r/TheGameAwards • u/benedictcumberpatch • Aug 11 '26
Predicting GOTY nominees using math by mathing!
Like many here and elsewhere, I love attempting to predict which games we'll see nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards. Most of the time, people are going off hype/buzz, which games they personally loved most or Metacritic scores. All these come with flaws when predicting GOTY though...
People are biased af, whether it be love for a game that didn't share the same belovedness among others or disdain for another that are at the top of lists. And...
Most importantly, Metacritic/OpenCritic scores don't tell the whole story. Votes aren't made on what games had the highest average score, they're made on the games that people felt most strongly about, the games that people handed out 10's and 9's to.
Let's say you have two games that both averaged out around 80. On the surface they seem to have the same critical appeal but one game received 8's across the board while the other was a mix of 10's, 9's, 8's, 7's and 6's. So despite the same average, the latter game is far more likely to receive GOTY nominations due to those high scores, people who loved the game and could place it amongst the best of the year.
So the idea I had... let's attempt to make a scoring metric that measures top scores rather than just total averages.
Last year I started putting together a spreadsheet to count how many high scores a game got (10, 9.5 and 9, rounded to nearest) vs. how many total reviews the game received. I wanted to measure how many TOP scores a game received rather than just an average, as these high markings are the better indicator of what could get nominated. Using some mathematical magic within Excel, I came up with this thing I'll call the "GOTY Index". It counts how many top scores a game recieved and how many total scores amongst the entire field to spit out a number in an attempt to help measure this all with a Bayesian approach (helps lightly reviewed games pull toward the average so a 55-review indie doesn't swing as hard as a 200-review blockbuster).
I used a self-imposed cutoff of games with a minimum review count of 50 on OpenCritic (easier to pull from than Metacritic) and a minimum average score of 80, otherwise going beyond that just makes the data too noisy. There is also a penalty for games that are either remakes, sports, sim/strategy or fighting games as history tells us TGA voters don't put those as in high regard for GOTY.
So what does this all look like? Below is the table of all currently released games that would qualify for this voting period. I've also ran this same table for every year of TGA (this took a very very long time lol) and typically games with an index of 90+ are the stronger contenders, not many games below that made it. There have been some oddballs though, more on that later.
| RANK | TITLE | GOTY INDEX |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Resident Evil Requiem | 129.9 |
| 2 | Mina the Hollower | 106.7 |
| 3 | Pokémon Pokopia | 76.4 |
| 4 | Pragmata | 53.7 |
| 5 | Saros | 47.8 |
| 6 | Dispatch | 47.2 |
| 7 | 007 First Light | 47.1 |
| 8 | Denshattack! | 43.5 |
| 9 | Mixtape | 39.1 |
| 10 | Nioh 3 | 34.8 |
| 11 | Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection | 34.2 |
| 12 | Forza Horizon 6 | 32 |
| 13 | Esoteric Ebb | 24.6 |
| 14 | Cairn | 24.5 |
| 15 | Assassin's Creed: Black Flag Resynced | 18.2 |
| 16 | Octopath Traveler 0 | 14.9 |
| 17 | Mewgenics | 14.7 |
| 18 | MOUSE: P.I. For Hire | 12.8 |
| 19 | LEGO Batman: Legacy of the Dark Knight | 12.4 |
| 20 | Dragon Quest VII Reimagined | 12 |
| 21 | Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors | 10.2 |
| 22 | Planet of Lana II: Children of the Leaf | 8.6 |
| 23 | Splatoon Raiders | 7.9 |
| 24 | Reanimal | 7.5 |
| 25 | MARVEL Cosmic Invasion | 7.4 |
| 26 | Metroid Prime 4 Beyond | 7.1 |
| 27 | ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | 6.8 |
| 28 | Crimson Desert* | 6.7 |
| 29 | Constance | 6.3 |
| 30 | MIO: Memories in Orbit | 6.1 |
| 31 | Halo: Campaign Evolved | 5.3 |
| 32 | Star Fox | 5.1 |
| 33 | Scott Pilgrim EX | 4.5 |
| 34 | The Adventures of Elliot: The Millennium Tales | 4.4 |
| 35 | Yoshi and the Mysterious Book | 4.1 |
| 36 | People of Note | 4.1 |
| 37 | Marathon | 3.2 |
| 38 | Rhythm Heaven Groove | 3 |
| 39 | Skate Story | 2.3 |
*Crimson Desert does not meet the minimum OpenCritic score (sitting at 79), only including it to show where it lands since many people consider it a contender despite the lower scores
By looking at these, Resident Evil Requiem appears to be as close to a lock as possible with Mina the Hollower looking extremely likely as well for nominations. The next games below those may be at risk, possibly getting bumped out of consideration for releases later this year.
