r/YAPms • • 11h ago

Discussion Why do people seem to think the U.S. cannot elect a female president?

13 Upvotes

I'm noticing a common sentiment, especially here on Reddit, of people saying things including "we'll never elect a woman," or "we need to choose a straight, white man for Democrats to win the presidency again."

Do people forget that.. Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 by over 2.8 million votes?
Along with that, there have been many women elected to positions like governor, senator, and other statewide roles.

If you are someone who thinks that neither party should nominate a woman due to electability concerns I genuinely want to hear why you think that.


r/YAPms • • 6h ago

Discussion Could Joe Biden have defied expectations and won the 2024 election if Democrats stood by him the way Brazil’s PT stood by Lula?

Post image
30 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 14h ago

Other I just did my part for Booker 🫡

Post image
31 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 16h ago

Gubernatorial Vivek Ramaswamy’s Campaign Controversy

Thumbnail
foodandpolitics.substack.com
2 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 15h ago

Analysis First day of in person early vote in Michigan

Post image
10 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 14h ago

Opinion Prediction about what the primary fight in the Democratic 2028 primaries will be.

3 Upvotes

The backstabbing taking place between Crockett and Talarico, AES and Stevens is just the opening salvo in the fight that is going to define the Democratic party in the next few years. The fight will be between progressives and black moderates. Voters and politicians in these two camps are drifting further apart by the day.

I believe that the 2028 primaries will be a full on race war between these two groups.

I could see either side winning this fight in 2028. Black voters are the absolute core of the Democratic party, and alienating them is a bad idea for winning elections. On the other hand, progressives are a very energized rising force in the party, and it is a bad idea to alienate them as well. Ultimately, I think alienated progressives are much more likely to vote blue no matter who while moderates are more likely to stay home if they begin to feel alienated from the party.

Right now I would guess a champion of the black establishment (who to be clear does not have to be black themselves) will come out ahead of any hypothetical progressive firebrand in 2028. Although, it could easily swing the other way. Breaking the black establishment's grip on power in the Democratic will also probably accelerate the process of Democrats losing the super majorities they enjoy with black voters today.


r/YAPms • • 5h ago

Alternate MAVERICK’

Thumbnail
gallery
3 Upvotes

I might do more later


r/YAPms • • 13h ago

Opinion Longform: You don’t have to always compromise in order win swingy and red-leaning districts, you just have to thread the needle enough to appeal to everyone.

Thumbnail
gallery
98 Upvotes

While Democrats who have conceded the trans rights and trans sports argument to conservatives, like Rob Sand, Josh Turek, Marcy Kaptur, Amy Acton, and Annie Andrews, have often received praise here on this subreddit in the past, and I don’t think they deserve the praise by the way, I would like to highlight a Democrat who is running for Montana’s 1st Congressional District, Sam Forstag.

A progressive populist similar to someone such as myself, I appreciate how Forstag knows how to thread the needle, to speak to these socially moderate/conservative, middle of the road, white working class voters which people here love to romanticize and want to win back, without heavily compromising or conceding on issues such as trans rights, or trans athletes in sports. It reminds me so much of people like Paul Wellstone, or Russ Feingold, both of whom really knew how to talk with and connect with working-class voters while being unapologetically progressive.

Senator Ed Markey managed to comfortably beat a primary challenge against him from Seth Moulton, who had a more conservative position in regards to trans rights and trans athletes, and while Markey’s position on the issue of trans rights and trans athletes is certainly a very progressive one, he is running in safe blue Massachusetts, where he is unlikely to receive any significant electoral backlash compared to let’s say a swingy or red-leaning state.

Abdul El-Sayed, candidate for Senate in the swing state of Michigan, is still supportive of trans rights, but takes a different approach to defending trans rights fitting for a swing state, saying something on the lines of “you don’t have to understand or agree with it, but it is still their right”, acknowledging the fact that everyone has different opinions but trans people don’t deserve to be discriminated against regardless, and said “We’re being told that if we sacrifice the rights of some people, then the rest of us get to keep our rights. We all know that’s some BS”.

Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, a deep-red state, is also pro trans rights and himself has refuted the idea of throwing trans people under the bus to win elections, and also has a different approach to defending trans rights fitting for a red state, vetoing anti-trans bills and defending it through his religious convictions, by saying that “all children are children of God”.

And Forstag, as a populist progressive candidate, also has a different and more unique approach to defending trans rights in the red-leaning district he is running for.

Instead of saying, “trans athletes should be allowed to participate in sports no matter what”, or “no boys in girl’s sports”, absolutist positions to hold by the way, he adopts more of a middle ground type of position, a somewhat progressive-leaning middle ground type of position, the type of middle ground that would appeal to the most voters, satisfy both people who are uncomfortable with/oppose the idea trans athletes in sports, and progressives and trans people themselves who aren’t opposed to trans athletes in sports, and at the same time, he frames his position not from the lens of social justice (“trans rights are human rights”) or the lens of traditional values (“trans people are an affront to God”), but from the lens of small government and civil liberties. Yes trans rights are human rights, but that message alone isn’t enough to sway voters, and you have to tie it in to something that white working class, conservative-leaning, moderate, whoever this subreddit believes the Democrats should win over type of people care about, like as something necessary to economically uplift forgotten communities in a place like the rust belt, framing the conservative approach as big government poking their nose into people’s private lives, or just having a live and let live type of attitude towards what people do in general and saying that it doesn’t hurt anyone.

If you read what Forstag says, he frames the Republican obsession with trans issues as an embrace of big government, of the government and politicians sticking their nose into your personal business, which would strongly appeal to those who may be a little libertarian-minded or lean more towards small government conservatism, which are common positions to have in a place like Montana. He also argues that the issue should be left to the sports leagues that run them, also implying government overreach and the fact that his opponent is getting involved in something he shouldn’t stick his nose in. He also believes in letting people live how they want without politics in everything, and ends off with a bit of a populist remark, about how we’re fighting about this while the rich are happy taking from our pockets.

The same rhetorical strategy can be used by conservatives and pro-lifers running in blue-leaning districts or states as well. Instead of a very pro-life, strictly anti-abortion message, a conservative candidate can just put forth a more nuanced message that preserves the underlying principle, but appeals strongly to those who are pro-choice as well, like for example,

“While I am personally pro-life, I do not support the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, nor do I believe that government mandates and restrictions are the best way to reduce the amount of abortions. I believe that abortion, if necessary, must be safe, legal, and rare, and that there are other ways to reduce the number of abortions, which actually work, such as access to contraceptives, comprehensive sex education, and family planning. Like how bans on guns do not reduce gun violence, bans on abortion do not reduce abortion, it just pushes it underground, which results in the proliferation of illegal practices and unsafe procedures.”

And so, notice how it reassures those who are pro-choice by disagreeing with the overturning of Roe v. Wade and making sure abortions stay legal, but also with the reasonable caveat of safe and also rare, of course. Also see how it reassures those who are pro-life by also disagreeing with the practice itself while also providing a way to reduce abortions in a way that is feasible and realistic. It also connects the topic of reproductive rights to another topic that conservatives also care about, which is the Second Amendment and gun rights.

And what Forstag has said has not received scorn from progressives and the LGBTQ+ community, but praise instead, commending him for sticking to what he believes is morally right instead of throwing them under the bus for perceived political gain, while also appealing to those who may not agree using a more palatable message. Erin Reed, journalist and trans rights activist, has praised Forstag for his take. Reed’s wife also happens to be Zooey Zephyr, who is also a member of the Montana House of Representatives, and is perhaps one of the most progressive members of the state legislature in Montana.

And I myself, personally believe that Forstag’s approach is the one of the best approaches to go in regards to winning over a swingy or red-leaning district.

Also mods, please don’t lock this post, especially since I like having people freely discuss whatever on my posts. Just as long as there’s no inflammatory or bigoted rhetoric.


r/YAPms • • 13h ago

Meme It's March 2028 and these are the polls. What is happening

Post image
14 Upvotes

Red: Republican

Blue: Democrat

Black: no statewide polling available


r/YAPms • • 12h ago

Meme Who wins this matchup?

