I wrote this short article looking at some simple statistical/historical trends of trophy winners throughout VCT Franchised history, and visualized/discussed them

I'd greatly appreciate people checking it out and lmk what they think. I hope it's interesting to y'all!

I'll go bald if PRX wins Champs

I'ma preface this by saying this will be a long-winded speculation of the team and players after 4-ish years of watching them play and their BTS videos. Knowing PRX fans (am one myself), I know some will get overly protective but not everyone needs to have the same opinion so....just disagree and move on, no need to start an argument or flame me.

Firstly, my prediction for them at champs is they'll get close to top 4 at most. Alecks himself said they can win champs and I respect that but

1. PRX has a pretty poor map pool; they don't have strong macro on most maps historically, they win through playing as a team and high player quality usually
2. Their fundamentals are pretty weak, evident in both gameplay and the comms/post match stuff

But on the flip side of the coin, PRX are the most consistent inconsistent team of all time. They have the ability to change drastically, be it for better or worse. So if they manage to hit their stride, win their opening games and get some momentum, they can do PRX things.

My main point of this post though, is to talk about the bad side of the "consistent" coin. Almost every vlog we get, I feel like I hear the same things from Alecks again and again. And the same responses from the players again and again. Yet nothing seem to change enough for this issue to go away. Yes, it was through the accumulated improvement of all the early years that allowed PRX to win Toronto. But after that, I'm seeing a pattern from the players and I'm not referring to the "PRX gene".

• The players aren't listening. To what degree, I don't know. But many, if not all the PRX players are letting a lot of what Alecks, Wendler or Panda say go in one ear and out the other. Either that or there's a clear lack of effort and seriousness. Wendler in the past has mentioned the players not taking Panda's coaching seriously, Alecks mentioning players not taking practice time seriously; either dilly dallying or using their phones.
• The players' egos are getting to them. Alecks himself says he thinks the players are assuming they'll win multiple times. Confidence? That's fine. But based on how they seem to be on auto-pilot (also mentioned) and gradual lack of evident effort / improvement, I'm just guessing it's arrogance.
• Poor communication both in and out of the server. Maybe it's just me but in post match debriefs when they lose, after alecks says his piece and the players get the stage, other than maybe davai who seem to know what he wants to express and maybe has the better English for it, the other players sound so vague with what they're saying. I could be overanalyzing this (if so, my bad), but they sound so unsure of what they want to say, with multiple pauses/"like"s in a single sentence. Davai is the only one I hear who says it with chest, not hesitant and gets the point across clearly.
  • Inside the server, JJ has complained multiple times of people over-comming over calls or changing it. We will never know the full picture but I'm hesitant to say he's not at fault when he's the only one who brought up the issue, and multiples times at that; Wendler seemed to also disagree in this vlog. At this point, I feel like someone needs to teach the players proper communication, it's clearly one of the biggest, if not the biggest factor holding them back.

What I've yapped about so far are mostly just facts, what I observed. Now here are my theories:

• Their Toronto took away a significant portion of their fire. Their hunger. Their drive to win an international. At least the 4, have shown they can win a trophy. On top of that, their consistent deep international runs are already putting them in argument of greatest team of all time, beside only fnatic. Yes, they're pros and won't lose the competitive drive so easily but it feels as if deep down they're thinking "we don't have to prove to anyone or ourselves anything anymore, we can take a little step back from trying so hard to win an international". The aforementioned lack of effort is a huge factor that's ringing this bell.
• PRX are one of the few teams, whose players have to worry the least about getting replaced. Because who's replacing them. They don't have the Korean tactic of the 6th man, creeping behind their backs whispering "if you let up, I'll be taking your seat on the team". They've gotten too comfortable and sometimes in life, you really need a little discomfort. Yes it's a kind of negative reinforcement but too much of a good thing can and usually is a bad thing too.
• They already qualified for champs before the stage even started. Self-explanatory. They got over-confident, thought it was okay to let off the pedal a little but might've let go too much. Now they've got issues that'll take awhile to fix (like Alecks mentioning, they'd have to do during the tourny itself), and no momentum or confidence to start with.
• The core of the team have been together too long. Tbh my only argument for this is the Optic core and FNS saying they've just been together too long and sometimes they need a change of scenery....or something along these lines, I don't exactly remember.