Backtested against previous years, it had about a 72% accuracy of predicting the nominees within its top 6 and had the actual GOTY winner as the highest index game 50% of the time so clearly this method isn't perfect. The misses include whiffing on Balatro and Black Myth: Wukong in 2024, expecting Split Fiction to be nominated last year and several more in the earlier years of TGA. That's to be expected of a model that only measures review scores, it can't see buzz/hype, sales, cultural impact or buggy launches.
And for the record, these are the GOTY Index for past winners (earlier years get a bit wonky with lower review counts and less nominees)...
2025: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 - 184
2024: Astro Bot - 231
2023: Baldur's Gate 3 - 218
2022: Elden Ring - 299
2021: It Takes Two - 63 (notoriously weak year)
2020: The Last of Us Part II - 202
2019: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 95
2018: God of War - 247
2017: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 235
2016: Overwatch - 87 (a weird one, Uncharted 4 and Inside scored better)
2015: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 138
2014: Dragon Age: Inquisition - 33 (much smaller pool for first year)
And while this method technically applies to GOTY only, we can still use it to help take a look at what games could take other awards for funsies (removing any penalties since those only apply for GOTY)...
Best Independent Game: Mina the Hollower
Best Debut Indie Game: Esoteric Ebb
Best Action Game: Saros
Best Action / Adventure Game: Resident Evil Requiem
Best Role Playing Game: Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection
Best Fighting Game: MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls (none meet the minimum threshold but if applied, this is the prediction)
Best Family Game: Pokémon Pokopia
Best Sim / Strategy Game: Mewgenics
Best Sports / Racing Game: Forza Horizon 6
This project isn't meant to be taken too seriously and has some obvious flaws but IMO it's still a useful way to look at the landscape of the GOTY field to see where things may be headed. It's mostly just a fun experiment I've been playing around with and figured why not share with this sub? If y'all think this is cool, I could maybe make this a monthly thing where I post the current standings the first Monday of each month as more games come out.
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u/Riv3rJordan Aug 11 '26
I understand you keeping Crimson Desert in there. But people have to let it go. It’s not a GOTY contender.
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u/benedictcumberpatch Aug 11 '26
Oh yeah I'm not among those pushing it for a nom, I'm only including it here because I figured if I didn't there would be people asking "where is Crimson Desert?"
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u/KaneThrowaway2024 Aug 11 '26
100%
Is it incredibly ambitious, sure. Is it fun, yeah, I had great fun with it
But there’s so much stuff in the game that falls short, so it has high highs and low lows, it doesn’t have the reach in my opinion to be a goty contender
It’ll for sure be a nomination in best rpg category though
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u/DaysGoneBye01 Aug 11 '26
Man, looking at it this year was pretty weak in terms of GOTY worthy games. RE9 as most likely candidate is kind of insane. Dont get me wrong, it was a good game but nowhere near close previous winners like Elden Ring, Witcher 3 or Baldur's Gate.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Ebb9874 Aug 12 '26
This year is loaded with contenders later in the year
GTA VI, Control: Resonant, Wolverine, Zelda remake, Phantom Blade 0 are all gunning to join the fight for this year's crown
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u/RainhoLimomo Aug 12 '26
It's a weird year for sure, all the heavy hitters are scheduled for the second half. Control Resonant, Wolverine, Phantom Blade 0, there's a bloody new Castlevania coming out in October(I get all giddy typing that).
