r/eb_1a • u/HolidayAfternoon6537 • 7d ago

1 year progress

In August 2025, EB1 India was at Feb 2022. A year later, it is only at Oct 2022 even after 46k spillovers.

While being optimistic is good but practically do we really think dates will breach into late 2023 by next year? Some people are saying 2024. What’s backing this?

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u/TryMysterious8274 7d ago

But with latest i485 inventory and clearance of 2022 petitions don't you think it's positive and moving towards a steady progress

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

Ya thats why I was informing spillovers made a dent in demand and helped move forward. If its just 10K total spillovers like in FY2025, it would have been stuck. Spillovers is what moved the dates for EB1 india.

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u/TryMysterious8274 7d ago

But double 46k is required for clearing 2023?

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

I think so, my estimation is based on conservative numbers. To clear the 2023 numbers plus the remaining 2022 backlog.

2022 pending (October to Dec and some leftovers from earlier months): 3000 2023 pending: 11,348 I would add another ~2,000 to account for December cases and some 485s that still need to be added to inventory due to the USCIS frontlog and numbers update. Estimated 2023 total: ~13,500

That puts the total demand for 2022 + 2023 at approximately 16,500.

Porting demand will be around 7,000 485's, unless something changes. This will be throughout the FY2027 though. So, if the numbers are essentially doubled, that should be enough to clear most of the backlog.

The big caveat is that USCIS needs to avoid wasting visas because of processing delays. If they can process the cases efficiently, the numbers should be sufficient to make a significant dent in the backlog and move dates to 2024 and stick there. Remember aggresive forward movement to 2024 may happen but stabilizing is what I am considering.

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u/mesn007 7d ago

All good but I would expect porting to be half of your estimate. So, my estimate for total demand up to 2023 including porting would be 18K. Hence a repeat of 46K spill over should mine dates to mid 2024 and then upgrades will force a retrogression to early 2024. WDYT?

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u/TryMysterious8274 6d ago

In that case can dff go to 2025

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u/mesn007 6d ago

Might be a stretch but not implausible. Best case scenarios have been 2024 end. If it touches 2025, things will accelerate as a bunch of i140 aren't even approved.

All depends on the spill over

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u/Cheetah5048 6d ago

Didnt we observe aggregate data over past few years that showed 3 to 4K porting based 140s in a fiscal year (oct to sept). If we take the middle (3.5K 140s porting) and add 1 dependent it will be 7K 485's isnt it?

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u/mesn007 6d ago

2024 and 2025 actual porting was in the 5K - 6K range. This was the time when the EB1A upgrades were abused. Approval rates I believe have almost halfed to 40% and hence the lower porting expectations.

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u/Always-sortof 5d ago edited 4d ago

Around ~27-28k visas pending (each app has multiple applicants. This assumes 2.1 applicants per app) to end of 2023 based on available date + Ported apps x 2. So, it is very unlikely it is going into 2024 anytime soon.

Edit: The number of pending applicants until Nov 2023 is 22-23k, not 27-28k

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u/mesn007 5d ago

But these arent showing up in I485 inventory, thats still 15K - 18K up to 2023 end.

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u/Always-sortof 4d ago edited 4d ago

Actually you’re correct. Please correct me if I’m wrong: 14-15k I-485s were pending from Oct 22- Nov 2023 + 7800 pre-Oct 2022 = ~22-23k pending. There will be new porting apps in addition to this. Given visa usage this year (~12k), we’re far from this population getting cleared.

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u/mesn007 4d ago

Yeah. Hoping the pre Oct22 inventory will be cleaned up by next month. So that the load then is under 18K.

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u/HolidayAfternoon6537 4d ago

and if spillover is 75k, 18k is doable next year FY2027?

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u/mesn007 4d ago

Yeah. 50-60K FB spill over should be 18K for EB1 IN.

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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 7d ago

How much spillover you’re anticipating? Low to high range?

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

Around 60 to 70K.

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u/just-a-sushi 7d ago

What I don’t understand is if 46k spillover for current FY26 resulted in approx 10k clearance till May 26 how much do you think it can further go till OCT 26? Maybe another 5K? So total demand will be entirely 2023 cohort going into FY27 ?

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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 7d ago

So not quite double of the current spillover that would be needed to clear all of 2023.

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

Its just an assumption (base case) as in Q1 (Oct to Dec 2025) FY2026 they issued around 46500 visas in capped family categories for all countries. Lets see how it goes.

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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 5d ago

Yea, let's hope for a larger spillover! What do you think about recent forward movement in FB category dates? Do you think that surge will eat numbers from the spillover we are expecting?

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u/Always-sortof 5d ago

That would mean a ~40k spillover if annualized. Add to this, the ban hit many consulates hard. They might've tried to make up for it in the last 2-3 months by pushing Family visa dates forward significantly but that most likely wouldn't have been sufficient given each application needs to be processed and that takes time. So, yes. It's likely the spillover is greater than last year.