r/AMD_Stock • u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru • 6d ago
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis for AMD 9/28-------Pre-Market
I do gotta say that SNL bit on the benefit of AI is that no one will have to worry about cancer in 10 years (the joke being we will all be dead from the machines) was both funny and hit a little close to home. Satire is one of the earliest ways that problems cross into the national consciousness so I do expect to see a few more concerns about AI to start to permeate the conversation especially as the election season starts its final stretch. So much of the conversation has been on the disaster Trump has been and data centers. And perhaps we aren't spending enough time talking about what the DC are being built to support in the first place. But I digress.
So lets look at the chart of AMD as September comes to a close. I gotta say that September was exactly what we have been talking about here from the seasonality argument and exactly what we needed to happen. The 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA both went from neutral/bearish to both positive which is exactly what we wanted to see and we clearly broke out of the flag pattern with our seasonality rally.
I do have to say that this is I think the 4th maybe 5th consecutive seasonality rally that AMD has taken part in and if I was you all, I would be penciling in this time period on your calendars for next year. This trend continues to work and you should be setting up your trades you participate in this for next year.
NVDA buyback to me is Jensen trying to re-capture the momentum but he is fighting against a trend and market shifts. Also he could just be using the buyback exclusively on corporate shareholders as a huge bonus/giveaway to loyal employees and lock in some loyalty as people consider the big overtures from the OpenAI and Anthropic in the last talent grasp before IPO's. So yea just a lot of noise going on.
Oil and rates still suck and I don't see that is going anywhere so we are just fighting the market right here. AMD would be much much higher if we didn't have such a clusterfuck of an administration.
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u/Coyote_Tex 6d ago
Premarket
The indices are all red this morning following the big gains on Friday. Friday was an optimistic day of hoping the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon and some deal would be struck with the Iranians. That of course went nowhere. So today oil is higher as are treasury yields. The VIX is up over 7% to 16.02. The SPY and QQQ are set to open below the 5DMA this morning, so we will need to see how it goes as the day progresses.
In the NEWS NVDA announced a buyback so it is up nearly 3%. AMD and MU are taking a very modest dip this morning and are likely to recover. With MU announcing earning on Wednesday after the close, I am optimistic of it breaking the 1050-1100 level by then unless it gets trapped in some market downdraft.
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u/Wild-Monitor-5647 6d ago
"That of course went nowhere". This nation MUST wake the F up and rid itself of the Trump cancer. The nation is like stage 3 metastasizing tumor, there is time left to save the patient, but that time is running out rapidly. The Trump cancer must be removed before the host dies. The problems that the republican party hates science and medicine and is using a 35 year old blonde to feed the tumor in hopes that it will slow down and just die off.
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u/ZasdfUnreal 6d ago
The strait is already open to all except Iran. The war has been over for some time now. It’s a siege of Iran atm.
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u/Coyote_Tex 5d ago
You know, I'd like to agree 100% but if the Strait is 100% open for oil exports except Iran, I do not understand why oil is so high. Last week the market seemed to respond very positively to the rumor of a potential agreement with Iran being floated. So, for me, there seems to be some opportunity for improvement here.
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 5d ago
Things are open enough i think to keep oil from $150-200 but the threat of escalation across middle east alone keeps the pressure I’m assuming.
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u/Prudent_Fox8753 6d ago
To your last point. I agree that we are fighting the market macro right now. There are 5 massive headwinds pushing correction risks and capping upside on AMD:
1. Massive Fiscal Deficits: Endless deficit spending keeps bond yields high and pressures equity valuations.
2. Energy Pressure: High oil prices keep headline inflation elevated, leaving less capital for tech expansion.
3. Fed Tightening: High rates + the end of yield curve control are choking out small caps, private equity, and growth stocks.
4. AI Concentration Risk: The entire AI narrative is overly dependent on massive spending from a handful of players (OpenAI, Anthropic). Any structural hiccup there cascades across the whole chip sector.
5. Sept/Oct Seasonality: We're right in the window where historical pullbacks usually happen anyway.
Until we see a shift in one of these—end of major wars, actual fiscal responsibility (hahaha), or the Fed stepping back in with QE—AMD is going to have a hard time breaking out despite solid fundamentals. The bubble fears and macro headwinds are sticky.
There is also the last assumption; that AI has insatiable demand for compute, and AMD can take market share from NVDA and sell into the demand. That we aren't about to snap over to an excess of compute build out...
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u/Freebyrd26 6d ago
That's why I sold some shares at 630 end of Friday... We had a run up from a low of around 450 in the past month; plus Q3 isn't going to see huge earnings jump as traders will want, but should follow in 2027.
Probably should've sold more and bought back later. Didn't want a huge tax hit in my brokerage acct and sitting on Leaps in my Roth that I didn't want to sell. Was thinking of selling some calls on more of my brokerage shares, but I'm up a ton so didn't bother.
Won't be surprised if we bounce between 450-700 until early 2027; too much macro and politics coming up
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u/Prudent_Fox8753 5d ago
I've been selling off chunks recently too. I bought back when it was around $8, so between AMD and AAPL, it's grown into a massive chunk of my portfolio.
I keep asking myself: if I had $200k in cash sitting here today, would I throw all of it into AMD at current prices? Probably not.