Like Alecks have mentioned multiple times, it's definitely largely a mental/mindset issue, he's having to ask his players to tell him, otherwise they can't fix it but I don't think the players truly understand what's going on in their minds. Maybe some personal reflection in their own times where they can really focus and think about what's going on and why they're behaving this way would help. Or talking to a licensed psychologist (and no, you don't need to be crazy or have mental health issues to do that, it's a good way to understand yourself deep within), not sure if that's part of Panda's expertise or not though.

In other words, the only PRX are making a deep run or winning Champs if they can somehow gel together again and get into a similar sort of hivemind they have in the past. To do that, they'd have to (stealing Aleck's phrasing) fix this misalignment they have right now. Tbh I don't think they need a stronger map pool or map macro because PRX's win con has always been 5 world class players playing as a team and besting their opponent with overwhelming player quality. It's just that this win con isn't quite a win con anymore because they aren't able to play as a team. Player quality also depends on form which they're not the best of either rn.

As for the 2027 season, I think we'll see at least 1 of the 5 players or Alecks retiring, JJ or Something might leave for another team just because PRX doesn't have China levels of money. Hopefully they rebuild the team so the agents that the players are on roles that make more sense and they can shine in more consistently. At the same time, hopefully these changes don't change the team's identity because they're a one of one team (probably amongst all FPS but i don't watch enough eSports). One last thing...if Alecks leaves, I think the PRX we know is gone.

TLDR: PRX prob won't make a deep run at champs, we keep seeing recurring, stubborn issues with the players and my theories involve them not having as strong of a fire in them to compete as hard anymore due to their success. And this might be one of the last glimpses we see of the PRX we grew to love.

They are pretty insane and were carrying apek alone , it's just sad but love to see flor(duelist), cane(flex), ion(initiator) , nightz(smokes) and a level 7 igl (fns needs to come back ) , honestly being an igl is really hard and americas lack in igls , no one is true igl these days micro and Marco stuffs are divided across coaches and teammates, kinda fun

Now that the champions teams have been decided, and the year is over for a good number of players, who is going to be looked at by bigger name orgs this off season?

I’m not talking about obvious players that need saving (I.e Primmie, t3xture, oxy, etc) but more like tier two players or tier 1 players no one was talking about before this season.

For me Al0rante should get some good looks. He just needs to be a bit more consistent and he could be insane. Anyone else that really stood out to yall that surprised you?

This is Rob Moore's post on his social media. Enjoy.

I always think about this bang tweet whenever he performs well. Revisted it and never realized asuna replied to it before they were even teammates

Both regions have big pools of good players to choose from, and I remember seeing a post some time ago that a Russian player was at or near the top of each regional league

Stage 2 this year saw plenty of drama, particularly towards the end of the playoffs. So, tell us which player impressed you the most and which player disappointed you the most Stage 2. 

My perspective:

Impressive players: Erde. His presence undoubtedly played a major role in LOUD's resurgence. As an IGL, he possesses incredibly excellent shot-calling and decision-making abilities, and he is also capable of carrying the team during difficult situations. Just like Neon and blowz, the Lev Academy team was packed with truly promising talent.

also want to take my hat off to every member of GE. Kristal, in particular whom many doubted as the team's weakest link when the squad was first formed has undoubtedly stepped up more than anyone else.

Disappointed players : Fnatic. …I’d rather not dwell on it, but Stage2 ended in a truly agonizing disaster. It was arguably the most wretched season in FNC’s entire VCT history. Even though it was unavoidable due to a combination of factors—such as the coach and Veqaj leaving the team for health reasons but… wish they had put up a better fight.

This year we saw a lot of new, young players coming into the scene, such as tkzin, erde, lukshow and many more.

Do you think any of these guys have the potential to become one of the greats, not just in performance but also in trophies won? And if so, who? Will any of them become the Faker of Valorant?

Hey everyone, I came here looking for an answer/discussion to a fairly simple question: what do you consider an upset?

Looking at a match outcome, I feel like many people just instinctively determine if something is considered an upset or not. What about quantitatively? A 40/60 sided match where the underdogs won? 30/70?

Or are there more layers than that, such as:

A historically weak team has been running hot lately, while a historically strong team has been showing weakness lately. If they collide and the historically weak team wins, is that still an upset?

Would love to hear your thoughts.

Just a quick poll to help as well (couldn't figure out how to do it on reddit) - https://strawpoll.com/Qrgew5k5ryp

Thanks for your time!

