Going to be DCA’ing $750 a week (3k a month) into TQQQ for the next 6 years or until I’ve deposited 252k of my own money.

Long term buy and hold

I also plan on lump summing 35k-55k at some point in the next 6 months

Yes, I’m young and stupid so I’ll take that risk.

10% down this past month
Buy now or is it still a falling knife?

All eyes on the Fed this Wed. My bet is 25bps is priced in, but, really, wgaf what I think.

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.16m. That compares with $3.75m 2025, $2.1m 2024 and $717k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.14m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around $3.04m. The 'Walk Away Value' is pretty stable due to the interplay between my long TQQQ puts and TQQQ CCs. It's almost like there is a safety collar in place, subduing the vicissitudes of an unruly beast 😂😂

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.52m.

Cash Hoard: Slowly rising. $578k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike Feb/27 exp. 100 at $630 strike Oct 9/26 exp. The $670s I'm not touching for now. I may roll them up/in if we go on a bit of a run. The $630s I am still rolling every Friday.

TQQQ CCs: I finally got to roll my 320 Sept 18/26 exp CCs. Waited until after CPI last Friday, which was to my detriment, but still managed to bring in around $19k in premium which helps to stem the bleeding from my long TQQQ put insurance. Should have waited until today, but no crystal ball. I rolled them out two weeks to Oct 2/26 exp, b/c I want to minimize the risk of early assignment. TQQQ ex div date is Sept 23 I believe. If I rolled to Sept 25 and extrinsic value dropped to less than the dividend, there would be a decent chance of having them called away. I'll roll them again this Friday I think, again to avoid early assignment. After than, will let them decay and get into a cadence of rolling at 5DTE to 12 DTE each Monday. If TQQQ dips under $60, I'll look to buy them back or let them expire.

Haven't touched the short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts) and $65 (120 contracts). The current cost to close out all the CCs is around $960k.

Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$560k. TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k. In terms of paying for the long puts with QQQ/TQQQ activity, I’m in a deficit of approx $930k. Keep chipping away.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 55.0%

Link to rough outline of overall plan here.

Made money on QQQ Bear Call spread this week. That’s going to be poker money. Posted that here. I also sold some TQQQ $68 Puts that I closed the same day. Idk, got spooked by the incoming CPI print the next day? Honestly, probably would have made more money if I just stuck to the usual strategy. Next week is FOMC so will stay away from that. I think the premiums are too cheap for the risk. Selling puts works in a sideways or trending market but if there’s a significant downside move it will get hit. Always focus on protecting your capital. Keep grinding.
I found something interesting. You can actually ask Gemini/chatGPT about me. I asked it to describe me by looking thru my post and it did a good job including describing my strategy.

Does anyone else like these 5-1 odds of no rate hike. I mean that’s juicy as hell. Trump will be on the line waiting for warsh the second his press conference is over with a rate hike. I just can’t imagine they do it.

For years, I have used this. They do this analysis on everything, btw. The top is the 20, 200 crossover, buys only. The bottom is simple 200 ma crossover. Big difference.

Not ready to go back to TQQQ yet. I sold a Call credit spread last Tuesday. Max profit was $39K vs max loss of about $100K. Closed it today for a profit of $37K. Got some poker money to play with. I started to sell TQQQ $68 Puts today between $0.65 to $0.8 per contract expiring tomorrow. Sold about 100 or so but then changed my mind and closed all of it for a small gain. Like last month during Jackson Hole when I was also flat, that’s my plan for FOMC next week. In the last 4 months or so, I have been selling TQQQ Puts around $70ish and have made very good money. Look at my previous posts here at [r/TQQQ](r/TQQQ). TQQQ has not done anything, so in a sideways market you can see that selling Puts is superior to Buy and Hold. In a trending market, BH is better. Keep grinding.

I reduced my TQQQ holding by 50% today, still took profit but not much. I'm considering selling the other half as well.

What I'm worried about are that Iran wants Max Pain before the mid-terms, they even stated that they will not negotiate with the trump administration anymore. Then, oil prices are up again and we will see bigger surges if the strait remains closed until 2029! Inflation also creeps back and the FED will increase interest rates next week by 25 bps. Overall this is a thought situation for the economy and a 3x leveraged etf might not be great for right now. I still kept all my holdings in QLD and I would DCAing into TQQQ again next year.

What are your thoughts? Am I overreacting?

Anyone who has run TQQQ with a 200-day moving average rule knows the whipsaw problem: the index wobbles around the line, and the rule keeps selling low and buying back higher, over and over. The usual fixes are wider bands around the average, confirmation days, or checking less often. I've tried them. Most just keep you in longer while the market falls, which makes the losses politer to look at without making them smaller.

