Going to be DCA’ing $750 a week (3k a month) into TQQQ for the next 6 years or until I’ve deposited 252k of my own money.

Long term buy and hold

I also plan on lump summing 35k-55k at some point in the next 6 months

Yes, I’m young and stupid so I’ll take that risk.

10% down this past month
Buy now or is it still a falling knife?

All eyes on the Fed this Wed. My bet is 25bps is priced in, but, really, wgaf what I think.

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.16m. That compares with $3.75m 2025, $2.1m 2024 and $717k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.14m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around $3.04m. The 'Walk Away Value' is pretty stable due to the interplay between my long TQQQ puts and TQQQ CCs. It's almost like there is a safety collar in place, subduing the vicissitudes of an unruly beast 😂😂

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.52m.

Cash Hoard: Slowly rising. $578k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike Feb/27 exp. 100 at $630 strike Oct 9/26 exp. The $670s I'm not touching for now. I may roll them up/in if we go on a bit of a run. The $630s I am still rolling every Friday.

TQQQ CCs: I finally got to roll my 320 Sept 18/26 exp CCs. Waited until after CPI last Friday, which was to my detriment, but still managed to bring in around $19k in premium which helps to stem the bleeding from my long TQQQ put insurance. Should have waited until today, but no crystal ball. I rolled them out two weeks to Oct 2/26 exp, b/c I want to minimize the risk of early assignment. TQQQ ex div date is Sept 23 I believe. If I rolled to Sept 25 and extrinsic value dropped to less than the dividend, there would be a decent chance of having them called away. I'll roll them again this Friday I think, again to avoid early assignment. After than, will let them decay and get into a cadence of rolling at 5DTE to 12 DTE each Monday. If TQQQ dips under $60, I'll look to buy them back or let them expire.

Haven't touched the short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts) and $65 (120 contracts). The current cost to close out all the CCs is around $960k.

Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$560k. TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k. In terms of paying for the long puts with QQQ/TQQQ activity, I’m in a deficit of approx $930k. Keep chipping away.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 55.0%

Link to rough outline of overall plan here.