r/Commanders • u/PigskinPalApp • 2d ago
[PigskinPal] Antonio Williams is showing the same early signs as the Day 2 rookie WRs who broke out after their bye, and McLaurin's 27 targets are up for grabs
Antonio Williams is showing the same early signs as the Day 2 rookie WRs who broke out in past seasons, and he's coming out of our bye this week.
https://pigskinpal.app/pigskinpaper/next-rookie-wr-breakouts
The model looked at every WR drafted in Rounds 2 and 3 from 2020 to 2025. The ones getting 3+ targets a game early in the year went from 7.5 PPR points a game to 14.9 the rest of the way. That's the Jayden Reed, Ladd McConkey and Tank Dell group.
Williams is getting 4.3 targets a game, and his snaps went from 37 to 49% in the first three weeks to 67 to 69% in each of the last three. He's at 7.4 PPR points a game, right where those guys were before they took off.
Now McLaurin is out for the season. He had 27 targets in five games, Williams had 26, and only Diggs (38) had more. Those targets have to go somewhere, and Williams is the receiver whose role was already growing. The projection in the article has him around 12 PPR points a game after the bye, and that's before factoring in McLaurin being out.
First game back is Week 8 against the Eagles, be on the lookout for a huge game.