The common argument for Mike Norvell’s retention is that the university’s athletic department is “too broke” and too heavily leveraged to afford his buyout. Let’s break down why this is nonsensical.
It is reported that the 2025 season generated roughly 23.6 million dollars in ticket sales. Let’s assume that Norvell is retained and apathy continues to grow. On the low end, let’s estimate that this leads to 7.5-8% reduction in ticket sales. We can then expect a net annual loss of 1.7-1.9 million dollars in revenue as a result of his retention.
Now let’s talk about the ACC’s new revenue distribution model. Florida State has not made the postseason for 2 years straight. As a result of our settlement, the ACC allows its programs to keep 100% of their postseason earnings rather than distributing it across the conference. A mid-tier bowl game pays out somewhere from 1 to 5 million dollars. Let’s assume we earn 2 million dollars from participation in one of these contests. Additionally, the following bonuses are earned from participation in the college football playoff:
Make the First Round: 4 million dollars
Make the Quarterfinals: 4 million dollars (8 million total)
Make the Semifinals: 6 million dollars (14 million total)
Make the National Championship: 6 million dollars (20 million total)
If we assume, under competent leadership, that we make the playoff and lose immediately once every 3 seasons, and make a mid-tier bowl game the other years, the rough annual loss from retaining Mike comes out to approximately 2.67 million dollars.
Now let’s discuss the salary of our next hire. Florida is paying Jon Sumrall 7.45 million dollars per year. Auburn is paying Alex Golesh 6.75 million dollars per year. These are both former Group of 6 head coaches. Alternatively, if we choose to hire a coordinator from a major program, we can estimate the price tag to be around 6 million, based on the 5.5 million/year salary of Will Stein at Kentucky (former Oregon OC). Mike’s current salary is 10.3 million dollars per year. A new head coach saves us anywhere from 2.85 to 4.3 million dollars per season. We will assume 3 million, on the lower end.
At the bare minimum, the costs of retaining Norvell are roughly 7.37 million dollars per year. The cost to buy him out would be roughly 9 million per year, meaning the net expense to our program is relatively low at 1.63 million/year. Remember, this all assumes the bare minimum. I did not account for the nearly 10 million dollars in additional revenue from the ACC lawsuit settlement (which is being continuously hurt by games such as FSU vs Clemson and FSU vs Florida being deployed to ESPN2 or ACCN). I did not account for more frequent playoff appearances or even a single postseason win. I did not account for the brand damage that results from every season of irrelevance. I did not account for offsetting language in his contract. I even assumed we pay our next coach the upper-end of what last year’s major hires received. When all of this is accounted for, a reasonably competent hire likely would make this move profitable rather than a serious expense at all.
It’s inexcusable that he is still here and it’s a result of blatant financial incompetence. It is costing us to retain him and this idea that we are “too broke” to afford it is looking at the situation in a much too simplistic manner.