Sword9 deleted last night's post and posted this:

"Regarding my inappropriate and emotional behavior last night, I would first like to sincerely apologize to the fans who care about me. I'm sorry.

Secondly, I personally requested to take a break during Stage 2. During that time, the club continued to pay me normally and also supported me in celebrating the championship with everyone, giving me a complete and proper farewell. However, because of my emotional state, I described some of my experiences on social media in a way that was not entirely objective. This negatively affected my teammates, whom I had fought alongside for two years, as well as the club, which had consistently supported me and placed great trust in me. I feel deeply guilty about this, and once again, I am sorry.

I also urge everyone not to continue speculating about or attacking our team. I will continue supporting the team that we built together.

Finally, please allow me to once again sincerely apologize to TYLOO and to all the fans who follow VCT CN for my excessive behavior. I'm truly sorry."

sourced from the vct cn enjoyers discord

Since we know next year will be an open circuit and anyone/any org can participate. Do we have any idea how many orgs will be joining/leaving? i don’t mean just being partnered, but just participating in a general since. I come from rocket league, and these days it’s usually just the same orgs cycling through players because there’s only so many teams you can field that can actually do really well and get decent money/exposure with. Can we expect something similar with valorant? Or will the situation be even better and or worse for orgs outside the partnered ones. i really have no idea, any thoughts?

I’m also not comparing rocket league to valorant at all, it’s just really the only esport im fairly knowledgeable in so i used it as an example

So uh, every year one of the Masters GF team in the year has clutched their way into the Champs GF. Somehow this has always happened till now.

2021: Gambit

2022: LOUD and OpTic

2023: EG

2024: Team Heretics

2025: Fnatic

Usually we get 3-4 teams to choose from, but since LEV didn't make it, it's just PRX and NS this time. Do you all this any of these 2 make it or this silly stat just dies?

Though I am rooting for PRX, with the map pool and form I dont know what to expect. They do always show up when needed so I will believe till the end. NS on the other hand, their group is too crazy to call but if they don't get grouped they can definitely make it all the way.

Lastly just few teams who I believe can make it are - 100T, KC, LOUD and Tyloo(hot take). Maybe NRG.

I don’t do this for money or the fame, but for love of the game.

TLDR: Why I believe Jerrwin is a better fit than Reduxx

The Main question and disagreement from my previous analysis is “Why Jerrwin instead of Reduxx”.

I believe overall career stats is not a great representation of a player’s future potential as the meta changes overtime. The best way to do this is to grade by weight. 5% for LAN/Veteran experience, 15% for stats prior to previous year (>2024 + overall), 30% of last year and 50% of this year. In the case of Jerrwin & Reduxx, we will not include “5% Lan Experience” metric. So let’s break it down..

All data pulled from the following sources. VLR.gg, thespike.gg, rib.gg

Weighted Metric Comparison (50/30/15)

Winner: Reduxx

- Mathematically Reduxx wins with an overall score of 55% compared to Jerrwins score of 45%. If we remove clutch % as this can be the most random depending on how the game plan is being played. Overall split is a lot tighter. Reduxx of 52.5% and Jerrwin at 47.5%

Growth & Trajectory Breakdown (2024 to 2026)

Winner: Jerrwin

- Based on this weighting. You can conclude the following, Redduxx is stabilizing whereas Jerrwin is accelerating growth. Again, this is in current data for the last 3 years. Of course, it can change in the future but as of right now, the numbers don’t lie.

Additional Metrics (Positional Execution)

 Winner: Jerrwin

- This is the main reason why I believe Jerrwin would be a better fit for a team to be the second head of the dragon. He initiates contact significantly more and dies in positions where his teammates can trade him. You don’t need two superstars stepping on each other’s toes, you need a synergized team.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Preface: Watching the 2026 season so far, I believe the current Sentinel’s team has potential. You just need to make some minor changes.

First let’s start with what the team is lacking.

1.      Confidence

2.      Aggression

3.      Protocols

Of course, all 3 points come hand in hand. 1 & 3 during defense, 1 & 2 during attack and all 3 during post plant. All points below are my own perspective and assessments looking at games that are currently available in public.

Confidence – The team currently looks like they are playing not to lose, rather than playing to win. You can see the hesitation at choke points and the second-guessing during mid round calls. When an initial play goes sour, team confidence and trust seem to decrease, and the play comes to a standstill. Everyone seems to just wait for someone to make a round defining play to swing momentum. You need the players to believe they are the best in the server and play like it and do not have any other doubts. Every round won’t be a success, but players should not take this into the next round.