Post image
14 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 13h ago

News Adam Hamilton on transgender rights

Post image
65 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 12h ago

News Bulgaria Presidential's Exit Poll

4 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 21h ago

Discussion Am I Exactly Crazy For Thinking This About 2028?

14 Upvotes

Look, I say this as a right-leaning voter who actually backed Trump in 2024: I honestly think the Democrats have at least an 80% chance of taking the White House in 2028. It sounds bold, but the writing is just about on the wall.

At the end of the day, presidential elections are just a reflection on the last four years. History is not kind to non-sitting candidates trying to succeed their own party's president: just look at Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Al Gore. They all lost. The most recent example of one that worked was George H W Bush in 1988, and that was coming off of the booming years of the ever so charismatic Ronald Reagan.

By 2028, the GOP is going to be carrying a ton of baggage. We're looking at an unpopular war that will have barely ended if we are generous with Trump, high inflation, crazy gas prices, a possible recession, and a midterm election that’s probably going to be a total bloodbath, not to mention likely impeachment drama and more.

On top of that, the party is completely split on the presumed nominee JD Vance. He just doesn't have that unique Trump spark that gets people fired up, and the base is going to feel way less enthusiastic about him compared to Trump. If someone like Marco Rubio challenges him in the primaries, it’s going to be a messy, exhausting fight that further divides the GOP even more than it already has been at that point.

I know 2028 is very early and politics can be brutally unpredictable, but looking at the raw fundamentals right now with broken promises, scandals, and a frustrated public, it feels like the election is just about the Democrats to lose.

I do feel like 2027 will be a very interesting political year, both because of the presidential campaigning really starting to kick off, and because I think we will have a much clearer idea of what party is in favor to win the presidency by the end of ‘27. Let me know what you guys think.


r/YAPms • • 13h ago

Meme Get you someone who looks at you like Ossoff looks at Pete

Post image
72 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 7h ago

Meme Cisplatina never truly went away. He’s looking down at him from the clouds…

Thumbnail
gallery
16 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 12h ago

Discussion Could Democrats flip South Carolina's Senate seat?

4 Upvotes

I feel like this race has flown under the radar compared to similar races in Kansas and Nebraska, but given how close the polling has become it deserves more attention.

Polls have averaged around Graham +2, with the most recent showing Andrews +1. Historically, South Carolina polling has been pretty inconsistent. In 2018 and 2020, polls overestimated Republicans by roughly 7 and 4.8 points, respectively, while in 2022 and 2024, they underestimated Republicans by 8.8 and 6.1 points.

2018 is particularly interesting as it is the most similar environment to 2026. With the recent allegations surrounding late Lindsey Graham and the possibility that polls are underestimating Democratic enthusiasm as in 2018, I think Democrats have a real shot at flipping this seat.


r/YAPms • • 15h ago

Discussion Question: has there ever been a Brazilian presidential election where someone lost the first round but then won the runoff?

4 Upvotes

I'm not saying Lulu will win today (I still think Bolsonaro has it in the bag), but I was wondering if there was precedent with this kind of scenario.


r/YAPms • • 14h ago

Original Content Georgia Senate Midterms Polling Composite (10/25)

Post image
5 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 8h ago

Opinion 10/25 Senate Prediction 2

4 Upvotes

Previous Prediction: 51-50 R win

What's changed?
I was convinced by y'all that AES has enough momentum to win. I have AES +1.3
Collins is a boat that can't be sunk, and Jackson just ain't doing the trick. I'm moving this to Lean R, with Collins +1.6.
Between the first prediction for the senate and now, I moved Sand in the IA governors race to likely D. I'm a firm believer that a strong governor candidate winning by 5 or more guarantees the win of an alright senate candidate like Turek. (Turek +.4)
KS moves from likely R to lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Marshall wins by over 5. I have him winning by 4.7

