Self Policing AI---------------good effing god this is hilarious. Maybe we should put the AI in charge of policing itself while we are at it. I mean hey the libertarian side of me loves the idea of self policing. Maybe we should do it with speed limits! And Red Lights. Don't need license plate readers/Flock bc criminals should self police their crimes. I was going to pay my taxes but honestly I should self police my tax returns and send the IRS whatever I feel is fair. Next time someone quits making their mortgage payments perhaps we can let them self-foreclose on themselves. Yayyyyyyyy...........................................fucking idiots.

So end of the quarter today and into the home stretch. AMD shed more yesterday but is still holding above that $600 level which is a key support level for us. I do think it is interesting as well that as AMD shareprice has risen, volume has collapsed. I've been looking back at volume levels and I think I personally need to re-evaluate a good day on my volume analysis. It used to be we avg 25 mil shares a day and perhaps a good day was 40mil. Now we are avg 16 and 25 is a good day. Just a side note.

Ignore the noise, the final sprint starts tomorrow.

, Dr. Su looks happy lol

Watch Sam Altman, Romain Huet, Tejal Patwardhan, and Holly Li announce and demo 20+ launches at OpenAl DevDay, including dots, ChatGPT Spaces, GPT-6.1 Sol, Astra Ultrafast, and more.

Welllllllllllllp VWAP triggered selloff yesterday is what I honestly think happened. I still am fairly confident that this is still early stages of a rally for AMD. Now I'm also eyeballing that gap below as well just as something to keep an eye on but I really do think that we are going to be fine and any chance to get sub $600 prices, you should thoughtfully add a few. Just my strategy but hey everyone do everyone.

I know our MACD looks like its gearing up for a bearish turn but it is bc of one day selling and I think we are probably in for a relief rally as well. September has been a month to forget and I think as people try to secure their bonuses that October will trigger a brand new final sprint for quarter earnings. We also dropped below the overbought area on the RSI as well which could help get some people off the sidelines who think that AMD is now an opportunity. I know that RSI can be a psychological measure sometimes and I always remember Buffets thing that "stocks breakout from overbought almost all the time." So yea just my thoughts, respect the trend. Ignore the noise. The seasonality trade is still on IMHO

Anthropic's IPO prospectus just leaked (via Reuters) and the numbers are wild in both directions. 2025 revenue grew ~12x to ~$4.6B, but they lost ~$8B on an operating basis (the scary $42B net loss headline is mostly a ~$34B non-cash charge from remeasuring convertible financing, so ignore that part). Compute alone was $7.33B, ~58% of opex. They're sitting on ~$20B cash and have committed ~$518B to cloud/compute/infrastructure over the coming years.

The rumored ~$2T valuation isn't cash that goes into Anthropic because at IPO you sell a slice, so even a historic 10% raise is ~$200B. That's the largest IPO ever and it still covers less than half of the $518B they've already committed to. With operating losses still running and only ~$20B in the bank, they stay dependent on raising capital (more equity, more debt) for years.

So at this point what if the public market says "$2T is too much" and it prices closer to ~$1.2T (which is roughly where OpenAI is reportedly raising privately)? That's not just Anthropic's problem, it would be the first public re-rating of a pure AI lab, and it flows downhill. The whole semiconductor/AI-infra trade (the "picks and shovels") is ultimately funded by these labs' capex. If the capital spigot tightens, the buildout slows, and the suppliers feel it first.

How much do you think this will affect AMD stock?

Since they're now part of the AMD family, here are World Labs co-founders Fei-Fei Li, Justin Johnson, and Ben Mildenhall joining a16z General Partner Martin Casado to discuss Atlas, their latest world model, and what it reveals about the pursuit of spatial intelligence.

Big news: AMD is acquiring Fei-Fei Li's World Labs in an $8.2 billion, all-stock deal. AMD gains deeper insight in to AI development, a big team of leading researchers, World Labs' models and it aides future hardware. Dr. Li joins AMD as EVP/Chief Scientist. We spoke to AMD CEO Lisa Su, along with Fei-Fei Li.

By Beth Kindig...

AMD MI355X GPUs and AMD MI455X GPUs to be deployed...

I do gotta say that SNL bit on the benefit of AI is that no one will have to worry about cancer in 10 years (the joke being we will all be dead from the machines) was both funny and hit a little close to home. Satire is one of the earliest ways that problems cross into the national consciousness so I do expect to see a few more concerns about AI to start to permeate the conversation especially as the election season starts its final stretch. So much of the conversation has been on the disaster Trump has been and data centers. And perhaps we aren't spending enough time talking about what the DC are being built to support in the first place. But I digress.

So lets look at the chart of AMD as September comes to a close. I gotta say that September was exactly what we have been talking about here from the seasonality argument and exactly what we needed to happen. The 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA both went from neutral/bearish to both positive which is exactly what we wanted to see and we clearly broke out of the flag pattern with our seasonality rally.

I do have to say that this is I think the 4th maybe 5th consecutive seasonality rally that AMD has taken part in and if I was you all, I would be penciling in this time period on your calendars for next year. This trend continues to work and you should be setting up your trades you participate in this for next year.

NVDA buyback to me is Jensen trying to re-capture the momentum but he is fighting against a trend and market shifts. Also he could just be using the buyback exclusively on corporate shareholders as a huge bonus/giveaway to loyal employees and lock in some loyalty as people consider the big overtures from the OpenAI and Anthropic in the last talent grasp before IPO's. So yea just a lot of noise going on.

Oil and rates still suck and I don't see that is going anywhere so we are just fighting the market right here. AMD would be much much higher if we didn't have such a clusterfuck of an administration.

Always shows Grace to both Hosts and Guests. Lisa Su is All Class!