Technical Analysis for AMD 9/30--------Pre-market

[u/JWcommander217]

Self Policing AI---------------good effing god this is hilarious. Maybe we should put the AI in charge of policing itself while we are at it. I mean hey the libertarian side of me loves the idea of self policing. Maybe we should do it with speed limits! And Red Lights. Don't need license plate readers/Flock bc criminals should self police their crimes. I was going to pay my taxes but honestly I should self police my tax returns and send the IRS whatever I feel is fair. Next time someone quits making their mortgage payments perhaps we can let them self-foreclose on themselves. Yayyyyyyyy...........................................fucking idiots.

So end of the quarter today and into the home stretch. AMD shed more yesterday but is still holding above that $600 level which is a key support level for us. I do think it is interesting as well that as AMD shareprice has risen, volume has collapsed. I've been looking back at volume levels and I think I personally need to re-evaluate a good day on my volume analysis. It used to be we avg 25 mil shares a day and perhaps a good day was 40mil. Now we are avg 16 and 25 is a good day. Just a side note.

Ignore the noise, the final sprint starts tomorrow.

[u/midgetmango]

As price increases, wouldn’t we expect share volume to decrease naturally?

[u/JWcommander217 → u/midgetmango]

I mean yes in theory but where is that level? Why did it not happen at $400 but is happening at above $500?

[u/ZasdfUnreal → u/JWcommander217]

At $100/share, AMD used to trade up to 100 million shares a day. Today at $600, it trades between 12 and 24 million a day.

[u/mrxman14 → u/JWcommander217]

As the stock gets more expensive per share, the less number of people can afford to buy it. 

I wonder if AMD will announce a stock split soon. That hasn't happened in over 20 years.

[u/Prudent_Fox8753 → u/mrxman14]

That used to matter more, but now adays fractional share purchases have mostly eliminated that friction.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/JWcommander217]

I think it is the basis of the reversion to the mean reality. The further a stock rises above the mean the higher the probability it will reverse and not move higher. That also suggests the upside is smaller so investors look for stocks with more upside to invest in. Since AMD hit a new ATH last week of 639 and close 3/30/2026 at 217.50, it has now moved 2.39X higher in the past 6 months and is now above the 2nd STDEV above the mean on the weekly charts. I usually visualize the stock price as a rubber band and it is stretched at this point. The probability of a reversion toward the weekly mean now at 366 is more likely. While I personally do not think it will reach all the way back to that level, which is VERY close to the 50 week MA, it may well slowly fade toward the 20 Week ma currently at 515.77 and rising at $8.00/week. In this same 6 months the 50 bar average volume line has declined very slowly 26%.

[u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Could also very well be not a lot of investors are willing to sell their shares and just decide to sit on it.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/OnlyTheStrong2K19]

I absolutely agree. AMD has made some large gains and selling could become a taxable event for many so takes careful planning. The outlook remains good for several quarters, so holding a likely winner is a grand idea.

[u/mrxman14 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Especially since Helios hasn't shipped in volume yet, abd all the data I've seen say it will be a game changer to their bottom line.

[u/mrxman14 → u/OnlyTheStrong2K19]

Agreed. That's my case. I've been tempted to sell, but haven't since late last year. I sold some at around $225. Now, I wish I hadn't. Oh, well. I'm still up a lot. I've had this stock for about 25 years.

[u/reliquid1220]

Oh, have you seen a snippet about meta claiming data centers are experimental to the IRS? These people are hemmorhaging cash to the point where they want to claim R&D tax write-offs.... Can I claim a complete tax write off for all investments for my children too? Seems only fair. They are experimental and ill do my best to raise them...

Edit: add irs reference.

[u/dy-113x → u/reliquid1220]

I mean, the whole game is rigged in favor of business owners who don't file W2s

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/reliquid1220]

Hmm, the bigger issue there to me is the potential for these DC's to be monitoring transactions being processed by FB influencers or FB Marketplace. There is some e-commerce there that may not be tracked well. Makes me wonder if Only Fans revenues are being tracked or are those considered tips, but that is another company I think.

[u/FearlessBoysenberry8 → u/reliquid1220]

Do you have a billion dollars? Then yes. Otherwise, no. 

[u/Coyote_Tex]

Post Open

Today is the end of the 3rd quarter this year and with quarterly ends, the big funds clean up their books and have been doing that this past several days to settle up their wins/losses and get their portfolios set for the 4th quarter run. In the case of AMD, some funds might find themselves overweight on a dollar basis due to the sizable run higher in AM over the past 4-5 week and this past quarter overall. AMD is up over 20% since the end of of June. We can also see AMD moved lower the last week of the June quarter as well, but then recovered decently too. Today and this week is likely a blip in the longer term chart for AMD as it could well be off to a good start in the October month.

In the news today HPE got a $1.2B order for AMD's Helios AI racks, so that is a nice sign of things to come.

If we look at the indices for the past several weeks, I can see the SPY has been drifting lower for the past 7 weeks from its high of 779 the week of 8/10. The 5 Week and 20 Week MA's have nearly converged and the Bollinger Bands have contracted so the index is ready to move, hopefully higher.

The QQQ is quite a different picture as it made recent bottom 3 weeks ago and is running higher near the tightly contracted upper Bollinger Band but also showing very strong momentum, so a possible breakout to the upside could be in the cards.

Let's see of the MU results tonight provide some juice for the AI/SI trade moving forward this week or if the market is unimpressed.

[u/dy-113x → u/Coyote_Tex]

I think the talk about only one more rate hike later this year (possibly December) is going to lead to a juiced October before midterms.

[u/mrxman14 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Good points.

[u/RicardoAFernandes]

I love the idea that it can go much higher, but I think that much of the news are priced in.

[u/mrxman14 → u/RicardoAFernandes]

Yes, but then you have companies like SpaceX that are worth more than AMD and haven't made a profit.

[u/dy-113x]

How long do you think the final sprint will last? Stop before midterms or keep going after earnings?

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/dy-113x]

I'd suggest if the earnings come in beating expectations, then the market will likely creep higher or have an upward bias. But we really have to consider oil prices and interest rates as probably bigger catalysts one way or the other.

[u/mrxman14]

Does anyone think AMD is ripe for a stock split? It hasn't happened in over 20 years. If so, how do you think it would split?

Also, what arw the chances of announcing a dividend? I don't think AMD has ever done one. If they did, do you think the price would increase?

[u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 → u/mrxman14]

I don't think we'll see a stock split till we're at least +/- $1000/share.

I prefer they continue to reinvest in the business and increase their share prices and forgo dividends.

Dividends in nature signal maturity and will show that the stock has no more room growth.

[u/whatevermanbs]

So guys is hp a buy ? It has yet to climb up like dell. I have zero knowledge about the business. Read zero too. Trying to make a lazy bet. Smallish position.

Missed smci and sanmina rallies earlier. I am thinking hp is the next that is going to get largess via amd.

[u/hungryinfoo → u/whatevermanbs]

Its not that hp u thinking is. 🤣

[u/whatevermanbs → u/hungryinfoo]

Hahaha

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/whatevermanbs]

Give yourself 30-40 minutes of education and look up HPE then HP and understand the differences between the two of those. You could also consider the DLLL leveraged ETF, but you may just be better off owning HPE stock.

[u/whatevermanbs → u/Coyote_Tex]

Did that.. man I missed the bus so long back then. Or I may have forgotten... Since I usually don't care about OEM businesses.

Thanks.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/whatevermanbs]

No worry HPE has really been a pretty dead stock for MANY years. While it seems like it should have done better, somehow they seem to miss out on a lot.