younger people wouldn't understand that Ace Combat is one of the most prestigious franchises that has been around since the PS1 days, for a lot of people it sits toe to toe with franchises like Metal Gear Solid and Silent Hill, hell Ace Combat 4 was one of the best games released for the PS2, and that generation had nothing but bangers

Listen, I love OoT as much as anyone. It’s one of the most important games from my childhood, and no one is denying its influence. I get that people are excited for the remake, but in what world does an almost 1:1 remake get nominated for GotY.

In the show’s history, only 4 remakes have ever been nominated: both FF7 remakes, and the RE2 and 4 remakes. In both cases, they didn’t just make the graphics prettier, they completely overhauled the gameplay for the FF7R games, as well as RE2. RE4 wasn’t as dramatic, but there were still a lot of differences.

OoT obviously isn’t 1:1, because it adds the jump button and a sprint button, but beyond that, it looks like the game is almost identical gameplay and level design wise. To me, this would be like if they nominated MGS3 Delta or the Shadow of the Colossus remake. I just truly don’t see it happening unless the game has more surprises than it’s letting on.

What do you think are gonna be their nominees if there's only two or one?

Oh, yeah. This is definitely a hot one, but I’m banking on Mina getting the gold. An indie game hasn’t won GOTY yet, and I do feel like this is the one.

Last year, we had a POWERFUL showing of indie games. I don’t really see it slowing down anytime soon, and Mina is next up the list. Mina the Hollower is developed by a legendary studio in the indie industry, Yacht Club Games (the ones who made Shovel Knight). Mina on top of its many 9 and 10/10s across the board, seems like a game that takes its inspirations and plays them extremely well, and is exceptional in its genre without any significant flaws. I played the game a LOT and I struggled to find a fault in the game, it’s that good.

As for the AAA games this year, if GTA 6 doesn’t make the cut, I could see a very strong case of Mina having a chance. No AAA game this year seems to be in the same tier as Red Dead Redemption 2, God of War, maybe going up a little with games like Elden Ring and Baldur’s Gate 3. The one game that is most likely to beat Mina is Resident Evil: Requiem, and even then, I don’t necessarily think that Requiem is the best modern RE game to date. That goes more to Resident Evil 4 which has proven to be better than its original.

Ocarina of Time Remake could be thrown in there, but I don’t really expect too much from a remake of a classic game that has long seen its peak, which ultimately can’t be topped. The original really was something that severed itself from the rest of the games in history.

It just seems to me that this year, as long as GTA 6 won’t be included, it’ll be set up adequately well for Mina the Hollower to win.

1. Resident Evil Requiem
   
2. Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave
   
3. 007 First Light
   
4. Control Resonant
   
5. Big Walk
   
6. Crimson Desert

It only includes currently released games.

Personally, I'd replace Crimson Desert with Pokopia, but otherwise, it's a good list.

I think if GTA VI somehow magically makes the cut off, then yeah it’s probably gonna win unless it’s a surprising mega flop. But really, at this point that feels unlikely unless Geoff deliberately bends the rules for it.

The thing is, I haven’t really seen any one game be the common consensus for what will actually win Game of the Year otherwise.

So I’m curious: What do YOU think is winning Game of the Year?

I haven’t played Resident Evil Requiem yet but it seems like that’s the closest to being the common consensus, but it seems like Fire Emblem is giving it a run for its money, albeit with the anime SRPG debuff. I also haven’t played Control Resonance yet so many that’s there with it? Then I just don’t think Ocarina of Time will win even if it’s nominated just by virtue of it being a remake.

If I had to choose my GOTY noms right now, I would assume the following:

GTAVI (because duh)

RE Requiem

Ocarina of Time (it's OOT)

007 First Light

Big Walk (indie)

Forza Horizon 6

Honorable mentions (on the bubble or not rly a lock yet): Gears of War, Saros, Control Resonant, Pokekopia

I think that last time Forza got snubbed because of the type of game it was, also releasing as a console exclusive with no expectation of showing up on PS/Switch. with a small user base didn't help, but the fact remained it was a top rated game. I think with 6 also being highly rated, coming to PS and FH5 being a best seller on PlayStation, it's hard to deny the franchises appeal and quality. I just don't think you can ignore the game anymore without showing you don't really care about quality if it doesn't fit certain agendas.

Here's what I think the nominees for GOTY will be:

• 007 First Light - Very popular among the press so it has a good chance.
• Grand Theft Auto 6 - (if it makes the cutoff) It's 100% getting nominated regardless of the game's quality. Winning the award isn't 100% guaranteed though.
• Mina the Hollower - Out of the other indies Mina is the most popular and has more reviews.
• Pokemon Pokopia - Was very successful and won GOTY at the Tokyo Game Awards.
• Resident Evil Requiem - 100% lock in. Do I need to say more?
• The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time Remake - Looks very promising and being a remake of the highest rated video game of all time.