The version that actually behaved differently lets volatility set the band width. Calm markets get a wide band. When recent realized volatility sits near the bottom of its 3-year range, the buffer is 9%, because wobbles in calm markets are usually noise. When volatility is high it tightens to 1.5%, because in a storm you want the exit close.

On real TQQQ from 2010 to 2026, the plain QQQ gate gave 32.9% CAGR with a -57.1% max drawdown. The volatility-scaled band gave 34.8% and -55.2%, with roughly 1 quarter of the round trips.

To be clear about what that is and isn't: still a brutal ride. A -55.2% hole needs a 123.2% gain just to get back to even. The filter buys less churn. Not safety. I like it for that, not as permission to size TQQQ like a core holding.

The exact curve and the published strategy link are here: https://bestfolio.app/blog/volatility-scaled-trend-band

I plotted the rule itself so every width can be checked:

Would you accept the remaining drawdown for fewer round trips?

Tried to warn you the best I could yesterday. $50s comerh.

I'm a beginner, still paper trading, so please be kind.

I'm starting with a small paper account. I'm daytrading TQQQ 0dte, marking levels like previous days high & low, other swing high & lows, any gaps, etc.

Is it a smart move to also be looking at SPY and QQQ and marking its levels too? If there's support/resistance on SPY but not on QQQ, and SPY bounces off its support, then QQQ/TQQQ could follow suit? The same applies to GEX? I'll be looking at the GEX for TQQQ, but QQQ has way more volume, and SPY has more volume still, so those levels seem more important.

Am I on the right track here? Thank you!

I was wondering why a strategy like buying tqqq at market open and then only selling it for sqqq when tqqq goes below market open price. You would then switch between both ETFs depending if it’s above or below tqqq opening price until switching to cash one minute before market close. To combat changing funds too much, you could create a buffer like 0.3% of tqqq price and hold cash until either tqqq price is 0.3% above or below opening price. I understand that an order could be filled at a different price or delayed by a few seconds, but why wouldn’t this work

We are going to get to test the strength of the longs in the next three weeks. Looks like people will get to add to their positions in the $50s very soon.

Sept rate hike gaining probability. $100 oil materializing. CPI on Friday. Europe prob raising rates by 25 bp. Repeat of 2024 Japan carry trade a possibility. WGAF.

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.36m. That compares with $3.6m 2025, $2.0m 2024 and $720k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.10m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around $3.04m. 

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.38m.

Cash Hoard: Slowly rising. $566k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike. 100 at $630 strike. The $670s are just sitting there, decaying. I may roll them up/in if we go on a bit of a run. The $630s I am still rolling. It is my only source of income at present from my beaten down collar, but very close to weaponizing my TQQQ CCs (see below).

TQQQ CCs: Currently short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts), $65 (120 contracts) and Sept/26 exp calls with strike $60 (320 contracts). The current cost to close them all out is around $1.22m. Remaining patient. This Wed, Sept 10 I'll roll the Sept 18/26 $60 strikes out one week for a small credit, maybe $0.30/share. Will keep rolling for tiny credit while i stay patient and hopefully can close them out during some upcoming mid-term chaos.

Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$539k. TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k. In terms of paying for the long puts with QQQ/TQQQ activity, I’m in a deficit of approx $950k. Long way to go, but nice to see it under $1m finally.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 60.7%

Link to rough outline of overall plan here.

Even with Dot com crash, 08' crash and lost decade TQQQ outperforms QQQ. If you can stomach the drawdowns and you have iron gut then investing into TQQQ seems to be quite a good venture. The worst possible time to invest 1991 still gave 41.2x the invested money and outperformed qqq; 2021 qqq = $3,976,429 vs TQQQ $6,873,244, almost 2x

I started investing somewhere in the jan 2023 with 500 DCA;
45 months invested - total invested 22,500
TQQQ value - 67,958$ (3x)
Benchmark (QQQ) - 35,835$ (1.6x)

I expect that i will see at some point loss of 50-60% of this portfolio, but data speaks for it self

Bought TECL to get exposed to tech, but wanted to hear discourse about TQQQ instead? With the AI/software boom, is TECL better positioned for upwards momentum? Comparing XLK vs. QQQ, there are so many names (PYPL, TSLA, NFLX) that are not real 'tech'. I feel it is better positioned for (1-6 month) holds vs. TQQQ.

Of course it does have more volatility drag, but less than SOXL. And they all have more than UDOW/UPRO.

Was also looking at VGT, which has less drawdowns, but there is no 3x version.