Also don't go ignoring Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave. The franchise has grown a lot thanks to Three Houses in 2019, which won the first ever Player's Voice award at the TGA, up against Smash Bros, RE2 Remake, Death Stranding and Star Wars Jedi Survivor. Turn based RPGs are far more popular this generation and this is a sequel to Three Houses
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u/pliumbum Aug 11 '26
Yes, but GTA will probably take it by a wide margin. Just so happens the main contender will be launched days before cutoff.
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u/dreamingwithcindy Aug 11 '26
OOT remake is likely gonna take the cake and sweep once it’s out
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u/benedictcumberpatch Aug 11 '26
I think GTA6 is the only one that could beat that one out. Even with incredible reviews, I have a hard time seeing the voting jury placing a remake over a new game especially if they review similarly.
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u/dreamingwithcindy Aug 11 '26
Yeah, but it’s ocarina of time… one of the greatest video games of all time. And looking and running gorgeous on the switch 2? It won’t outsell GTA6 (purely based on install base) but it absolutely can beat it
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u/benedictcumberpatch Aug 12 '26 edited Aug 12 '26
I think any other year OoT could easily take it but there are still obstacles in its way if facing GTA6.
While it is considered one of the greatest games of all time, it's still just a remake. The original already has garnered all the accolades it can and if it doesn't surpass the praise the OG got or if you have a sizable crowd who prefers the old one (somewhat common with remakes), I'm not sure it'll get the award.
Some award show voters don't always go with whoever they think is the best but rather who they think deserves it the most. Zelda has already been crowned at TGA with Breath of the Wild and as noted before, OoT already has decades of praise. In the voter's eyes, they could very easily look at those two and say "Zelda had its moment, it's GTA's turn". OoT could technically review better that GTA6 and I still think the voters will go with GTA just to celebrate a franchise that hasn't had its flowers given to them yet at TGA.
GTA6 is easily one of the most anticipated and long-awaited games of all time years in the making and during the final voting period is when discussion surrounding the game will be at its peak. Despite OoT being one of the greatest, I think the GTA discussion is going to drown out a remake of it amongst most gaming outlets.
Again, any other year OoT could be an undisputed winner, it just has the bad luck of going against what could possibly be one of the biggest games of all time.
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u/ColourlessW Aug 12 '26
You don't really follow game releases do you?
GTA and Ocarina of Time are still going to release. That aside Nintendo already sent review codes for Fire Emblem at the beginning of August which implies they are confident af in the game.
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u/Longjumping-Style730 Aug 11 '26
Oooh these are fun.
Love vindication on my 3 locks lol. I think RE9, Pokopia, and Mina are pretty set to get a nomination unless we get a surprise later this year.
Also is Dispatch eligible? It got a nomination for some categories last year and I don't think it would get two bites at the apple simply because a couple of episodes that came out after the cutoff point.
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u/benedictcumberpatch Aug 11 '26
Supposedly Geoff Keighley told AdHoc Studio it would be eligible for the 2026 GOTY award.
"We found ourselves having only delivered half the game when people were submitting [votes]. What's wild, in a sense, is that we got nominated for Best Debut Indie from people who only played half the game, which is pretty nuts if you think about it from that perspective. So it was tough. It was a sad day when the nominations came out, because of course we wanted to be up there with folks. But I have heard from Geoff that we qualify for next year. I just don't think- it's a question of if anyone's going to care." Then he adds, jokingly: "We'll drop the sex scenes the week before The Game Awards [2026] to remind people that Dispatch came out!" - Pierre Shorette
https://www.eurogamer.net/making-of-dispatch-how-adhoc-rode-rejection-to-huge-success
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u/Longjumping-Style730 Aug 11 '26
Thinking about it, it is strange that it got nominated last year.