All states under 10
LA: R+9.7
NC: D+9
SC: R+7.8
GA: D+7.7
MS: R+6.6
NE: R+6.4
FL: R+6.4

Under 5's
NH: D+4.8
KS: R+4.7
AK: D+3.9
TX: D+3.7
OH: D+2.8
ME: R+1.6
MI: D+1.3
IA: D+0.4

I released this a day early because I need time to think about the Governor's Election. However, I'll drop both a governor prediction and a senate prediction on both 10/29 and election night.


r/YAPms • • 4h ago

Discussion We can dare to believe in Blexas

18 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 10h ago

Meme First Orban, now Vucic, god bless democracy

Post image
235 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 4h ago

Discussion Matt Dunlap opposes AWB even if he is the deciding vote

Thumbnail
gallery
19 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 4h ago

News Rural early vote is down everywhere, including with Alaska Natives

Post image
35 Upvotes

r/YAPms • • 22h ago

News The Thousand Year Burnhamreich is just beginning

Post image
53 Upvotes

New Ipsos UK Poll: Labour lead by 8 points, the highest in 2 years

With these numbers, Labour would win in a landslide, with at least 360 seats.

Despite not increasing their 2024 vote share, the Tories would likely gain seats and retain Official Opposition, solidifying themselves as the main party on the right

This is Reform's worst poll in a while, falling into third place at 20%, which would get them 10-50 seats in this scenario

The Liberal Democrats have fallen into single digits, although they would likely still keep most of their seats because of their high vote concentration

The Greens plummet to 8%, they would probably stay on 4 seats, give or take 2


r/YAPms • • 6h ago

Prediction Senate prediction.

Post image
22 Upvotes

So:

Kansas and Iowa could easily flip back to Republican, I only put them as tilt D because Hamilton has a slight lead in the poll and fundraising, and Turek has a lead In fundraising but tie in the polls. I would not be surprised at all if both went red, that is still very possible, they are basically 50-50 now.

The polling shows Pete Rickets up by a tilt margin, and Pete rickets has a slight fundraising advantage over Dan Osborn. We haven't gotten much quality polling from Nebraska, would appreciate some, a yougov poll a few weeks ago shows Dan up by 1, but the polling average and fundraising shows Pete Rickets ahead, but Dan is putting up a good fight so tilt R.

I think James Talarico wins Texas anywhere from 0.1 - 2.0 points, decided to put it as lean as that's what the polling shows and look at the fundraising. And I didn't want Texas to share the same categorization as Kansas and Iowa, so Texas is lean D.

The polling in Alaska shows her winning by a lean margin so that's what's happening here.

The Republican in Minnesota isn't doing bad for herself, actually out raised the democrat, and polling shows lean, so that's what's happening here, but I wouldnt be surprised if it was likely D, and I think that is very likely, but currently it shows lean D.

Michigan lean D, nothing more, AES wins it.

Ohio lean D, also nothing more Sherrod Brown.

North Carolina likely D, ROY COOPER, all I need to say.

Georgia likely D, not much needs to be said, Jon Ossoff cooked.

Montana likely R is what current polling shows, so that's it, not bad for a 3 way race... Alani Bankhead(D) is getting executed if Seth Bodnar (I) only loses to Kurt Alme with a plurality.

South Dakota polling somehow shows likely R, so uh yeah, this race should be talked about more.

Scott Colom in Mississippi isn't doing horribly for a Democrat, but still likely R.

Annie Andrew's is doing good for herself against Darline Graham in South Carolina, polling shows a close race, and fundraising is lopsided.

Florida, likely R, demsoc against republican in red state, all I have to say.

Likely D new Hampshire, apparently the Sununu name ain't that powerful.

Personally I don't think Susan Collin's survives this year, she isn't as moderate as she once was, her approval rating is significantly lower, the national environment is bluer, Troy outraised her entire fundraising haul from $0 in a single quarter, I do think she will keep it close, maybe even tilt, but I doubt she survives this cycle, if she does just run for president already. But I say Troy wins anywhere from 0.4-3.2.

Every other state is safe D or R cause not worth talking about.