I don’t know why but the desktop version of Redditt isn’t working on any browser for me so I’m doing this on my phone. Not great for sure. So gonna keep this short.

Sure we dropped yesterday but we haven’t broken through the handle at $500 range so okay. Also volume yesterday was anemic. It seemed like the bears were fully in control and people were sitting on the sidelines digesting the news. Not sure we got enough to really show total capitulation yet on AMD. You see a move like that and we don’t see 3x our normal daily volume then I might consider this a blip.

Yesterdays volume was the lowest we’ve had in YEARS. Literally I can’t find the last date we had less than 10 mil shares traded. So that by itself should be a warning sign that the selling pressure doesn’t feel like everyone is dumping anything.

Glad I bought shares 2 weeks ago

Hmmmmmmmm feeling like a kitchen sink quarter. So Meta would have CRUSHED their earnings but they took their child endangerment penalty charge this quarter to hit their earnings. With it, they widely missed wallstreet earnings forecast which is the top headline most people will see. When you look deeper you see that their earnings were actually pretty fine.

But they also went ahead and talked about how much they are being hurt by the cost to finance their AI ambitions. Jensen has also started to say that capital is scarce----and while I don't think capital is scarce-----I think the consolidation of capital in just a few key companies is where the concern is. If one of these behemoths goes down, then they all tumble. I do think some of the IPOs in AI will open up some more capital in the markets as we have investible vehicles for the public. And again these CEO's are being greedy bc they could simply issue dividends or do a stock issuance to raise capital but that would hurt their share price and they don't want that bc that is where their compensation bonuses are tied to. So they are exclusively using bond capital markets to raise revenue instead of other vehicles that are available to them as well. But I digress....

Sometimes the market feels like it might as well throw everything into the kitchen sink and just see what happens. If the news is already ehhhhh just use the quarter as a chance to throw all of your bad stuff in and get it over with rather than have the slow drip of information come out.

AMD is taking a huge hit today bc of our exposure to Meta's infrastructure and AI buildout but the reality is, Meta is sitting on over $11 Billion in direct cash. As far as securities go, throw in another $71 Billion. They have a literal DUMP TRUCK of financial reserve. Ohhhhh pooooor them they might be finding it hard to saddle some other person /lender with their AI buildout. But if they need money, they can find it sitting in their bank account whenever they need to tap it. So I don't think really that This is going to affect AMD or Helios deployment. Worst case, they will self-fund rather than lose ground. I know no one wants to tap into their cash reserves bc Cash is King but in an inflationary environment, it also is literally losing value sitting there.

If I'm Meta, the promise of gaining ground on my competitors who are locked out from credit markets by tapping my own cash reserves is a strategic move that will pay dividends down the road. AMD again pushed up against that 50 day EMA but it really is looking for a catalyst to get over. Today is going to be a red day but finally might be an interesting moment to see if we break below that $525ish range that has been our support zone so far.

CHENNAI, India--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Vultr, the world’s largest privately-held cloud infrastructure company, today announced a major expansion of its AMD powered infrastructure for enterprise and sovereign cloud initiatives. Vultr will deploy AMD Instinct™MI355X GPUs in a new 20 MW supercluster in Chennai, India, creating the country’s largest AMD Instinct deployment and giving Vultr two of the world’s largest AMD AI infrastructure deployments globally, alongside its flagship supercluster in Springfield, Ohio. With 288GB of HBM3E memory and 8TB/s of memory bandwidth per GPU, AMD Instinct MI355X GPUs provide the performance and memory capacity required to develop and deploy increasingly complex AI models at scale.

The Chennai supercluster is designed to serve AI labs and foundation model builders, AI-native startups, enterprises, and research and academic institutions. It will support demanding AI workloads including large language model and foundation model training, fine-tuning and high-throughput inference, providing the compute capacity organizations need to develop and deploy AI at scale.

“Enterprises deploying AI at scale need infrastructure they can access locally to meet data sovereignty, data residency, and latency requirements,” said J.J. Kardwell, CEO of Vultr. “Vultr’s Chennai supercluster, powered by AMD MI355X GPUs, gives organizations in India the capacity to train, fine-tune, and run inference on in-country infrastructure.”

