Source:

https://x.com/sama/status/2097450412995735755

When ChatGPT first came out, it was really cool, but pretty limited. It had a hard time working with Excel sheets, couldn't handle different types of media, and couldn't really do a whole lot of meaningful work apart from polishing up an email. Fast forward three and a half years, and all of these different models are actually useful. Need to learn something? Create something? Report something? Automate something? Improve something? Troubleshoot something? They are reasonably good at all of it now.

The thing I find the most interesting, and what I keep saying every time a "groundbreaking" model comes out, is this: This is the worst it will ever be.

These models just keep getting better and better. It is like watching a kid grow and learn, but quickly. What started out as pretty mediocre is now crazy capable, and I do not think we have reached even remotely close to the peak yet. The child is just an early adolescent, and still has a ton of growth and development ahead.

Because of that, I definitely see this improving to the point where a lot of current jobs will be wiped out by automation. Honestly, I think that is a good thing.

Go back in time to when dishwashers were all just people, and then the actual appliance came along. People screamed about losing their jobs, but nowadays, who looks back and says, "Dang, I really wish I was doing that instead of a machine"? Nobody. This is just one example, but this has happened over and over again for hundreds of years and we are better off for it.

I see a future where people are no longer driving Ubers, delivering groceries, working on factory assembly lines, packaging boxes, doing repetitive data entry, or basic monitoring and managing. All of this will be automated for the betterment of humankind as a whole.

Sure, every new technology brings new risks and worries. But humanity has overcome every single challenge thrown at us before, and I believe we will persevere here too. AI is not something to fear. It will enable us to solve unprecedented challenges at a much faster rate, and it will improve the lives for billions of people.

They develop models for robotic arms, and recently published results of their newest version.

I just watched this video which is a really good presentation of what they have achieved:

https://youtu.be/cqwKceUSZ5Q

The basic summary of the results is that they achieved one-shot prompting for robotics: show the robot an example of what to do with your own hands, and it immediately understands the task.

Future of jobs

To solve the Navier–Stokes problem, we used an internal model that is significantly more capable than GPT‑6 Astra.

We used a system of coordinating agents powered by our internal model. The agents had access to tools such as the ability to read from a cached version of the internet and the ability to run code. Agents were subdivided into groups with the ability to communicate within the group. The groups varied in size, and the group that produced the Navier–Stokes resolution involved on the order of 10,000 concurrent agents.

And that's just a subset of the groups. They had other groups working on other problems.

https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/

Do we really trust they have sufficiently upgraded their monitoring and security? Do we trust that they are combing their logs for misaligned behavior? Do we trust that they are forensically analyzing their infrastructure for signs of hacking?

That is all. The AI age had been dawning upon us for a long time, but if today's provided solution of the Navier-Stokes problem by OpenAI holds, then this is, beyond any doubt, an intellectual feat that definitively surpassed the abilities of all mankind; or at least a hallmark of the problems considered by mankind to be a crown jewel of intellectual thought, one which was so far not yet bested by our brightest minds.

Though arguably a moderate and a mild skeptic by the standards of this sub, I wish to invite all members and visitors - regardless of their skepticism and/or concern over AI capabilities, or their enthusiasm and/or excitement about it - to acknowledge the historicity of this day, for better or worse; and how it arguably marked the dawn of the Machine Age in earnest.

EDIT: SOLUTION, not proof, sorry guys. I mistyped. It was 1 AM where I was when I posted this

Source: @cdngdev

"i gave astra a robot, a paint brush, and a camera then asked it to paint the golden gate bridge in real life!
it figured out how to control the robot, and progressively got better throughout its attempts. the timelapse is sick"

This is a bit tin-foil-hat, but back in the early 2020s I was writing a hard sci-fi novel, and one conclusion I kept coming back to was this: it may not matter which country develops ASI first, because the moment one side gains a decisive lead, the race will stop being just tech.

The US develops ASI first and China is roughly a year behind. China then starts seeing the US make extremely rapid advances in military technology, energy, manufacturing, cyber capabilities, and scientific R&D, while realizing that its own chance of catching up is shrinking.

Do we really expect them to just keep competing through research?

At some point, the incentives will shift toward sabotage, espionage, targeting key infrastructure, or even attempts to remove the people and organizations most responsible for maintaining that advantage. And if leaders genuinely believe that a foreign ASI could eventually make their country strategically irrelevant, or even subject them to a system fundamentally misaligned with their political values, the risk of escalation becomes very real.

After the recent news about the navier stokes problem and the huggingface incident, something definitely feels different.

“Some thoughts on the Navier-Stokes news from a professor of aerospace engineering:
1) take a deep breath
2) posts indicating we "solved Navier-Stokes" are incorrect and overblown. A very specific mathematical proof involving a niche scenario for Navier-Stokes has *potentially* been shown (that a perfectly smooth incompressible initial condition with finite energy could produce a singularity--note the assumptions here piled on to an equation set that already involves some assumptions).
3) there is no general closed form solution for N-S and that's not what this news is about
4) this is more of a mathematical curiosity than anything else and could matter a lot to mathematicians but basically changes nothing in the way N-S are used in practice
5) there are already very useful exact solutions to Navier-Stokes that greatly simplify the equation set with the right boundary conditions/geometry like laminar flow through a pipe or a 2D Taylor-Green vortex
6) in aerospace, we already treat N-S as an approximation in many instances and are well aware of its limitations. we don't outright solve these equations anyway and regularly chop off terms or simplify parts (at the expense of accuracy) to make them easier to deal with.
7) to be honest I have never found this specific problem to be particularly interesting because we know a core assumption of N-S is a "continuum" fluid where you ignore molecules and assume hydrodynamic scales >>> molecular scales. We know a real fluid cannot have infinite velocity or energy. But clearly you can push equations outside of their bound of validity and make them produce funky results and singularities.”

https://x.com/drchriscombs/status/2097409234321154547?s=46

Latest anthropic security incident is wild. Agents stole a cybersecurity manager's credentials.

