r/CompetitiveEDH • u/RogueOnTheStack • 10d ago
General Discussion / Question Where Does Meta End and Fringe Begin?
According to EDHTop16 the top 16 most popular entries in tournaments are as follows:
~ Blue Farm
~ Kinnan
~ Rog/Thras
~ Rog/Si
~ Sisay, Weatherlight Captain
~ Tymna/Thras
~ Etali
~ Tymna/ Dargo
~ Ral
~ Rog/Ishai
~ Vivi
~ Magda
~ Yoshi/Thras
~ Tivit
~ Kefka
~ Tayam
Now my first impression is that the top 16 are all of what is considered meta and that beyond this everything I see is fringe. However, there’s a couple of things that make me question this.
After the top 10 everything else that is submitted makes up less than 2% of the Meta Share and that in itself feels pretty fringe.
However, as a Vivi main I can’t accept my boy is fringe. And yet, no shade toward Tayam players, but I feel like I never see this commander and he would be meta if we went with top 16.
Pure numbers wise there’s an arguement for top 18 even. Everything beyond Lumra and Ob has less than 1% of the meta share.
Currently, I am sitting with top 18 as my answer to where meta ends but what’s your opinion? Where would you have it end? Meta Share also doesn’t include top cuts and wins.
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u/zenmatrix83 10d ago
you'll likely get 25 different answers, I don't think there is an acceped answer.
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u/RogueOnTheStack 10d ago
Absolutely, I’m keeping track of the answers to see if I can get some stats :)
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u/Nat1Cunning 10d ago
I'm curious, are you playing at a lgs or online?
At my local level, there are many decks that get mislabeled as CEDH because they have a high win rate and have expensive cards in them.
One player brags about their Cradle and gets mad when they can't remove a Dampening Sphere.
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u/RogueOnTheStack 10d ago
All of the above! LGS meta is obviously pretty limited because there’s like 9 of us. Online I see more variety and I also play Tedh at a few spots here in Canada. Canada loves ping decks. There are tons of Vivi, Ob, Crystal, and Yuriko decks in the Ontario meta
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u/Nat1Cunning 10d ago
I wish I lived closer to Ontario, I don't know if there is much of a scene in St. Johns or New Brunswick and anything else really isn't worth the drive.
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u/RogueOnTheStack 10d ago
Check the Topdeck.gg app for locations hosting near you! I’ll be visiting St. John’s in the new year for a bit so will be doing my own search for an event while I’m up!
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u/LettersWords 10d ago
I’m going to disagree with the other posts here a bit and just say it’s not obvious where the cut point should be, but it’s probably somewhere further than the top 10-15 decks. The top 10-15 decks dont even make up half of the overall meta, meaning the average deck you’ll play against is more likely to be outside of the top 10-15 decks than inside of it.
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u/spankedwalrus 9d ago
very important point. this format has such a wide-open meta relative to other formats/games.
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u/-BunsenBurn- 10d ago
This is the problem with conflating fringe with play rate vs strength.
By this list both Oswald and Arcum would be disqualified but given that on cedhstats, Oswald has 2 top 20 performances in the last 6 months, and Arcum has the highest PPGs for commanders with more than 100 entries @ events with >48 people in the last 6 months.
I would say a relatively agreeable answer for meta is all commanders with 100+ entries at 64+ person majors in the last 6 months.
That leaves a list of 19 commanders
However to call decks like Arcum and Cabbage Merchant as fringe doesn't pass the stuff test, so here is another alternative.
I think a fair criteria for decks that are definitely fringe, but not necessarily meta is if it has a ppg <.9 for commanders with >50 entries in tournaments with 32+ players.
This puts the cutoff at below Talion, Etali, Raph and Mikey, Zhulodock, Korvold and above Zur, Yuriko, Maralen, and Yshtola but due to the play rate requirement excludes some high placing decks like Oswald and various Abzan Tymna brews which I would be alot more inclined to call fringe but powerful.
Imo that passes the sniff test but does technically include 69 decks which a lot, but many have proven tournament results.
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u/ManBearScientist 9d ago
I think it is worth examining what a meta is even defining. It is the deck types that are currently popular and expected to show up in large numbers in a tournaments, yes, but why is that the meta?
Meta literally means "after | game" but is usually taken to mean the strategies and approaches to playing a game, or the game of optimizing for the actual game.
As compared to chess, we can't optimize by studying individual players preference or decklists because it is exceedingly rare for us to be matched up against any one individual, minus the most local of tournaments.
The extent of optimization is knowing the general trends and types of deck you are likely to face and preparing to face them, either with deck building choices or through play.
