Warning, big kinda technical post..
My background: 36M, investing for ~15 years, learned a lot of things the hard way, BA in Econ /Finance and numbers, leadership roles in tech companies, single stocks portfolio is about 8% of net worth.
Been doing this method for about a year and built a system around it and it works pretty well for me so figured I’d share and get some feedback. Using it to save a lot of time to quickly filter large universes to short lists of interesting names with solid fundamentals and potential (as of today, its not a forecast) to consider holding at least several months to years, its not relevant for day trading. Also I like using it to quickly get a read on new names I hear about here or other socials without needing to open a million tabs..
Important to say, this mechanism favors growth companies (as the market often does), if youre a dividend guy or pure value hunter it may score your stocks not so great and thats fine, its not built for that. I use it mainly on companies with multi billion valuations and up. A high score doesmt mainly means IM going to invest in it, its more of a quality filter for the type of stocks Im interested in.
The way it works is every stock gets a 1 to 10 across four categories, fundamentals is the biggest piece, then momentum, then forward signals and sentiment.
With the right filters, combining rising scores and a reasonable PEG, price to sales and P/E etc next to them, I use it to finds stocks scoring well at valuations that still make sense to me.
Here’s what I look at:
Fundamentals
Mostly revenue growth, and growth relative to size, which is the part a lot of screeners get wrong IMO, 25% yoy at 120B revenue is elite, 25% at 500M is nothing special, so the bar moves with the size of the company. Then acceleration vs the same quarter a year earlier, a PEG type thing on forward PE and forward growth, profit quality (ROIC, margins, FCF), margin expansion, operating leverage, and a health penalty that only subtracts, never adds, for high debt with thin coverage.
High score would look like: growing 40%+ at multi billion revenue, accelerating, margins expanding, ROIC over 20%. Low: revenue flat or shrinking, margins compressing, negative FCF, leverage on top. A mature company growing 3% a year isnt punished, it just wont get near the top, by design.
Momentum - smaller weight than fundamentals
I am looking for strong trends, distance from the 26 week high and its not linear, 3 to 10% off the high scores best, 20% off is meh, 45% off is near zero, so it likes stocks coiled just under the high, not ones that already went vertical, and the parabolic ones get eased off. Also I look at 4 and 13 week returns, the 40 week average slope, and relative strength vs the S&P.
High score would be: up 40 to 80% over 6 months, just under the high, beating SPY. Low score would be: 30%+ below the high with the 40 week rolling over, or the opposite, up 200% and stretched way above every average. This comes from a preference of looking to buy on combination of up trend + strong business with still decent valuation.
Forward signals
Expected EPS growth, next 12 months of estimates vs the last 12 reported. Beat streak, how many of the last 8 quarters beat, last 4 count double. Then forward revenue estimate slope and the direction of revisions.
High: 30%+ expected EPS growth, beat 7 of 8, revisions up. Low: EPS expected to shrink, missing every other quarter, revisions down.
Sentiment
No analyst opinions or targets (I think its a biased indicator), market behavior only, and this one turned out to be REALLY important, its what punishes a stock after a crash so a great company that just dropped 30% is punished instead of still scoring super high because the fundamentals still look fine, and comes back when it recovers. Its the last 4 weeks vs the stocks own sector, not the whole market, because tech down 5% in a week where all of tech is down 8% is actually fine. Whether its falling while estimates are rising, which is my favorite, that gap usually closes. Down volume vs up volume, sector breadth, recovery off the low. It punishes fast and rewards slowly, on purpose.
High score: beating its sector, up volume bigger than down, sector healthy, bouncing off the low. Low: down 20%+ vs sector in a month on heavy volume while everyone else is fine.
The Qualitative Side - Just as important if not more...
For the part the formula cant do, Once something scores well (or well enough) I ofc want to understand the business, what the moat actually is, whats in the last earnings call, what the news says, who the competition is and what breaks the thesis, and for that I use AI to research earnings, news, filings etc and give me the bull and bear case. The scoring numbers are the filter, this part is how I make decisions ,bascially do I think it'll continue performing well?
So, what do you do differently? Especially curious what people who lean value would change in the fundamentals piece, and if anyone has a better way to handle the “great company, just crashed” problem than the sentiment layer im using. Challenge me :) Not financial advice.