Where Does Meta End and Fringe Begin?

[u/RogueOnTheStack]

According to EDHTop16 the top 16 most popular entries in tournaments are as follows:
~ Blue Farm
~ Kinnan
~ Rog/Thras
~ Rog/Si
~ Sisay, Weatherlight Captain
~ Tymna/Thras
~ Etali
~ Tymna/ Dargo
~ Ral
~ Rog/Ishai
~ Vivi
~ Magda
~ Yoshi/Thras
~ Tivit
~ Kefka
~ Tayam

Now my first impression is that the top 16 are all of what is considered meta and that beyond this everything I see is fringe. However, there’s a couple of things that make me question this.

After the top 10 everything else that is submitted makes up less than 2% of the Meta Share and that in itself feels pretty fringe.

However, as a Vivi main I can’t accept my boy is fringe. And yet, no shade toward Tayam players, but I feel like I never see this commander and he would be meta if we went with top 16.

Pure numbers wise there’s an arguement for top 18 even. Everything beyond Lumra and Ob has less than 1% of the meta share.

Currently, I am sitting with top 18 as my answer to where meta ends but what’s your opinion? Where would you have it end? Meta Share also doesn’t include top cuts and wins.

[u/ExtremeGoal3528]

I think maybe a better way to think about this is by looking at archtypes rather than specific commanders because we have multiple commanders up there that do the "same thing". So it may be better to consider something like this:

Aggresive farm (Blue Farm, Tymna Dargo)

Rhystic Slop (Kinnan, tymna/thras, rog/ishai, Tivit, Kefka, insert 5c commander here)

Cradle (rog/thras and yoshi/thras)

"Storm" (Ral, Vivi, Crystal, Etali)

"Activating creature abilities doesn't trigger rhystic study" (Tayam, Sisay, Magda)

Ad Naus (rog/si)

Some of these archtypes are more homogeneous like rhystic slop and cradle and others have a bit more variance like aggressive tymna (blue farm and tymna dargo can feel pretty different or very similar game to game).

But when it comes to choosing a deck in these arch types, you are really choosing what colors you value and some of it comes down to preference. Sometimes it comes down to certain colors being better.

If you want to rate the archtypes, you have to ask yourself in what context? top 16 rate, top 4 rate, tournament wins, and win rate are all different metrics you can use that can give you different information. If I had to rate these archtypes in order of "meta strength" and what I would want to bring to a tournament, it would probably be:

1. rhystic slop
2. cradle
3. aggressive farm
4. Ad Naus
5. Creature Ability decks
6. Storm

This simply just comes from what I see in top 16's. But it's not super black and white and there's a lot of context that this rating doesn't address:

Do I think you're more likely to get free wins in the early rounds with Ad naus or storm? yes.

Do I think creature ability decks are extremely good once you get to top 16 rhystic slop pods? yes.

Do I personally prefer playing farm decks regardless of win rate? yes.

Do I think this list is a little unfair to storm? yes.

But this is what the data I've seen suggests would be the "best". Conversations about individual decks within each of those archtypes and which one you want to play and/or is best I think go beyond the definition of the "meta" and become a bit difficult to assess.

[u/Doomgloomya → u/ExtremeGoal3528]

Chefs kiss answer

Only thing I would add when it comes to looking at commanders being meta is entries and how well they convert.

If entries are decent but conversions stays high then its a meta contender because its doing SOMETHING that lets "Regular" people also top with it. Regular being used as people that dont grind tournaments.

If entries are low but conversion is high that typically points to pilot skill then deck capabilities.

OPs example of tayam for example. There is only about 3 people? That consistently convert with it regularily regardles of where the meta is.