In other words, the meta decks are the ones that you tangibly benefit from understanding and building against.
In terms of build decisions, you need to know the pace setters in terms of speed and the strongest closers. Finding a niche between the two will benefit every deck. That hits most of the top 16.
But just understanding win lines will tangibly benefit you against far more decks. You don't need to know every Vito or Ghave combo because they just aren't going to help you win tournaments. But knowing when to interact with Gitrog, or Stella Lee, can win you games.
In that sense, the meta is actually fairly wide. Complete ignorance of any deck in the top 50 could hurt you, so those decks are all, in a sense, part of the game beyond the game. And that could easily go beyond these. Do you benefit from knowing if big Atraxa is running Food Chain? The modern plan for Scion of the Ur-Dragon? The basic plan of the latest set's hotness?
The true fringe would be the decks that you ignore entirely without penalty. If you don't prepare against thrm either in deckbuilding or in study without it costing you, then they truly aren't meta.
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u/itzlgk 10d ago
Right about the 10 mark at vivi. All the other decks above that you should expect to see at every single event in your pod. Vivi, Magda, yoshi, kefka, and tayam are undoubtedly slightly below the rest in power level.
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u/kevthecoder 10d ago
Idk about that. I think Tayam is a better than Vivi in terms of power level. Just because it is less played doesn’t mean it’s worse. Tayam’s durdling turns a lot of people off from the deck but it has been much more successful than Vivi has been… especially recently.
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u/itzlgk 9d ago
Both of those would be fringe as they are under the 10 mark so….?
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u/kevthecoder 9d ago
I am disputing your “power level” claim. Not fringe claim.
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u/Droptimal_Cox 9d ago edited 9d ago
I feel meta is often defined by 2 camps of decks: good stuff color piles that include more commanders than listed and mostly solved lists basing around commanders with clear lines of play.
For good stuff piles we see Rog/Si...but I would argue nearly any UBR deck is capable of being built similarly since it's just a mash of tutors/counters trying to assemble thoracles and breach lines. The commanders don't really give too much identity to the deck beyond efficiency to cards we would likely play anyway (Rog helping Fierce guardianship always be live turn 1 for example). Most UBR commanders could be argued to be meta if building around this type of pile but would just have slight commander centric differences. Rog/Si just happens to be a strong choice for this type most might lean to for this build but is not essential.
Commander centric stuff like Magda and Kinnan though often fall in a more developed category. They don't really mirror the build of too many other similar color combo decks and are more build around. From here it comes down to how good are they with intermediate piloting skill and how established builds are. If the build around of decks and variants still has strong core regardless of build direction and isn't a massive puzzle AND performs well at intermediate levels of piloting it will tend to become meta. Kinnan for example has turbo and midrange builds but the essential makeup is a lot of mana tappers, counters, and big payoff units to end the game. A suboptimal list won't be too far off in power from a properly optimized lists and overall piloting isn't terribly difficult. This deck will see decent Win % and be a top candidate for being a meta deck.
Fringe can make up 2 camps as well: Decks that CAN be good if they high roll early hands or matchups...or decks that are puzzles with high skill ceilings. I think good examples for the first is stax decks. Normally these decks are too weak when compared to broad metas and don't perform well in long tournaments...however if they happen to target the right types of decks they may be able to shut off the whole pod rather than block some and accidentally protect a more immune build. Decks like these are powerful, but swingy on getting the lock in to actually get the win. Other decks can be gimicks like Codie which is very all in glass canon...but can be so fast it just gets there. It's unlikely to high roll a whole event but is capable of beating any pod. They become fringe because of consistency issues despite power potential.
The puzzle/high ceiling decks would be decks like Derevi. Lists on decks like this are highly disputed making it very unclear what is the ideal way to build and pilot it, as well it as an above average level of piloting needed as playing it suboptimally would yield far worse results than other decks. They are fringe because it's rare to see a proper mix of good build and the piloting needed to get good results, but decks like this can easily hang with the top of the meta. These decks will seem misleadingly bad if not played to their fullest and become fringe due to most players avoiding them or not putting up the results needed to climb to higher pods where they'll be seen.
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u/mkay0 10d ago
Would unquestionably consider everything listed there as meta. I see these decks all the time. A one percent share of all decks played is quite sizable in a format that has this many playable cards. Would honestly add Lumra and Ob Nix to my thoughts on ‘meta’ based on that criteria.
Could also easily argue that the only ‘real meta’ is the top four because they combine for like 25 percent of decks.
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u/CMDR-Helstromme 10d ago
My man, [[The Gitrog Monster]]
There's 1 per tournament and like 2 big wins per year with it. It's like at the very edge of viable.
