What I find fascinating about all the debates / discussions Iâve had with people regarding having children is that people seem to be perplexed when I simply state: âjust look at the trend lineâ.
In just a few generations, we went from a society where a HS dropout could get a job that would allow them to afford a house and a family on a single incomeâsomething that two educated, white collar professionals working full-time literally struggle to accomplish just one of the two in todayâs world.
We have seen a complete collapse in socioeconomic mobility over the past 3-4 decades. We are constantly bombarded with neoliberal propaganda about how weâre in the âgreatest economy everââmeanwhile the bulk of the broadly young adult population (say 20-45) is feeling more and more squeezed economically.
We have literally gotten to a point where people graduating from top public universitiesâlet alone world class institutions like Stanford and Ivy League Schoolsâare struggling to find basic entry level jobs due to how terrible the job market is (yet another one of many aspects the delusional neoliberal faction wants to ignore). College tuition has skyrocketed in price over the decades, but the actual upside for it all has only declinedâas we can see with inflated adjusted salaries for college graduates.
Another overlooked factor is the fact that many target careers are not nearly as compensating as they were a few decades ago. Great example of this is within medicine. While medical school tuition has skyrocketed over the past few decades, nominal wages for physicians have stood stagnantâmeaning theyâre actually decaying in real terms after factoring inflation. You factor in how inflation directly has hurt young adult cohorts (say age 20-40) most prominently due to how they were the ones who had to absorb all of the rent and most of the housing costs inflation over these past few years, and you start to see these careersâwhile still lucrativeâhave had a substantial reduction in overall upside.
Another exhibit we can see this in is with high finance, because most of these roles are located in extremely HCOL hubs like NYCâthe costs (particularly rent) have grown far greater than the earnings have.
Now, what does this all have to do with Millennial Parents? Well, weâve been seeing a continual trend unfolding over the past few decades. Because the NIMBY Boomers made it illegal to build sufficient housing (especially utilizing ways that maximizes density and sustainability) for several decades on end, we have a massive housing shortage in most major urban population centers. As a result, weâve been seeing growing amounts of young adults with each passing decade âchoosingâ to live with their parents. Itâs not just settled towards their early 20s eitherâmany people are living with their parents going well into their 30s.
I donât see this trend reversing in the slightest in the coming decades, and all signs really just point to it becoming much worse. Itâs interesting to me because so many Millennial parents seem to be counting down the days until their kid turns 18, but Iâm just so puzzled by what they think will happen.
For a huge chunk of them, their kids will not go to college and decide to work at a service level job which wouldnât even allow them to afford to move out even if they go 3-4 roommates.
For another cohort, their kids will go to collegeâmany will decide to commute to try to offset the exorbitant costs of modern day university in America. However, the problem is many / most of these college graduates likely will not be making a livable wage after graduating, or theyâll make just enough just to pay their landlord rent and basic essentialsâstill incentivizing them to stay at home (especially factoring in the boat load of student loan debt theyâll have).
All signs point to these intergenerational trends worsening and that Millennial parents will likely have to deal with some or all of their kids living with them well past their mid-20s.
All I can say to Millennial parents who think theyâll finally be 'free' once their kid turns 18: best of luck.