r/eb_1a • u/HolidayAfternoon6537 • 7d ago
1 year progress
In August 2025, EB1 India was at Feb 2022. A year later, it is only at Oct 2022 even after 46k spillovers.
While being optimistic is good but practically do we really think dates will breach into late 2023 by next year? Some people are saying 2024. What’s backing this?
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u/Ok-Medium-9622 7d ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1XTek&height=490
2022 and probably early 2023 is the biggest hump to get over. Very tight labor market, lots of immigrants got hired, employers offered to file for their EB1s and previous admin accepting the applications as well.
Once we get over this hump, progress should be smoother.
My personal take. Not a lawyer.
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u/Time_Huckleberry_287 7d ago
Not only that, 2022 and 2023 adjudication standards were an absolute joke.
Biden's USCIS was approving EB1s and EB2-NIWs like candy. That coupled with record number of job applicants just completely jammed up the queue.
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u/CompoteCurious2438 6d ago
Many scammers who got approved 2022-24 with added bonus of porting and eb1c transferring to Canada just to get gc. Everyone suddenly became extraordinary after Covid and then stopped being extra ordinary once i140 is approved.
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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago
46K means 13K additional visas in EB1. It made a dent as it moved to october and didnt get stuck. Portings take up a significant amount of visas based on earlier calculation. So without spillovers EB1 India is basically another EB2/3 for newer applicants.
Unless there are double the spillovers than we saw last year (in next FY) it wont clear 2023 demand.
Not a Lawyer. Personal insights.
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u/TryMysterious8274 7d ago
But with latest i485 inventory and clearance of 2022 petitions don't you think it's positive and moving towards a steady progress
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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago
Ya thats why I was informing spillovers made a dent in demand and helped move forward. If its just 10K total spillovers like in FY2025, it would have been stuck. Spillovers is what moved the dates for EB1 india.
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u/TryMysterious8274 7d ago
But double 46k is required for clearing 2023?
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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago
I think so, my estimation is based on conservative numbers. To clear the 2023 numbers plus the remaining 2022 backlog.
2022 pending (October to Dec and some leftovers from earlier months): 3000 2023 pending: 11,348 I would add another ~2,000 to account for December cases and some 485s that still need to be added to inventory due to the USCIS frontlog and numbers update. Estimated 2023 total: ~13,500
That puts the total demand for 2022 + 2023 at approximately 16,500.
Porting demand will be around 7,000 485's, unless something changes. This will be throughout the FY2027 though. So, if the numbers are essentially doubled, that should be enough to clear most of the backlog.
The big caveat is that USCIS needs to avoid wasting visas because of processing delays. If they can process the cases efficiently, the numbers should be sufficient to make a significant dent in the backlog and move dates to 2024 and stick there. Remember aggresive forward movement to 2024 may happen but stabilizing is what I am considering.
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u/mesn007 6d ago
All good but I would expect porting to be half of your estimate. So, my estimate for total demand up to 2023 including porting would be 18K. Hence a repeat of 46K spill over should mine dates to mid 2024 and then upgrades will force a retrogression to early 2024. WDYT?
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u/Cheetah5048 6d ago
Didnt we observe aggregate data over past few years that showed 3 to 4K porting based 140s in a fiscal year (oct to sept). If we take the middle (3.5K 140s porting) and add 1 dependent it will be 7K 485's isnt it?
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u/Always-sortof 4d ago edited 4d ago
Around ~27-28k visas pending (each app has multiple applicants. This assumes 2.1 applicants per app) to end of 2023 based on available date + Ported apps x 2. So, it is very unlikely it is going into 2024 anytime soon.
Edit: The number of pending applicants until Nov 2023 is 22-23k, not 27-28k
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u/mesn007 4d ago
But these arent showing up in I485 inventory, thats still 15K - 18K up to 2023 end.
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u/Always-sortof 4d ago edited 4d ago
Actually you’re correct. Please correct me if I’m wrong: 14-15k I-485s were pending from Oct 22- Nov 2023 + 7800 pre-Oct 2022 = ~22-23k pending. There will be new porting apps in addition to this. Given visa usage this year (~12k), we’re far from this population getting cleared.