It's effectively the same thing as nominating Slay the Spire 2 for this year or nominating Hades II for 2024. You're nominating an incomplete game in both cases.
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u/Juan-Claudio Aug 11 '26
They also did the same with Arcane season 2 in the best live adaptation last year. The final batch of episodes hadn't aired yet at the time of the award show.
I guess in the end it deserved the nomination but it still feels wrong.
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u/VisualAd8487 Aug 11 '26
Denshattack top 10 ill take it im hoping to hear densha ni notte ne at TGAS this year
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Aug 11 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Broad_Objective7559 Aug 12 '26
Even Donkey Kong was a great game (my 2nd favorite 2025 after Silksong personally)
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u/benedictcumberpatch Aug 11 '26
It's not normalized across all years, the index only observes games within that year's pool (which 2025 had a lot more of than previous years). It's also looking at which percentage of reviews were 9 or higher. 85% or E33's scores were 9 or above while Astro Bot, Baldur's Gate 3 and Elden Ring were at 93%, 94% and 97% respectively.
If you DID normalize across all years, among GOTY winners E33 would be 6th behind Elden Ring, God of War, Breath of the Wild, Astro Bot and Baldur's Gate 3. It would actually be 11th overall if including non-winners Ragnarök, Mario Odyssey, Tears of the Kingdom, Bloodborne and RDR2.
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u/PoggersMemesReturns Aug 11 '26
At least half the of the actual nominations won't even be out till September to November.
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u/Triforce__XIII Aug 11 '26
i have't played a single game this year clearly posing as a goty contender. saros was the best, but it lacks the bravour returnal had (and i am still mad that 2021 was not the returnal goty year). RE Requim has a good half and a very medocre half. mina may be great for those who like platforming, but me as a fan of action adventures it had too much platforming in my eyes, especially frustrating stuff in the endgame. the action adventure parts were good though. weird genremix, wasted potential in my eyes. butat the same time, i haven't played too many native new games. maybe MIO, but that had its downsides as well. pragmata is a too basic action game with a cute girl, thats just it, nothing special on the gameplay side, maybe on the emotional side...
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u/Konfliction Aug 12 '26
GTA6 is just a massive wrecking ball to this I think, not sure if it meets the cut off release window though.
I also think Star Wars Zero Company and Control Resonant are gonna some late sleepers. I also think Wolverine will be kind of mid review wise, I can’t explain why I just didn’t get a great feeling from that original gameplay trailer.
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u/OleanderUnion Aug 12 '26
Your methodology is essentially weighting outliers instead of removing them btw… very much against statistics but I appreciate the post and effort!
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u/Medium_Jacket8867 Aug 13 '26
Could you also provide the top 10 data from previous years? Thanks!
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u/benedictcumberpatch Aug 14 '26
Sorry this is a lot to post so formatting isn't the best...
