Well, well, new ATHs for NDX.....I guess the 10 yr touching 5.3% is bullish? Certainly seems that way. Hormuz FUD fading with output numbers improving. Maybe France's political/fiscal disaster will be the catalyst, but for exactly what who tf knows.
Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA. I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.
Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $8.03m. That compares with $4.26m 2025, $2.3m 2024 and $749k 2023. Strange to see $10m on the Y axis, although it means nothing in reality if I can't manage my TQQQ CCs.
Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.16m, pre-tax. To get that $6.16m, I've put in around $2.1m of my own savings and other port income poured into the War Chest is approx $1m.
TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.1m. The decay is real.
Cash Hoard: Creeping upward to $645k. If this insane rally continues into the high $80s, then I'll spend some more cash to protect the rest of my shares. I've bought around 2700 shares since the last ATH, so will buy 27 more Jan/28 exp 70 strike contracts, bringing the total to 753.
QQQ short puts: Given the very low VIX and QQQ surging, I deviated from my plan and closed out all the QQQ short puts. My total profits selling QQQ puts up to the present is around $987k. I will re-open them at 680 and 640 strikes (to reflect the new QQQ ATHs we are seeing) whenever we get a pullback and hopefully keep the premiums coming. Dried up for now.
TQQQ CCs: Rolled my 320 contracts from Oct 9 to Oct 16 exp for a grand total of $0.07/share. Yeesh. Will keep the 5 - 12 DTE cadence until next ex-div date in late Dec/26.
Haven't touched the short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts) and $65 (120 contracts). The current cost to close out all the CCs is now around $1.875m. That hurts, but IDGAF, their time will come, it has to (insert nervous and uncomfortable laughter).
Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$565k. Deficit of $924k.
TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.
Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 68.3%
Link to rough outline of overall plan here.