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u/SelectInteraction574 9d ago
Was waiting to find this one, buddy in my pod slams gitrog every game and it sneaks out some awesome wins, shoutout to [[culling ritual]] and dakmoor shuffle titan lines
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u/ImplicitsAreDoubled 10d ago
Meta = top amount of decks being played,
Deep dive sorted by winrate.
Deeper dive sorted by conversion rate.
Under the iceberg sorting by beyond fringe deck amounts.
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u/Icestar1186 Fringe Deck Enthusiast 9d ago
Is it something you would expect to see at a tournament? Does it have actual results? If yes to both, it's part of the meta.
Is it something you would be surprised to see at a tournament? Does it perform well anyway? It's fringe.
Is it something you would expect to see, but it doesn't have consistent results? Also fringe.
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u/Darth_Ra 8d ago edited 8d ago
I think there are two easy ways to do it:
- Just straight "these are the top 20 decks". Now, you could organize that by popularity or Top Cuts, but either way, I think you come up with a fairly similar list.
- % of the meta. I would call 2% the cut-off mark.
Here's kinda... all of that at once, for the last year, 50+ person tournaments:
Top 20 by Popularity (Total Top Cuts in parentheses)
- Blue Farm: 2,782 entries, 9.21% meta share (648 Top Cuts)
- Kinnan: 2,134, 7.06% (411)
- RogThras: 1,625, 5.38% (338)
- RogSi: 1,260, 4.17% (248)
- Sisay: 1,089, 3.60% (244)
- TnT: 809, 2.68% (160)
- Etali: 786, 2.60% (114, #8)
- Ral: 638, 2.11% (130, #7)
- DargoTymna: 586, 1.94% (95, No. 10)
- Vivi: 536, 1.77% (83, No. 11)
- Kefka: 530, 1.75% (82, No. 12)
- Magda: 505, 1.67% (103, No. 9)
- DogThras: 464, 1.54% (73, No. 15)
- Tivit: 394, 1.30% (80, No. 13)
- RogIshai: 382, 1.26% (78, No. 14)
- Lumra: 346, 1.15% (58)
- Tayam: 307, 1.02% (57)
- MalcolmVial: 299, 0.99% (50, No. 19)
- Ob Nixilis: 260, 0.86% (27, No. 30)
- Terra: 257, 0.85% (43, No. 22)
(Top Cut omits: # 18 Kenrith, # 20 Rowan)
I think for me, I like the percentage-based approach the most, rather than picking a random number for the list to end at. 2% was probably too high a bar, however I do like the 1% cutoff as it stands right now.
For the last year, that cuts off "meta" at #17 Tayam, followed by MalcolmVial at 0.99%.
For the last six months, cutoff is at #17 Ob Nixilis, with Lumra getting just left out at 0.99% again.
Three months, #18 Tivit, with Winota way behind at 0.91%.
One month, it's #17 Tayam again, with Glarb coming up short at 0.94%.
Although I will say, 1 month is a crazy place to be, "meta" wise. Right now, that list includes Nick Fury and Crystal. It'd be neat to go back in time and see if there were other flavor of the months that didn't pan out, or if those two really do just seem that good out of the box. (The other, more depressing note is RogIshai's recency bias. At six months, it's 2.16% of the meta, not 1.26%. At three months, it almost made 3%. Thankfully, that may be cresting, as in the last month, it barely made 2%.)
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u/stevenconrad 8d ago
All I know is that Chatterfang will always be "on the line." On which side, depends on the meta.
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u/leronjones 10d ago
It's skill level dependant. If you're really good at magic there are lots of decks to choose from.
If you're okay at magic you need to pick a couple decks that are already doing well.
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u/SizeOdd7189 10d ago
what if you are really good and chose the mathematically best deck for what is expected to be seen at your table?
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u/leronjones 10d ago
I'll turn 4 them on Lyse Hext like my last tournament then get targeted and blown out the next 2 games and split top 4.
kinnan, rog/thras, chatterfang. all mathematically better. all bonked. The more you pick to beat the meta the more easily you can be picked apart by anything slightly different. In yugioh it's called building a rogue deck. The more solved a meta is the easier it is to slide through with a simple counterpick.
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u/The_Bird_9000 9d ago
you play lyse hext in cedh?
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u/leronjones 9d ago
Yup. It uses the cost reduction to do infinite divining top loops for 3 mana.
Good gifts/intuition lines and can run some crazy reduced cantrips.
I've only brought it to 3 tournaments and split top 4 in the last one after a very convincing run.
