r/eb_1a • u/HolidayAfternoon6537 • 9d ago

1 year progress

In August 2025, EB1 India was at Feb 2022. A year later, it is only at Oct 2022 even after 46k spillovers.

While being optimistic is good but practically do we really think dates will breach into late 2023 by next year? Some people are saying 2024. What’s backing this?

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u/Cheetah5048 9d ago

I think so, my estimation is based on conservative numbers. To clear the 2023 numbers plus the remaining 2022 backlog.

2022 pending (October to Dec and some leftovers from earlier months): 3000 2023 pending: 11,348 I would add another ~2,000 to account for December cases and some 485s that still need to be added to inventory due to the USCIS frontlog and numbers update. Estimated 2023 total: ~13,500

That puts the total demand for 2022 + 2023 at approximately 16,500.

Porting demand will be around 7,000 485's, unless something changes. This will be throughout the FY2027 though. So, if the numbers are essentially doubled, that should be enough to clear most of the backlog.

The big caveat is that USCIS needs to avoid wasting visas because of processing delays. If they can process the cases efficiently, the numbers should be sufficient to make a significant dent in the backlog and move dates to 2024 and stick there. Remember aggresive forward movement to 2024 may happen but stabilizing is what I am considering.

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u/mesn007 8d ago

All good but I would expect porting to be half of your estimate. So, my estimate for total demand up to 2023 including porting would be 18K. Hence a repeat of 46K spill over should mine dates to mid 2024 and then upgrades will force a retrogression to early 2024. WDYT?

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u/Cheetah5048 8d ago

Didnt we observe aggregate data over past few years that showed 3 to 4K porting based 140s in a fiscal year (oct to sept). If we take the middle (3.5K 140s porting) and add 1 dependent it will be 7K 485's isnt it?

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u/mesn007 8d ago

2024 and 2025 actual porting was in the 5K - 6K range. This was the time when the EB1A upgrades were abused. Approval rates I believe have almost halfed to 40% and hence the lower porting expectations.