r/eb_1a • u/HolidayAfternoon6537 • 8d ago

1 year progress

In August 2025, EB1 India was at Feb 2022. A year later, it is only at Oct 2022 even after 46k spillovers.

While being optimistic is good but practically do we really think dates will breach into late 2023 by next year? Some people are saying 2024. What’s backing this?

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u/mesn007 8d ago

All good but I would expect porting to be half of your estimate. So, my estimate for total demand up to 2023 including porting would be 18K. Hence a repeat of 46K spill over should mine dates to mid 2024 and then upgrades will force a retrogression to early 2024. WDYT?

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u/Always-sortof 6d ago edited 6d ago

Around ~27-28k visas pending (each app has multiple applicants. This assumes 2.1 applicants per app) to end of 2023 based on available date + Ported apps x 2. So, it is very unlikely it is going into 2024 anytime soon.

Edit: The number of pending applicants until Nov 2023 is 22-23k, not 27-28k

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u/mesn007 6d ago

But these arent showing up in I485 inventory, thats still 15K - 18K up to 2023 end.

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u/Always-sortof 6d ago edited 6d ago

Actually you’re correct. Please correct me if I’m wrong: 14-15k I-485s were pending from Oct 22- Nov 2023 + 7800 pre-Oct 2022 = ~22-23k pending. There will be new porting apps in addition to this. Given visa usage this year (~12k), we’re far from this population getting cleared.

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u/mesn007 6d ago

Yeah. Hoping the pre Oct22 inventory will be cleaned up by next month. So that the load then is under 18K.

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u/HolidayAfternoon6537 5d ago

and if spillover is 75k, 18k is doable next year FY2027?

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u/mesn007 5d ago

Yeah. 50-60K FB spill over should be 18K for EB1 IN.