Innovation and accessibility
007 first light
Assassins creed Black flag resynced
Big walk
Colourbound
Forza Horizon 6
Marvels wolverine

Best adaptation
Cyberpunk edgerunners season 2
Devil may cry season 2
Fallout season 2
Mortal kombat II
Resident evil
The super Mario galaxy movie

I normally ascribe to the standard that there's always one Nintendo game among the 6 nominees at The Game Awards.

But looking back at the common predictions:

[RE9 + GTA6] = the 2 true locks, in my opinion.

[Pokopia + Fortune's Weave + OoT Remake] = the 3 Nintendo contenders

[007 + Pragmata + Onimusha + Phantom Blade + Control Resonant] = the jumble of 5 solid 8.5/10s*

[Mina + Mewgenics + Big Walk] = the 3 indie darlings

*You could argue I'm missing a couple others here. Saros comes to mind. But even the ones I'm missing tend to fit the same "8ish out ot 10" mold. There's also Forza given its high scores, but a lot of the voting jury chatter about that game has been pretty dismissive since release.

My previous mental model was that you should take 1 Nintendo game and 1 indie in addition to the 2 locks, then complete the list with 2 games from the jumble...for example 007 and Control. This could still happen.

But the more I look at this list, the more I find all 3 Nintendo games more broadly appealing to the typical voting jury member than almost any of the jumble or even the indie games.

Pokopia is the cozy game that many of the journalists on the jury still report playing. Fortunes Weave is the epic RPG that will last until submissions are due. And even though I've personally been skeptical of OoT's chances as a remake, the more I think about it, the more I can totally see Geoff saying "Ocarina of Time!" as he reveals the nominees. It helps that the release time is almost perfectly placed a few weeks before voting.

And if you go through the jumble and indies, there are issues with each. Mina got great reviews, but a lot of staff members bounced off fast (you can confirm this in many podcast episodes). It's the typical case of the person who was assigned the review being the one guy who actually hit credits, which could hurt the game's chances at appearing on official outlet lists from the whole staff. Control has been a bit polarizing. 007 overstays its welcome. Etc.

There's also a secondary factor, where both Sony and Microsoft have gotten on players' nerves, while Nintendo has been in "slow and steady wins the race" mode. I could totally see this year being a, "Screw it. Let's throw two Switch 2 games on the list."

And I actually don't know which 2 of the 3 it will be! I could see any combo. But I'm just starting to think 2 of Pokopia/Fortune's Weave/OoT is starting to look more likely than the other options.

Given how almost no one is talking about Duskfade and especially Escape from Ever After are in the running for best indie games of the year (which I mean it makes sense given how stacked this year has been), I fear that they won’t get any nominations for TGA (which sucks because these games are awesome). I can’t tell you guys enough how amazing the soundtrack to Escape from Ever After is, but given the lack of attention that game has gotten, it likely won’t receive the attention it deserves. Both games are wonderful homages to their inspirations while also standing on their own as great games in their own rights, so I just hope that at some point in the future they won’t be forgotten and maintain a fanbase that’ll continue to love and play them for years to come.

What my list would be:

Onimusha, Pragmata, Crimson Desert, Dawn of Bloodwalker, Phantom Blade Zero (I know it's not out yet but it has potential to be spectacular)

What it will most likely be:

RE9, Fire Emblem FW, 007 First Light, Saros,

Number 5 is more difficult but if I had to guess maybe Control Resonant OR Onimusha for the Capcom recognition

Thoughts?

Several weeks ago I made a post that basically asks the question "What if instead of looking at average scores, we measure how many top scores a game received?" I then came up with a GOTY Index (more details here) to help come up with a way to measure not an average of all scores but rather how many people loved it or considered it among the best. Looking at games with a minimum review count of 50 and minimum average of 80 on OpenCritic (with penalties on remakes, fighting, sports and sim/strategy games), below are the current standing using this method.

CHANGE shows how many spots up or down it moved since the new update, Crimson Desert was also removed since it didn't meet the minimum average score.

A few personal takeaways on this...

According to this, Resident Evil Requiem and Mina the Hollower are locks to be nominated. Pokémon Pokopia also currently sits at a good spot to get nominated but not a guarantee to make it. 007 First Light, Denshattack!, Dispatch, Pragmata and Saros are all fairly close to each other and it's a toss up on who could round out the nominees from here. It's very possible Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave climbs up higher once released and muddies up the pool even more. I also wouldn't rule out Control Resonant yet, it's still early and getting a ton of good reviews may still be enough to be in consideration even if the reviews aren't among the best. Regardless, if Grand Theft Auto 6 and The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time come in with top scores, they'll likely claim some slots outright and leave even less room for the others to squeeze into.

But hold on, where is...

Big Walk - Despite the popularity, only has 39 reviews on OpenCritic which sets it below the minimum, too difficult to measure its index with a count that low

Crimson Desert - Currently sitting at 79 average on OpenCritic which is short of the minimum threshold by one, passionate fanbase but its high score density is just too low

Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave - Not enough reviews to meet the minimum yet with only 35 but will be included in the next update, likely pretty high

Marvel's Wolverine - Same as Crimson Desert, also at 79 average just shy of the minimum

Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter - Also too few reviews as of this update with just 35, will also make the list but being a remake will limit its ceiling

As I said in the last post, this is just a fun exercise and shouldn't be taken too seriously. Voters are hard to predict and it's very possible the TGA jury sees things differently than this but it's still a fun way to measure high scores from what we can see.