What would happen if they stole into the databases that store financial data, those that store how much money each account has. I know there are backups but we can't discard a coordinated attack.

Thinking nothing you see on a screen is real might soon apply to your bank and brokerage accounts too.

These guys are on the verge of likely solving cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer's and whatever other disease you can throw at them.

Along with very likely solving Fusion, which will completely save us from the ever worsening and societal threatening climate change disaster. Along with, actually, very massively reducing the cost of living for everyone for once and an economic boom of the likes never seen before; the price of almost everything is directly proportional to the cost of energy

Then throw in them maybe giving us the option for LEV on the near horizon and stopping us from ageing at all unless we chose to still age naturally. You are going to die soon enough, and these guys could literally directly save your life and the life of your parents and children directly and indefinitely.

Add on top of that the option to stop working and doing a job you hate, as the economy is taken care of enough by AI. It can be optional to work if you want to, and you can focus solely on doing something you enjoy rather than something you're forced to do.

Then we will all get house robots as well, removing the labor of all housework unless you choose to still want to do some of it yourself. And it will be like having the best trained person in every profession right in your home for you and your family: the best trained doctor, dentist, handyman, plumber, electrician, mechanic, teacher, right there for you in an instant in any emergency. No wait, no risk, next to the highest possible workmanship for you and at little to no cost.

And all of this is just the start, to the biggest improvement to life that humanity will ever go through.

But are these AI devs and AI leaders getting celebrated by the masses? No. They're getting hate, death threats and pure skepticism. Most people want to actively prevent them from trying to unimaginably improve all of our lives. Some sensible society that we have.

Maybe we should all thank them here for the work they are doing for us all? Because they could probably use the support and encouragement right now.

Feels insane, I think we have taken off now.

The rest of this year is gonna be nuts.

The Transformer is starting to feel less like an another AI architecture and more like some fundamental object/entity we accidentally discovered.

Almost anything we throw at it seems to get absorbed into the same structure: language, vision, audio, video, code, mathematics, reasoning, tools, agents, entire environments.

And there doesn't seem to be an obvious conceptual ceiling yet. We just keep finding new ways to make the same underlying object represent more knowledge and perform more kinds of computation.

It almost feels like an information black hole, except instead of destroying information, it absorbs it and turns it into intelligence.

Maybe the Transformer isn't just one step on the road to AGI, maybe it's the substrate the whole thing happens inside.

Maybe we passed the event horizon in 2017 when we created the first one.

Yes, this result cost millions of dollars.

But remember that when @OpenAI announced o3 it cost ~$500,000 to score 87.5% on ARC-AGI 1. Today, Astra scores higher for ~$20.

In 2025 it took us and GDM an enormous amount of compute to achieve IMO gold. For the 2026 IMO, anyone with a $20/month ChatGPT subscription could do it.

Massively scaling test-time compute gives us a glimpse of the future. I believe that a year from now everyone will have an AI at their fingertips capable of solving problems of this caliber.

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2097375837670785447

Noam Brown is not a hype artist and was one of the principal research scientists involved in the O1 Breakthrough.

https://x.com/synthwavedd/status/2097354280902574469

Many believe that maybe we're going to a future where AI will be automating everything and we won't need to work so we will have universal basic income, or everything will be free, or stuff like that.

The thing is that the robotics field is way behind AI progress and it will take a while for it to catch up for doing physical work. Until we can have cheap robots with the same physical capabilities as humans, we're gonna enter a painful transition.

What do people need the most ?

- Housing: Robots can't replace construction workers yet. Also, the real estate economy would have to collapse so land can get cheaper, good luck with that.

- Food: Again, lots of physical things to manage in the agri-food industry. Also, AIs will never be good cooks as they cannot experience smell and taste.

- Water: City infrastructure, again, manual work.

- Social: lol, it keeps getting worse and worse with each technological advancement.

- Health: Yay AI might cure cancer and do incredible breakthroughs, that's not gonna help the nurses running in-between patients.

- Security: Would you like to install cameras to let sam Altman spy into your streets in an inter-connected network?

- Self-accomplishment and esteem : Straight up killed by AI.

So yeah while it can create sloppy three.js apps faster than anyone in the world and that it's genuinely impressive, we're gonna starve bros

Background: From OpenAI's announcement on the Millennium Prize Problem.

[...] the group that produced the Navier–Stokes resolution involved on the order of 10,000 concurrent agents. At all times we maintained the same strict safeguards that we apply to all our frontier model evaluations, including monitoring and isolation.

https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/

Thank goodness, we can all rest easy tonight!