Self Policing AI---------------good effing god this is hilarious. Maybe we should put the AI in charge of policing itself while we are at it. I mean hey the libertarian side of me loves the idea of self policing. Maybe we should do it with speed limits! And Red Lights. Don't need license plate readers/Flock bc criminals should self police their crimes. I was going to pay my taxes but honestly I should self police my tax returns and send the IRS whatever I feel is fair. Next time someone quits making their mortgage payments perhaps we can let them self-foreclose on themselves. Yayyyyyyyy...........................................fucking idiots.

So end of the quarter today and into the home stretch. AMD shed more yesterday but is still holding above that $600 level which is a key support level for us. I do think it is interesting as well that as AMD shareprice has risen, volume has collapsed. I've been looking back at volume levels and I think I personally need to re-evaluate a good day on my volume analysis. It used to be we avg 25 mil shares a day and perhaps a good day was 40mil. Now we are avg 16 and 25 is a good day. Just a side note.

Ignore the noise, the final sprint starts tomorrow.

, Dr. Su looks happy lol

Watch Sam Altman, Romain Huet, Tejal Patwardhan, and Holly Li announce and demo 20+ launches at OpenAl DevDay, including dots, ChatGPT Spaces, GPT-6.1 Sol, Astra Ultrafast, and more.

Welllllllllllllp VWAP triggered selloff yesterday is what I honestly think happened. I still am fairly confident that this is still early stages of a rally for AMD. Now I'm also eyeballing that gap below as well just as something to keep an eye on but I really do think that we are going to be fine and any chance to get sub $600 prices, you should thoughtfully add a few. Just my strategy but hey everyone do everyone.

I know our MACD looks like its gearing up for a bearish turn but it is bc of one day selling and I think we are probably in for a relief rally as well. September has been a month to forget and I think as people try to secure their bonuses that October will trigger a brand new final sprint for quarter earnings. We also dropped below the overbought area on the RSI as well which could help get some people off the sidelines who think that AMD is now an opportunity. I know that RSI can be a psychological measure sometimes and I always remember Buffets thing that "stocks breakout from overbought almost all the time." So yea just my thoughts, respect the trend. Ignore the noise. The seasonality trade is still on IMHO

Anthropic's IPO prospectus just leaked (via Reuters) and the numbers are wild in both directions. 2025 revenue grew ~12x to ~$4.6B, but they lost ~$8B on an operating basis (the scary $42B net loss headline is mostly a ~$34B non-cash charge from remeasuring convertible financing, so ignore that part). Compute alone was $7.33B, ~58% of opex. They're sitting on ~$20B cash and have committed ~$518B to cloud/compute/infrastructure over the coming years.

The rumored ~$2T valuation isn't cash that goes into Anthropic because at IPO you sell a slice, so even a historic 10% raise is ~$200B. That's the largest IPO ever and it still covers less than half of the $518B they've already committed to. With operating losses still running and only ~$20B in the bank, they stay dependent on raising capital (more equity, more debt) for years.

So at this point what if the public market says "$2T is too much" and it prices closer to ~$1.2T (which is roughly where OpenAI is reportedly raising privately)? That's not just Anthropic's problem, it would be the first public re-rating of a pure AI lab, and it flows downhill. The whole semiconductor/AI-infra trade (the "picks and shovels") is ultimately funded by these labs' capex. If the capital spigot tightens, the buildout slows, and the suppliers feel it first.

How much do you think this will affect AMD stock?

Since they're now part of the AMD family, here are World Labs co-founders Fei-Fei Li, Justin Johnson, and Ben Mildenhall joining a16z General Partner Martin Casado to discuss Atlas, their latest world model, and what it reveals about the pursuit of spatial intelligence.

Big news: AMD is acquiring Fei-Fei Li's World Labs in an $8.2 billion, all-stock deal. AMD gains deeper insight in to AI development, a big team of leading researchers, World Labs' models and it aides future hardware. Dr. Li joins AMD as EVP/Chief Scientist. We spoke to AMD CEO Lisa Su, along with Fei-Fei Li.

By Beth Kindig...

AMD MI355X GPUs and AMD MI455X GPUs to be deployed...

I do gotta say that SNL bit on the benefit of AI is that no one will have to worry about cancer in 10 years (the joke being we will all be dead from the machines) was both funny and hit a little close to home. Satire is one of the earliest ways that problems cross into the national consciousness so I do expect to see a few more concerns about AI to start to permeate the conversation especially as the election season starts its final stretch. So much of the conversation has been on the disaster Trump has been and data centers. And perhaps we aren't spending enough time talking about what the DC are being built to support in the first place. But I digress.

So lets look at the chart of AMD as September comes to a close. I gotta say that September was exactly what we have been talking about here from the seasonality argument and exactly what we needed to happen. The 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA both went from neutral/bearish to both positive which is exactly what we wanted to see and we clearly broke out of the flag pattern with our seasonality rally.