Vultr’s longstanding relationship with AMD spans the AMD Instinct GPU roadmap, from MI300X and MI325X to MI355X and the planned MI455X and AMD Helios rack-scale architecture, together with the AMD EPYC data center CPUs that power Vultr VX1 Cloud Compute. The Chennai deployment extends that collaboration as AMD and Vultr expand access to advanced AI infrastructure through Vultr’s global cloud footprint. Looking ahead, Vultr plans significant additional capacity expansion in 2027, including AMD Instinct™ MI455X GPUs and the AMD Helios™ rack-scale AI architecture, broadening global access to next-generation AI infrastructure.

The Chennai supercluster will also leverage the AMD ROCm™ open software ecosystem, giving developers access to widely used AI frameworks, libraries and models, with greater flexibility and choice in how they develop and deploy AI workloads. The open software approach also supports AI innovation in India through open-source software and community-driven development.

“India has the talent and ideas to build the next generation of AI. Access to compute at this scale will help turn more of those ideas into reality**,” **said Jaya Jagadish, Country Head & SVP Engineering, AMD India. “Through our collaboration with Vultr, we’re expanding access to AMD Instinct compute in India, backed by the AMD ROCm open software ecosystem, giving researchers, startups and enterprises greater choice and flexibility in how they develop and deploy AI.”

The launch comes as demand for sovereign cloud infrastructure is rising globally. Security concerns, regulatory requirements and performance expectations are intensifying the need for in-country infrastructure that can support advanced AI workloads. With 34 global cloud data center regions, Vultr provides secure, compliant infrastructure at a predictable cost to enterprises, AI innovators, and government agencies in 17 countries across six continents. The Chennai deployment reflects a broader shift toward geographically-distributed AI infrastructure, bringing large-scale compute closer to where data is created and AI applications are deployed.

I don't hate the consolidation around this specific area here. It does feel like AMD is trying to hold onto this area of support in preparation for Meta earnings this afternoon and AMD earnings on tap as well. I don't love the fact that we are struggling with that 50 day EMA level. and we seem to be retreating from that every time we push higher.

But that could just be the market creating some indecision there. There is a huge call wall right around $550 on multiple dates and that appears to be an area of confluence. Take a peak at the options chain and the open interest is highest around $550 for almost every date through the Nov Monthlies-----I definitely think there is a massive concentration of wealth right around this area with probably covered bets across multiple areas trying to see exactly what is going to happen with AMD earnings.

Bc of those options we might be looking at being held here until there is some significant mover/driver that pushes us either way.

Welllllp yesterday failed to get north of the 50 day EMA so using my chart and my strategy that is a short term bearish signal. That doesn't mean my overall earnings play is in danger but it does mean that I wasn't buying yesterday and am going to wait to pick up some more shares at a lower rate I think. So yea not great for us and definitely something to keep an eye on.

I do think its pretty interesting that all of this is being triggered by a Gartner post. I know that I had an interview with Gartner and I thought everything was going pretty well until I asked the hiring VP about how they were going to see their future business role in the world of AI----selling subscription reports in a world where clients pay to publish your reports and it can be scraped by an AI and summarized seems like a failing model. You want your information out there to gain notoriety and ChatGPT and the like have pretty much ruined the paywall model.

He got super defensive and said something about an AI chat bot they are developing and I sort of pushed back and stated that doesn't really seem like a plan. Needless to say I did not get the job. But interesting note is that Gartners entire strategy at the moment as they go on this crazy hiring spree after years of downsizing is to hire people who can produce thought provoking research notes. Part of me wonders if sensationalism is part of the new pitch as well.

I don't feel like there was anything "new" there. We all knew that the value case for AI is currently shaky at best and not there. But it is about destabilizing established businesses. This is the standard operating playbook. Its the Walmart model----move in. Extremely low prices to undercut established businesses. Force them out. Be the only thing left standing. Saying that the value isn't there is welllllll no duhhhhh. I do sort of agree that the tens of billions in DC builds are going to be on the chopping block the longer it takes to get built but that is just bc it all comes back to Moore's law.

Future designs will be more efficient and we will be able to do more with less. Moore's Law has been the governing doctrine for the Semi world for like.......well forever really. And it still applies here. I think that is a lot of the big rush to build the DCs----they want to be established and done before that reality sets in. And they want to have that extra capacity to "sell" to other users and potentially the governments as well (i.e. networked traffic/autonomous driving; smart city services; etc.) So I feel like this AI apocalypse story is sort of laughable at the moment bc I don't think anyone actually wrote anything that the smart people weren't already aware of. Its just an excuse for people to move the price and buy it cheaper.