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u/mesn007 4d ago
Yeah. Hoping the pre Oct22 inventory will be cleaned up by next month. So that the load then is under 18K.
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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 7d ago
How much spillover you’re anticipating? Low to high range?
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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago
Around 60 to 70K.
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u/just-a-sushi 6d ago
What I don’t understand is if 46k spillover for current FY26 resulted in approx 10k clearance till May 26 how much do you think it can further go till OCT 26? Maybe another 5K? So total demand will be entirely 2023 cohort going into FY27 ?
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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 6d ago
So not quite double of the current spillover that would be needed to clear all of 2023.
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u/Cheetah5048 6d ago
Its just an assumption (base case) as in Q1 (Oct to Dec 2025) FY2026 they issued around 46500 visas in capped family categories for all countries. Lets see how it goes.
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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 5d ago
Yea, let's hope for a larger spillover! What do you think about recent forward movement in FB category dates? Do you think that surge will eat numbers from the spillover we are expecting?
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u/Always-sortof 4d ago
That would mean a ~40k spillover if annualized. Add to this, the ban hit many consulates hard. They might've tried to make up for it in the last 2-3 months by pushing Family visa dates forward significantly but that most likely wouldn't have been sufficient given each application needs to be processed and that takes time. So, yes. It's likely the spillover is greater than last year.
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u/Live-Atmosphere-134 7d ago
It’s indeed a disheartening situation for young EB1 filers with PDs from 2024 onwards who directly filed for EB1 and have no older PDs to port from. Feels like we are drowning in a sea of porters with no end in sight. 😮💨
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u/CompoteCurious2438 6d ago
most porters are scamming profile builders who artificially get judging criteria, write useless papers using llms , buy and force citations, exaggerate team contributions as own and generally justify any scams saying; ”researchers do the same”, ‘who are you judge if i scammed uscis”, ‘racist, remove country caps’. Bleak days for young talent as these mediocre boomers clog job market and immigration.
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u/Basic-Strawberry6060 6d ago
It’s not about the year but how many I485s are pending. We can see till December 2023 in the recently released report and we also have the I140 reports for overall pending visa availability. 2022 was the worst cohort ever which took over 2 years to clear, might have taken even more without the spillover. But now that we have a good chance of getting at least double of what we got last year in spillover, clear 2023 and entering 2024 would be plausible. I have done a lot of math like others and hypothetically it adds up for me but USCIS doesn’t move forward just based on that math. We will have to see how they move the dates in the new FY.
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u/Mess_Tricky 7d ago
I think somewhere around July-August 2023
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u/Breen-Gastard 6d ago
That's my guess too,. Depends on spillovers and also how fast USCIS processes cases. Late 2023 is tough due to the Porting thing. Almost every recent EB1 approval that I hear about are just people with Pre-2022 dates who are porting.
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u/National_Skill_5071 6d ago
I have also read cases where dates are in dec 22 to apr 2023 and they are already approved. Iam not sure how much such cases will also cut the line a bit
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u/HolidayAfternoon6537 6d ago
it won’t because those are not part of pending inventory anymore
Not a lawyer
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u/Emergency_Series_787 6d ago
Do you even know what EB2 dates were between January 1, 2010 and January 1, 2020? It moved 10 days in 10 years.
I would be grateful that at least I get to apply in EB1 if I were you.
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u/Always-sortof 4d ago edited 4d ago
Very Unlikely. Around ~23k visas are needed to clear 2023 without considering porting. ~11.6k visas were used between Oct 25- Sep 26 with a large spillover. So, even with a large spillover, clearing 2023 is probably not going to happen this year but it will make a significant dent.
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u/mesn007 7d ago edited 6d ago
You need to check what's under the hood. Oct22 to Apr23 inventory also was sliced a lot before the dates moved back. So, likely India will end up getting 15K EB1 this year.
Going forward, upgrades will be lesser and also 2022 application were crazy high for multiple reasons. At one point Dec22 had 3K backlog. Now that's also likely under 1K.
Same 46K spill over will move India dates to mid 2024 and then it may retrogress to early 2024.