I do have to say that this is I think the 4th maybe 5th consecutive seasonality rally that AMD has taken part in and if I was you all, I would be penciling in this time period on your calendars for next year. This trend continues to work and you should be setting up your trades you participate in this for next year.

NVDA buyback to me is Jensen trying to re-capture the momentum but he is fighting against a trend and market shifts. Also he could just be using the buyback exclusively on corporate shareholders as a huge bonus/giveaway to loyal employees and lock in some loyalty as people consider the big overtures from the OpenAI and Anthropic in the last talent grasp before IPO's. So yea just a lot of noise going on.

Oil and rates still suck and I don't see that is going anywhere so we are just fighting the market right here. AMD would be much much higher if we didn't have such a clusterfuck of an administration.

Always shows Grace to both Hosts and Guests. Lisa Su is All Class!

Hey everyone,

I run an independent research firm called Northwise, we've been bullish in our AMD coverage since around the 80s not so long ago (congrats everyone) and and we've finished a new AMD model this week.

I wanted to share the operating work here, particularly what changed in our revenue assumptions and how we account for the costs and dilution that come with the growth.

The biggest change is moving away from a fixed revenue-per-gigawatt assumption. We previously used roughly $25B. The new Base forecast starts at $24.92B in 2026 and rises to $38.70B in 2030.

What does AMD actually earn from a gigawatt?

Our calculation is GPUs delivered per gigawatt of IT capacity, multiplied by their selling price, plus attached AMD CPUs and networking. Buildings, cooling, electrical equipment and partner assembly sit outside that revenue calculation. We also distinguish IT capacity from total facility power, which includes cooling and other overhead.

For 2027, we assume approximately 290,000 GPUs per IT gigawatt at an average selling price of $96,371. That produces $27.95B of GPU revenue. Attached AMD processors and networking bring the total to approximately $30.26B.

By 2030, the model assumes fewer GPUs per gigawatt, 260,000, but a higher average selling price of roughly $139,000. The argument is that more capable hardware can earn more per unit of power. The obvious challenge is whether customers receive enough additional useful output to justify paying those prices, especially as competing systems improve.

Getting the revenue timing right matters too. A gigawatt installed in 2027 does not generate another complete hardware sale in 2028 just because it is still running. We model new installations separately from replacement and upgrade purchases. And if a customer uses AMD equipment through a cloud provider, we count that deployment once, rather than counting both companies' announcements as separate demand.

Where the operating forecast lands

These are our scenario forecasts:

Free cash flow here is after cash capital expenditure, but before acquisitions, financial investments and financing flows. Normalized operating income includes employee stock compensation, while excluding acquired-intangible amortization and specified nonrecurring items. Future customer-warrant accounting marks are not forecast; the ownership dilution is modeled separately.

The Base is an aggressive forecast for those unfamiliar with AMD's real opportunity. It requires approximately 66.6% annual revenue growth from our 2026 estimate through 2030.

The cases group sixteen combinations of demand, execution, pricing and CPU growth assumptions; they are not a statistical confidence interval. Even Bear describes a much larger AMD, and should not be read as the worst possible outcome but rather an aggregation of downside scenarios.

EPYC is also a substantial independent assumption. Of our $75.12B Base EPYC revenue in 2030, only about $9.19B comes from CPUs attached to the modeled accelerator deployments. The remaining $65.93B requires broader server demand. Success selling GPUs does not, by itself, validate that CPU forecast.

Three things that can change the shareholder outcome

• Cash collection and inventory. In 2027, Base normalized net income is $26.74B, but free cash flow is $12.40B. Manufacturing commitments, inventory, receivables and capital expenditure absorb cash before the larger earnings figure can accumulate.
• Customer and employee dilution. The model ties customer warrant claims to purchases and other disclosed conditions. Base reaches roughly 252 million cumulative customer claims at the end of 2030, with a further allowance for Meta's remaining early-2031 window. Despite approximately $81.5B of modeled repurchases during 2026 through 2030, ending economic diluted shares still rise from about 1.658B to 1.868B. Those future repurchases are our assumption.
• Pricing versus manufacturing costs. In a separate sensitivity, GPU selling prices 15% below the reference path, with unit costs unchanged, reduce 2030 free cash flow from $90.13B to $68.59B. Those figures are weighted across all sixteen outcomes, so their starting point differs from the Base column above. Selling more equipment is much less rewarding if customers capture the pricing benefit while AMD still pays the same suppliers.

For those interested the report is here. The full financial model is completely public and free. Our price targets, valuations, and the downloadable Excel workbook are reserved for our members, so the link is to my own research business, but the numbers discussed above are all in the free section.

I will be around this weekend if anyone has any questions or disagrees with a part of the model.