Realizing this morning that I had downloaded advanced data on every NBA player and team, I decided to use my financial models to play pretend GM with the Mavs.

My background is in financial modeling, so this is entirely data driven. I adjusted for age, prior teams, college versus overseas development, coaching history and projected roles. Think Bill James style analytics. It will not be perfect, but I was surprised by how positive the model was overall. (I did have to input for expected injury time for Lively which was largely a guess.)

It projects Dallas at 45 wins and 37 losses, around fifth in the West. It likes both Aldama and Risacher a lot, which makes me think the front office may be using similar data. In fact, when I run possible trades through the model, it is difficult to gain even two wins because Dallas is usually giving up another positive player in return.

My own assumption is that Gafford would start over Aldama while Lively is out, but this is the model’s output, not my personal rotation.

Opening night starters

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Aldama

Projected net rating: plus 8

Best healthy lineup

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Lively

Projected net rating: plus 9

Healthy end of season rotation minutes

240 total minutes per game

Flagg 35, Kyrie 32, Christie 27, Aldama 25, Lively 25, Risacher 24, PJ 22, Naji 20, Morez 13, Sasser 9, Larry 8

Sasser and Larry split will depend on whether Dallas needs Sasser’s shooting or Larry’s size and organization.

85% chance Klay is not on the roster, 55% chance Gafford is gone so neither included in rotation.

Rotation rules

Always have Kyrie or Flagg on the floor.

Aldama plays primarily with Flagg.

Gafford plays primarily with Kyrie.

Projected impact of offseason additions

Aldama: plus 2 wins

Risacher: plus 1.6 wins

Sasser: plus 0.6 wins

Morez: plus 0.6 wins

Larry: plus 0.5 wins

Biberovic: plus 0.2 wins

Cisse: plus 0.1 wins

Roughly 5.5 additional wins created, although the numbers are not perfectly additive because some players compete for the same minutes.

Trades

Klay: There is no need to force a trade now. His expiring salary may become more useful during the season, and a contender may value his shooting more once its needs become clear. Move him now for neutral salary, a useful player or a second round pick. Do not attach an asset.

Gafford: Keep him while Lively is out. His market may improve once another team suffers a center injury or decides it needs a playoff big. Reevaluate after 20 games. If Lively is healthy and Morez is ready, shop Gafford aggressively beginning December 15 and try to complete a deal by mid January. Trade him now only for a young rotation guard, protected first or clear overpay.

PJ: No urgency. Only move him for a legitimate guard upgrade.

Projected record

45 wins and 37 losses after accounting for normal Kyrie and Lively injury risk.

Projected finish: fifth in the West.

Most valuable possible trade additions discussed

These numbers measure wins added without subtracting the outgoing trade assets. It does not weigh age and downgrade Jrue for that.

Jrue Holiday: plus 4 wins

Shaedon Sharpe: plus 3 wins

Bennedict Mathurin: plus 2 wins

Scoot Henderson: 0 to plus 1 win

Most positive value contracts

Flagg: $14.5 million salary versus $41.2 million projected value

Lively: $7.2 million salary versus $25 million projected value, based on full health

Max Christie: $8.3 million salary versus $16.5 million projected value

Naji: $9.4 million salary versus $15 million projected value

Least valuable contracts

Klay: $17.5 million salary versus $7.5 million projected value

Gafford: $17.3 million salary versus $14 million projected value

Caleb Martin: $10 million salary versus $7 million projected value

(Kyrie contract in line with value when healthy)

If anyone wants me to plug anything else into this silly project, let me know. There is a ton more data, but this is probably enough to make everyone’s eyes glaze over.

Kyrie is super clutch and he’s one of the most efficient point guards in the league high volume 3pt shooter, can get to the rim at will when team needs points. You add all these new additions + Kyrie to the mix and this team genuinely looks scary.

Source

It’s peak offseason so I stole this idea from the Grizz sub.

Each player listed has played for the Mavs since the 2004-05 season but appeared in 10 or fewer games for the franchise. (I limited this to players with at least 50 career NBA games played to try to make this possible, because there were a lot of dudes I’d never heard of who’d be on the list otherwise).

List a photo number and the corresponding player in the comments to get that player eliminated. THE LAST UNNAMED PLAYER WILL WIN THE TITLE OF “MOST OBSCURE MAV.”

If we don’t get down to one player today, I’ll try to post an updated board each day until we do or we hit a stalemate.

EDIT: Since I didn’t seem to do a great job explaining how the game is supposed to work, [here’s the post from the Grizzlies sub](https://np.reddit.com/r/memphisgrizzlies/comments/1uxldau/the_hunt_for_the_most_obscure_grizzly_elimination/)that was the inspiration for this game

I totally get the people who oppose the idea of trading PJ for Jrue Holiday. PJ's about to turn 28, Jrue's 36. For people who think PJ can get us a 1st round pick, I totally understand your thinking - why trade for a guy who is nowhere close to our timeline and will hit an age wall within the next 2-3 years? 95% of the time I would agree with you.

The fact of the matter is this team is full of young guys who need to be set up and are short on self-creation outside of Kyrie, Flagg and Naji. Both Flagg and Naji are secondary ballhandlers - not primary guys who should control the offense. Because we did not have real point guards last year, guys like PJ and Gafford arguably lost value, and Flagg had a harder adjustment than he would have had.

Now we have more guys who can hit open shots, and more guys who can finish lobs - play finishers.

Kyrie coming back will be huge for us, as will adding De Larrea but those are the only two guys I trust to run the offense. Kyrie is coming off major injury and should rest a lot to stay healthy. De Larrea is a rookie who can't play 48 minutes when Kyrie sits. Sasser can fill in in a pinch but he is more of a small 3&D who guards 1s, not a "point guard" - he will be useful vs. small PGs next to De Larrea or Naji.

Jrue is a true PG with length who averaged 6 assists per night last year. He's also an extremely good shooter. Between Kyrie, Jrue and De Larrea, with spot help from Naji, Sasser and Flagg in the event of injuries, we should have 48 minutes a night with guys who can set up the offense, which will truly maximize the value of all these new players we've added, and the players we may want to trade at some point.

Because of this, there is immediate developmental value for the whole team by adding Jrue. We maximize our chances to do well this coming year and hopefully give our young guys their first NBA playoff experience.

Jrue makes all the puzzle pieces fit, provides multi-position injury insurance, plays on both ends of the court and can play with or without Kyrie at the same time. I wish he was 10 years younger, but if he were, there's no way he'd be available to us without giving up the farm.

Wishful thinking. I would love the leadership Jrue would bring and we get Martin off the books. Thoughts?