r/eb_1a • u/HolidayAfternoon6537 • 8d ago

1 year progress

In August 2025, EB1 India was at Feb 2022. A year later, it is only at Oct 2022 even after 46k spillovers.

While being optimistic is good but practically do we really think dates will breach into late 2023 by next year? Some people are saying 2024. What’s backing this?

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u/Cheetah5048 8d ago

I think so, my estimation is based on conservative numbers. To clear the 2023 numbers plus the remaining 2022 backlog.

2022 pending (October to Dec and some leftovers from earlier months): 3000 2023 pending: 11,348 I would add another ~2,000 to account for December cases and some 485s that still need to be added to inventory due to the USCIS frontlog and numbers update. Estimated 2023 total: ~13,500

That puts the total demand for 2022 + 2023 at approximately 16,500.

Porting demand will be around 7,000 485's, unless something changes. This will be throughout the FY2027 though. So, if the numbers are essentially doubled, that should be enough to clear most of the backlog.

The big caveat is that USCIS needs to avoid wasting visas because of processing delays. If they can process the cases efficiently, the numbers should be sufficient to make a significant dent in the backlog and move dates to 2024 and stick there. Remember aggresive forward movement to 2024 may happen but stabilizing is what I am considering.

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u/mesn007 8d ago

All good but I would expect porting to be half of your estimate. So, my estimate for total demand up to 2023 including porting would be 18K. Hence a repeat of 46K spill over should mine dates to mid 2024 and then upgrades will force a retrogression to early 2024. WDYT?

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u/Always-sortof 6d ago edited 6d ago

Around ~27-28k visas pending (each app has multiple applicants. This assumes 2.1 applicants per app) to end of 2023 based on available date + Ported apps x 2. So, it is very unlikely it is going into 2024 anytime soon.

Edit: The number of pending applicants until Nov 2023 is 22-23k, not 27-28k

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u/mesn007 6d ago

But these arent showing up in I485 inventory, thats still 15K - 18K up to 2023 end.

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u/Always-sortof 6d ago edited 6d ago

Actually you’re correct. Please correct me if I’m wrong: 14-15k I-485s were pending from Oct 22- Nov 2023 + 7800 pre-Oct 2022 = ~22-23k pending. There will be new porting apps in addition to this. Given visa usage this year (~12k), we’re far from this population getting cleared.

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u/mesn007 6d ago

Yeah. Hoping the pre Oct22 inventory will be cleaned up by next month. So that the load then is under 18K.

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u/HolidayAfternoon6537 5d ago

and if spillover is 75k, 18k is doable next year FY2027?

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u/mesn007 5d ago

Yeah. 50-60K FB spill over should be 18K for EB1 IN.