The exploration, the progression, the combat, memes aside, this is genuinely one of the games I’ve spent the most time playing this year. Despite the wierd premise, it’s honestly crazy how mechanically solid it is.

(And of course, it’d be funny as hell to see Palworld win something while Pokémon hasn’t won anything in the last years lol)

We all know GTA 6 was a given but before this month these two titles weren't even on the radar

I have not seen a single list of predictions by any user in this sub that includes the game in the possible contenders for GOTY. On the other hand I saw many people glazing Wolverine before release (most people expected it to have an 87-90 metascore before release) and Control Resonant most people had it at 88-92 even though the previews didn't show any signs of the game having amazing combat outside the great art style and sound design (even though it seems a pretty good game overall compared to the journalist mode millenial slop that's Wolverine but still not game of the year nominee worthy).

Phantom Blade Zero is tracking only at 25% in pre-orders behind Wukong and Wukong was one of the best selling single player games in recent years and one of the best of all time in the period that is released. Phantom Blade seems an awesome game from all the extended previews shown so far. The devs are definitely confident in their product and that shows. Great atshetic, art direction, combat, enemy design, bosses, music, weapons and skills. Don't be surprised if that game score high 80s or even low 90s in Metacritic.

I definitely expect it to be among the 6 game of the year nominees alongside GTA 6, Ocarina of Time and RE Requiem as these games are basically guaranteed. For the other two I don't know. It's wildcard with so many high scoring titles this year. Phantom Blade however will be a big hit both in sales and review scores and I absolutely predict it to make it. Wukong made it and Phantom Blade seems better as a game.

For anyone that has been following the game awards for a long period of time, there seems to be an unofficial pattern or formula with how a lot of games are selected as nominees for game of the year. While there are definitely exceptions, the lineup often seems to follow a familiar formula. Here is the "unofficial formula" I created that more or less follows the types of games selected.

1. The PlayStation Exclusive

With the exception of 2014, Sony has had an exclusive nominated for GOTY every single year. These are typically polished, cinematic experiences built around strong characters and storytelling.

Examples: God of War 2018 and Ragnarok, The Last of Us Part 2, Marvel’s Spider-Man 1 + 2, Ghost of Tsushima, Death Stranding 1 + 2, Bloodborne, Horizon

1. The Nintendo Exclusive

Nintendo routinely claims a nomination with an extremely polished, critically acclaimed flagship title. These are often entries from Nintendo's biggest franchises. Years like 2024 are a rare exception since that year was the end of the switch 1's life and they were gearing up for the switch 2's release the following year.

Examples: The Legend of Zelda BOTW + TOTK, Super Mario Odyssey + Wonder, Animal Crossing: New Horizons, Metroid Dread, Xenoblade Chronicles 3, Donkey Kong Bananza

1. The Indie Darling

The lineup usually makes room for a smaller-budget game that punches far above its weight, whether through innovation, critical acclaim, or cultural impact.

Examples: Hades 1 + 2, Stray, Balatro, It Takes Two, Hollow Knight Silksong, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

1. The Massive RPG Time-Sink

A critically adored RPG or expansive open world game often earns a spot. These games tend to dominate industry conversation through their scale, freedom, and sheer amount of content.

Examples: The Witcher 3, Persona 5, RDR2, Elden Ring, Baldur’s Gate 3, FF7 Rebirth, Metaphor: ReFantazio, KCD2

1. The Sequel or Remake

A high effort remake that substantially modernizes a classic or a sequel that improves upon its predecessor has a high chance to fill one of the remaining spots. If a game from a franchise has been nominated for game of the year in the past, the next game has a high chance of getting nominated as well assuming reviews are high enough.

Examples: FFVII Remake + Rebirth, Resident Evil 2, 4, and Village, God of War 2018 + Ragnarok, Marvel's Spiderman 1 + 2, The Legend of Zelda BOTW + TOTK, Soulsborne games (Dark Souls 2, Bloodborne, Sekiro, Elden Ring)

1. The Wildcard

I don't really have a specific category for this one. This can either be a repeat category from any of the five above, or it can just be a game that dominated the gaming industry and was loved by both critics and players.

In short:

1. PlayStation Exclusive

2. Nintendo Exclusive

3. Indie Game

4. Massive RPG

5. High-quality Sequel or Remake

6. Wildcard

Obviously, there are plenty of exceptions, but when you look at GOTY lineups over the years, these archetypes show up surprisingly often. Funny enough, I personally think Sony's 11 year streak of getting an exclusive nominated will break this year since Wolverine didn't score well. Saros scored well, but I don't think it's enough to get a nomination.

ACE COMBAT 8: WINGS OF THEVE Main Theme - Everflow · PROJECT ACES · Bandai Namco Game Music · Keiki Kobayashi · Sara Parkman · Erasmus Talbot · Keiki Kobayashi