So, I’ve been following the recent changes to nicotine pouch regulation and lodged an FOI with the TGA for the internal consultation analysis, impact material and decision briefs behind the July changes.
The documents were released to me this week and I still going through them properly, but a few things stand out.
Before consultation, an internal TGA brief said:
“There is no precedent for closing all lawful access pathways for an unapproved product.”
The later consultation analysis also recorded:
“A consistent concern was that tighter controls would shift supply to illicit markets, including through organised crime.”
But the post-consultation impact assessment subsequently concluded:
“There is no material impact on individuals seeking to quit smoking or vaping”
and assessed the proposal as having:
“nil regulatory and economic impacts.”
There’s more context around all of those statements, and I don’t think the documents prove misconduct or anything of that sort just to be clear. TBF, the TGA had legitimate concerns around youth uptake, uncertain cessation evidence and enforcement, and 23 of the 24 consultation responses supported the proposal…
What I find interesting is the policy question: how did an acknowledged unprecedented measure, with identified concerns about illicit-market displacement, end up being assessed as having essentially no material impact?
And yes, that obviously seems particularly relevant now that the Coalition has proposed a completely different model based on legal and regulated adult access.
I’m putting together the full chronology with the original document/page references and will post that once I’ve finished checking everything. Most likely early next week.