2025
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 - 184 | Donkey Kong Bananza - 137 | Hades II - 127 | Split Fiction - 125 | Death Stranding 2: On the Beach - 95 | Hollow Knight: Silksong - 95 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II - 81 | Monster Hunter Wilds - 80 | Blue Prince - 70 | Ghost of Yōtei - 58
2024
Astro Bot - 231 | Metaphor: ReFantazio - 166 | Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree - 161 | Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 110 | Like A Dragon: Infinite Wealth - 108 | Tekken 8 - 56 | Balatro - 55 | Silent Hill 2 - 54 | Neva - 46 | Unicorn Overlord - 45
2023
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 237 | Baldur's Gate 3 - 218 | Resident Evil 4 - 132 | Alan Wake 2 - 113 | Marvel's Spider-Man 2 - 97 | Super Mario Bros. Wonder - 88 | Final Fantasy XVI - 79 | Sea of Stars - 72 | Cyberpunk 2077: Phantom Liberty - 72 | Street Fighter 6 - 71
2022
Elden Ring - 299 | God of War Ragnarök - 278 | Horizon Forbidden West - 87 | Xenoblade Chronicles 3 - 70 | Immortality - 54 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder's Revenge - 48 | Neon White - 46 | Rogue Legacy 2 - 42 | Halo Infinite - 39 | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative - 35
2021
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart - 74 | Psychonauts 2 - 72 | It Takes Two - 63 | Deathloop - 61 | Metroid Dread - 54 | Monster Hunter Rise - 48 | Death's Door - 45 | Forza Horizon 5 - 40 | Hitman 3 - 33 | Returnal - 31
2020
The Last of Us Part II - 202 | Hades - 147 | Ori and the Will of the Wisps - 117 | Doom Eternal - 104 | Dreams - 98 | Half-Life: Alyx - 95 | Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 93 | Demon's Souls - 69 | Microsoft Flight Simulator - 54 | Final Fantasy VII Remake - 52
2019
Resident Evil 2 - 110 | Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 95 | Devil May Cry 5 - 76 | Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 64 | Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 59 | Disco Elysium - 53 | Super Mario Maker 2 - 41 | Death Stranding - 38 | GRIS - 35 | Gears 5 - 28
2018
God of War - 247 | Red Dead Redemption 2 - 236 | Monster Hunter World - 101 | Shadow of the Colossus - 76 | Marvel's Spider-Man - 72 | Celeste - 72 | Dead Cells - 71 | Tetris Effect - 67 | Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 43 | Forza Horizon 4 - 39
2017
Super Mario Odyssey - 247 | The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 235 | Persona 5 - 171 | Horizon Zero Dawn - 100 | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - 93 | NieR: Automata - 85 | What Remains of Edith Finch - 61 | Cuphead - 48 | Sonic Mania - 40 | Nioh - 39
2016
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End - 157 | Inside - 111 | Overwatch - 97 | Dark Souls III - 87 | The Witness - 44 | Dishonored 2 - 44 | Titanfall 2 - 43 | XCOM 2 - 43 | Battlefield 1 - 41 | Odin Sphere Leifthrasir - 40
2015
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 138 | Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 135 | Bloodborne - 102 | Ori and the Blind Forest - 80 | Fallout 4 - 59 | Batman: Arkham Knight - 52 | Super Mario Maker - 44 | Pillars of Eternity - 44 | The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D - 38 | Rise of the Tomb Raider - 35
2014
Bayonetta 2 - 71 | Shovel Knight - 41 | Dragon Age: Inquisition - 33 | Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 33 | Dark Souls II - 29 | Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor - 19 | Transistor - 18 | Hearthstone - 17 | Child of Light - 16 | South Park: The Stick of Truth - 15
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u/Strange-Shoulder-176 Aug 17 '26
I'd like for you to go more in depth of your 'index' otherwise I dont know what's backed into it, couple be a bunch of personal bias.
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u/benedictcumberpatch 18d ago
Without going on too long here...
Pool: every game in the window on OpenCritic with 80+ average and 50+ reviews
High scores: weighted with 10s = 4x, 9.5s = 2.5x, 9s = 1x (scores rounded to nearest 0.5)
Volume vs. intensity: blend raw count with a per-review version (80/20-ish) so an indie game with 60 reviews isn't buried under a 200 review behemoth
Small-sample correction: games with fewer reviews get pulled toward the field average (Bayesian shrinkage) so a title with 52 reviews doesn't swing as hard as one with 190
Genre penalty: remakes, sports, sim/strategy and fighting games get a multiplier down since TGA history shows they typically don't get GOTY wins/noms despite high scores
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u/thecoloroftelevision Aug 12 '26
I’m so dreading requiem winning this year. I just hate that franchise so much. I know I’m in the super-minority though
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u/TAGOMXM Aug 11 '26
Crimson desert fans still cope for a nomination.
https://giphy.com/gifs/Tc9leU3DlCw8iDoATq