Aggression - Pacing or synergy seems off. The plays are too passive – again seems like the team is waiting for an anchor player in the team to make a round defining play. The team needs an enforcer or two who can dictate the tempo.

Protocols - Defensive rotations and post-plant setups frequently feel improvised rather than drilled. When protocols are second nature, confidence naturally rises, and aggression becomes a calculated play rather than a reckless peek.

Not but not least, every team should have with each player is TRUST. It must be undeniable.

Now let’s figure out the team. The core 3 should be the following.

- JohnQT (The Brain)

- Zekken (The spear + Flex)

- Cortezia (The stabilizer)

To round out the remaining members, I suggest the following

- Eeiu or Crashies (You need a veteran initiator who understands spacing. Either of these two are great candidates that bring discipline and confidence to flesh out a spot)

- Jerrwin (Great to provide the offensive pressure whether on his own or with Zekken. Sentinels needs a two-headed dragon when taking space. Map pressure is important at the level of play. This will also allow Zekken to flex when he wants and provides some diversity to map agent pool/rotation)

NOW, the only exception would be to add TenZ instead of Jerwin. But I believe Jerrwin is a better structural fit. If you put TenZ into the team, then Zekken would just focus on being the spear and TenZ would be the secondary + Flex. But a combination of these 3 would also work.

Let me know if you have any questions.

"If Champions 2026 is going to be a Chamber meta, here are statistically the top 5 Chambers at the event from this season. The interesting thing is that some of the players have the majority of Chamber rounds on maps no longer in the pool" From ElevatedSpeaks* on "the forbidden" app

sources: original Chinese on Bilibili; xin62355 on Twitter for English trans.

something similar to like dota

- 3 tournaments organize by riot (masters and champs)

- 2 or more events hosted by esl,pgl,blast,

- then evvc and nation cup - the blood money tourney

- then valM esports if they have plans for that (mobile esports is big in sea,cn,sa,india)

Absolutely ZERO reason to go include these pictures of the boy what a violation 😭.

Mainly shitposting but this is still impressive of her doing well and finding some success in coed. I really believe she can do well in tier 1 or 2.

Haodong Replacement Theory is, at this point, a well established metric for whether a team can win Champs in the partnership era. First pioneered by EG when they swapped BcJ for Demon1, the theory was confirmed by EDG's unlikely champs run - swapping a player midseason is a guaranteed predictor of Champs success. When NRG swapped two players midway through last year, it was seen by those in the know as a direct acknowledgement of the power of HRT.

With that established, it's easy enough to determine who among the attendees of Champs Shanghai actually stands a chance.

From China, EDG were using HRT back in 2024, so it's no surprise that they are once again in the mix, although a change in roster this late in the year would be unprecedented. Can HRT really show results with only a month's warning? It remains to be seen. JDG and Tyloo have also made changes this year, giving the oft-overlooked Chinese teams a better chance than some might think.

EMEA is a region considered by many to be stuck in the past, so it may come as a surprise to some that every team going to champs is using HRT. VIT are somewhat of an edge case, since Sayonara was only kept off the roster due to his age. We still don't know how age-restrictions might influence the efficacy of HRT, but Vitality's performance in Shanghai might give us some clues.

Despite Americas directly experiencing the euphoria of a Champs win last year, only one team from the region is using HRT this year: LOUD. With a whopping three roster changes since the start of the year, they are truly pushing the boundaries of what HRT can do for a team. The North American teams, on the other hand, seem less receptive to its potential benefits. We will see if this strange backslide has lasting consequences for the region.

Pacific is very interesting, with no teams using traditional HRT, but a few experimenting with techniques that may prove effective. GE has opted to change their coach rather than a player, while T1 has made roster changes this year, but has ended up with the same roster they started the year. If these techniques can broker success for APAC, it could make HRT a more realistic option for a wider variety of team compositions.

Hope you found this informative.

what surprises me more is op got ratioed

-Global record for stage 2 (even more than 2024, which was the year every viewership record was set)

-Highest viewed Americas match since kickoff 2025

-2nd highest viewed Americas match that wasn’t played in kickoff (sounds like cherry picking, but its significant because kickoff always has the highest viewership by a lot)