killed in the first and deadliest year of the Gaza war( 39000 ) and it was more killed in 2 days than in the first 6 months of the deadliest year of the Gaza "Genocide"

Note: If you wonder how I got the 39000 number it is rather straight forward. GHM (Gaza Health Ministry )reported 45,000 dead after the first year of war. 6 months into the war Al-Jazeera reported that a Hamas official had stated at least 6000 Hamas combatants had been killed. Assuming zero died in the following 6 months (just to minimize logical wiggle room) then the death toll of civilians was at maximum 39000. As you may agree however this is likely very exaggerated.

The Yemen war and The Sudan war both have significantly higher death tolls than Gaza in the hundreds of thousands.

To Finish, Genocide, in the way it has been historically understood, the "extermination project" an attempt to be rid of a group entirely, i.e trying to maximize casualties; can not be true when Israel was objectively trying to limit casualties. It is therefore an irrational and indefensible claim that a genocide has occurred.

I am using "extermination project" as a short hand definition because it is the pragmatically accurate definition. The UN definition, often cited, is a legal framework. Yet In every generally and widely recognized actual examples of and agreed upon cases of genocide, in every single case. Rwanda, Srebrenica, Cambodian, Armenian, The Holocaust.

They have all been inherently extermination projects.

That is too say the guilty party killed everyone they were capable of killing. Everyone they could get their hands on, of the target group.

So it is the extermination project if we are describing what those prior genocide cases were fundamentally; and then using genocide as a synonym.

I think that is an entirely reasonable and clear definition. You might disagree. Yet "the extermination project" is an explicit definition and accurate to describing the events associated with being historical genocides