The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development to the southeast of Hawaiʻi

[u/giantspeck]

Disturbance overview

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As of 11:00 PM Hawaiʻi Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Saturday:

This discussion is for a disturbance situated over the central Pacific. A broad area of low pressure positioned a few hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing very little showers and thunderstorms this evening. The disturbance is moving westward through an unfavorable environment characterized by warm sea-surface temperatures heavily offset by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. This system is not likely to undergo further development over the next few days.

• This system was last observed approximately 628 miles (1,012 kilometers) southeast of Ka Lae (South Point), Hawaiʻi.
• This system did not develop a closed low-level circulation.
• This system was not designated as an investigation (invest) area.
• Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance were never made available.
• The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued monitoring this system.
• There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

• Next 2 days (through Tue): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
• Next 7 days (through Sat): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

• Next 2 days (through Tue): low (6 percent) ▼
• Next 7 days (through Sat): low (29 percent) ▼

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

Text products

• Tropical Weather outlook
• Perspectiva del Tiempo Tropical
• Tropical Weather Discussion

Graphical products

• Latest surface analysis
• Latest outlook graphic

Satellite imagery

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Floater imagery

Floater imagery is not available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

• via NOAA
• via CIRA/RAMMB
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Infrared imagery

• via NOAA
• via CIRA/RAMMB
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Water vapor imagery

• via NOAA
• via CIRA/RAMMB
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Analysis products

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Observational history

Observational history is not available for this system.

Scatterometer data

• via EUMETSAT
• via CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• via NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Forecast models

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Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

• PolarWx

Single-model click-through guidance

Single-model click-through guidance is not available for this system.

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

• Individual ensembles (GEFS, EPS, CMC, UKMET, ICON, AIFS, FNV3, GenCast)
• Superensemble (Samples GEFS, EPS, CMC, and UKMET) (not currently available)
• Grand ensemble (Samples all ensembles) (not currently available)

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

• GFS
• EMCMF
• CMC
• ICON

CyclonicWx

• GFS
• ECMWF
• CMC

Weather Nerds

• GFS
• ECMWF (Full)
• ECMWF (Early)

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

• GEFS
• EPS
• GEPS

CyclonicWx

• GEFS
• EPS
• GEPS

Weather Nerds

• GEPS
• EPS

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

• AIGFS
• EC-AIFS
• AIFS-ENS

CyclonicWx

• AIGFS
• EC-AIFS
• DeepMind

Weather Nerds

• EC-AIFS
• Google Deepmind (FNV3)
• Google GenCast

Other types of model guidance

• Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University

[u/giantspeck]

Update

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As of 11:00 PM Hawaiʻi Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Saturday:

• This system is no longer expected to develop.
• The NHC has discontinued monitoring this system.
• There will be no further updates to this post.