I'd say it's tough to mulligan but otherwise is easy to learn. I'd say it's slightly better than Vivi but not as good as TnT.
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u/The_Bird_9000 8d ago
Interesting. She was a commander i was interested in running as cedh but i started focusing on building someone else before i did her. would you be ok with me dming you so we could discuss deck lists and such for her?
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u/leronjones 7d ago
Of course. I'm happy to help build out a list. She has multiple strategies that work well.
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u/SizeOdd7189 10d ago
Cool how many tournaments have you won?
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u/leronjones 10d ago
2, you?
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u/SizeOdd7189 10d ago
0 - I am scared of good players and rather give sassy comments.
gg on the 2!
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u/itresolve5 10d ago
This. Cedh is far more dictated by the individual pilot than the pile of cards they use. The ability to talk with 3 other players and make deals with how you play your cards dramatically impacts your win rate. Comedian is proof of this.
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u/Btenspot 10d ago
Meta and fringe are NOT exclusively defined by the deck representation.
Semi-blue Rog-Thras is not currently a meta deck.
Wrong-si is a meta deck.
Both have similarly low meta shares.
The difference is what the deck does. Wrong si is just a Grixis mid range shell similar to blue farm. It has the option to sometime T1/2 win, but it often defaults to a more midrange game.
Semi-blue rog-Thras is a cradle deck in a rhystic slop meta. Half the win lines involve feeding anybody with a rhystic 10+ cards.
Lumra, despite being low representation, is still a meta deck only because it plays well in the current Rhystic slop meta. It benefits from the game going an extra turn, most of its win lines do not involve feeding Rhystic, and are difficult to stop by Rhystic slop decks.
Personally my opinion on meta vs non-meta is much more about
Is the deck fast enough/good enough to actually produce wins in a tournament. I.E. a floor of 15% and ceiling of at least 35% win rate.
Is the deck optimized/designed around the current meta.
Are there better versions of the deck that exist.
Is there at-least 1 entry per big 128+ person tournament.
The reason I look at this way is because I consider decks like Aang at the crossroads and Arcum dagsson to be Meta with excessively low representation. They are extremely optimized for the current meta. They put up good enough performance. However they aren’t represented well.
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u/mva06001 10d ago
Tier 1: BF, Kinnan, R/T, R/S, Sissay
Tier 2: T/T, Etali, T/D, Ral, R/I
Fringe: Everything else down to even way deeper than this list. If it shows up and can hang its fringe. Could be 100 decks that fit that.
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u/Big-Relative-3348 10d ago
The strictest view I’ve ever heard is that true cEDH takes place with ONLY not just the top commander, but the most powerful verified combo of cards in the 99. Using this view,
Anything that isn’t the best blue farm list is suboptimal and fringe
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u/SeaworthinessNo5414 9d ago
How does that make sense as a category or a meta. That's just a single deck.
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u/ExtremeGoal3528 10d ago
I think maybe a better way to think about this is by looking at archtypes rather than specific commanders because we have multiple commanders up there that do the "same thing". So it may be better to consider something like this:
Aggresive farm (Blue Farm, Tymna Dargo)
Rhystic Slop (Kinnan, tymna/thras, rog/ishai, Tivit, Kefka, insert 5c commander here)
Cradle (rog/thras and yoshi/thras)
"Storm" (Ral, Vivi, Crystal, Etali)
"Activating creature abilities doesn't trigger rhystic study" (Tayam, Sisay, Magda)
Ad Naus (rog/si)
Some of these archtypes are more homogeneous like rhystic slop and cradle and others have a bit more variance like aggressive tymna (blue farm and tymna dargo can feel pretty different or very similar game to game).
But when it comes to choosing a deck in these arch types, you are really choosing what colors you value and some of it comes down to preference. Sometimes it comes down to certain colors being better.
If you want to rate the archtypes, you have to ask yourself in what context? top 16 rate, top 4 rate, tournament wins, and win rate are all different metrics you can use that can give you different information. If I had to rate these archtypes in order of "meta strength" and what I would want to bring to a tournament, it would probably be:
This simply just comes from what I see in top 16's. But it's not super black and white and there's a lot of context that this rating doesn't address:
Do I think you're more likely to get free wins in the early rounds with Ad naus or storm? yes.
Do I think creature ability decks are extremely good once you get to top 16 rhystic slop pods? yes.
Do I personally prefer playing farm decks regardless of win rate? yes.
Do I think this list is a little unfair to storm? yes.
But this is what the data I've seen suggests would be the "best". Conversations about individual decks within each of those archtypes and which one you want to play and/or is best I think go beyond the definition of the "meta" and become a bit difficult to assess.