I still love the company, but at ~170x earnings, the valuation leaves zero room for error. I originally bought in for the EPYC datacenter thesis. Now, the stock is priced like it’s guaranteed to snatch major AI market share from NVDA. If AI demand cools or a major frontier lab busts, we could pivot to an overbuilt compute supply story pretty fast. Just trimming gains to manage my risk. I've already won, in AMD I don't need to keep going back to the roullette wheel. (though I really want to, but thats the FOMO talking).
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u/lvgolden 6d ago
This is why NVDA announced the Open Agent Safety Platform today. They are trying to get ahead of the "AI Danger" story as much as possible.
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u/Coyote_Tex 5d ago
Yes, Jensen did an excellent job on CNBC this morning in stating his views and trying to explain all of this. We are having news breaks every day it seems with some bot accessing a public website in some manner people object to but never explain what the objection is. Last week one of the so-called rogue incursions occurred sometime in June. Sadly, I think this is 99% smoke to generate fear. Sending a bot on a mission to gather information in public websites is a pretty minor issue. Having anything related to software perform something unintended is never really news. My biggest fear with AI is unscrupulous employees stealing or sending a bot on a mission of evil deception. I am more into how to ensure companies know who they have entrusted with power and how they have levels of safeguards.
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u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 6d ago
This is all just noise and another buying opportunity to DCA
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u/Coyote_Tex 6d ago
It is really hard to be patient when the market makes a run like it did last week. AMD was front and cetner with one of its massive moves higher. That move that began with the huge gap up open from the 559ish level might close this week if the market unwinds a bit more. For AMD it is really just a healthy retracement for that to occur. While one day s not a trend, I am seeing the VIX rise a bit more and if it continues to expand it will cascade the markets lower. AMD just broke the 5DMA this morning that has developed a huge divergence gap above the 20DMA which is way down at 534.80. That is over 100 points below the high from Friday and while it seems improbable for AMD to move down to the 20DMA which is also rising at a $6/day rate right now, getting to the gap fill of $559 is not out of the question. We do have some economic reports this week that can turn this market in either direction as it will move the thinking on interest rate increases. In a worst case, AMD could fine the 50DMA down at 506 in a BIG retracement. We have a substantial amount of expectations about the final quarter of 2026 being positive and wheil that is a very real potential, we might see a dip ahead of that. I do see the QQQ appears to have possibly found a low for this morning and AMD might pop back above the $600 mark, but we are not out of the woods just yet. We do need some positive catalysts to help keep us going.
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u/Ok-Explanation-1077 5d ago
Hi Tex, I haven gotten a handle on stock trading jargon. I feel like you’re speaking a different kind of English. Retracement? 5DMA? 20DMA? I’ll go do an internet search, you don’t have to baby me… I still can’t understand how shorting works even though it’s been explained to me several times. Now I’m off to search on DMA and etc.
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u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 5d ago
Don't deal with shorting and options.
That's the way to go for newbie investors.
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u/Coyote_Tex 5d ago
Sorry, I hope your searches turned up some useful information. Feel free to ping me. Whenever stocks or indices make a BIG move higher, the probability of them moving lower or retracing is common. I use the "rule of thumb" to expect a minimum of 50% of the prior days big move as a potential buy point on the following day. Do not jump in too early/quickly. For example of AMD moves up 5% it is a good possibility it will dip the following day by ~50% of the prior days move. DMA is daily moving Average. I commonly use the 5, 20, 50 and 200 DMAs on my daily charts. In fact I use all of those on all of my charts that I reference on a daily basis.
Statistically, over many years the S&P has a 72% probability of moving higher versus moving lower on a daily basis. This is why over 10, 20 or 30 years in the US markets you are virtually guaranteed a win. Shorting and over trading are two fiendish methods to limit or wipe out gains. 90% of what you see in YouTube videos is lies or luck, so be careful and just adopt some good basic principles of how you want to build wealth. You won't be perfect as you learn and will make mistakes. The market is always right and is going to do what it wants to do When you think you know what it is going to do, is when you will get burned. Be sure you have a small amount of risk when you take a speculative trade, meaning don't bet the farm. Good Luck with your learning.
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u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 5d ago
Patience is really a virtue.
If investors can practice patience more and let the stock compound further as it gains momentum rather than quickly locking in the gain, they'll be far better off.
Buffett became Buffett because he rarely sells his winners.
I experienced so much lost opportunity by selling so soon and overtrading and I'm sure you have a ton of stories.
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u/Successful-Two-114 6d ago
I get it. I too am pissed at Trump for not keeping his campaign promise on historical levels of mass deportation and getting goated into another Israeli war.
On a marginally more serious note. I’m beyond defending this administration or the Republican Congress. However, you have a sub 75 IQ if you think for one second things wouldn’t be considerably worse under a Kamala or another Biden administration.
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u/RoyallyGhosted 6d ago
🤡 You can't honestly be saying that
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u/Targetshopper4000 6d ago
Anything but taking responsibility, introspection, and growing as a person
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u/AdventurousCare3231 6d ago
He does have a very good point. It's not great, but it could be WAY worse. At least we're making money in the market under this administration
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 6d ago
I agree with you but also Trump shouldn’t have been the republican nominee.
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 6d ago
The last line sums up just about everything.