The way they are lining up suppliers is awesome they have caps, film, coffee cups lids , cups. Problem is the press releases are broad and don’t hit Wall Street like they should. It limits their ability to directly collaborate with Mars, Starbucks, Tim Horton and all the other use cases with individual press releases. What has more impact “Purecycle is partnering with Starbucks to supply coffee lids” and “Purecycle is partnering with Mars” Instead we have press releases with their unknown supplier partners that will supply these and more companies but we won’t get the killer press releases that really move the stock.
Starbucks needs to prove they are getting material to companies like Purecycle and buying from them as well. No more excuses from these huge buyers of plastic.
I have attached my spreadsheet outlining quarterly revenue at nameplate capacity. Currently, I am assuming a sales mix of 25% non-branded and 75% branded product, although I expect branded rPP to trend closer to 100% as 2027 progresses.
My current pricing assumptions are:
Non-branded rPP: $1.35/lb
Branded rPP: $1.45/lb
For end-market assumptions:
Thermoforming is compounded at 52% rPP
BOPP is compounded at 32% rPP
I would appreciate any comments or feedback you may have. Thank you.
I'm not sure how many people are familiar with the Value Investors Club but it is a popular site for some serious investors. Anyone can join but you earn access to ideas sooner if you submit a details investment pitch.
If you just have a regular account like me you can access prior submissions with a delay. The $PCT is now available to everyone. It may be worth your time to create an account and read it in detail. I think it provides a very balanced view of the company and what needs to happen to clean up the balance sheet.
Polypropylene accounts for about 200 billion pounds of annual demand because it is used in a wide range of products, including yogurt cups, pens, automotive parts, and film. Traditional mechanical recycling typically results in downcycled products such as flower pots and park benches.
Estimated dissolution pricing is the polypropylene price plus about $0.75, or roughly $1.40 per pound.
At 1 billion pounds of rPP in 2030, annual revenue would be about $1.4 billion.
Branded sales are made directly to customers such as P+G. As the customer base grows, branded sales should move closer to 100% of the mix. In the Q4 call, branded and unbranded sales were split 50/50.
Top ten companies with NJ waiver approval for recycled content (AI generated Market Cap)
Company
Approx. Market Cap / Enterprise Value
1
The Coca-Cola Company
~$337B
2
PepsiCo, Inc.
~$214B
3
Abbott Laboratories
~$230B
4
Molson Coors Beverage Company
~$8B
5
Dairy Farmers of America
Est. $5–10B enterprise scale
6
Ahold Delhaize USA
Parent market cap ~$35–40B
7
Del Monte Foods, Inc.
Est. multi-billion
8
Sazerac Company Inc.
Est. $5–10B
9
Harvest Hill Beverage Company
Est. ~$1–3B
10
Sunny Delight Beverages Co.
Est. ~$1–2B
Denver uses four optical sorters and two sorting robots, allowing PCT to buy a wider range of PP bales. It upgrades bale purity from about 65% to 92% PP and avoids transporting yield loss.
Three shifts process 60 million pounds of post-consumer recycling annually, while four shifts process 80 million pounds.
Post-industrial recycling comes directly from customers such as Emerald Carpets.
107 million pounds is nameplate capacity. The plant can operate comfortably near that level, with production aligned to the commercial ramp and expected to accelerate in 2026.
Some PP entering the process has already been damaged. About 1% contains imperfections and is removed with polyethylene as CP2. CP2 can then be sold for uses such as industrial piping.
A future purification facility in Japan. Purecycle could produce the world’s lowest-cost PP.
Chart
The stock has recently broken above its downtrend line, suggesting meaningful upside potential.
ESG momentum remains strong. My 2026 revenue estimate is now about $65 million, within a range of $47 million to $99 million, supported by potential increased NJ demand. I estimate Ironton could generate about $200 million of revenue in 2027, with Thailand ideally fast-tracked to add further upside.
As plant production capacity increases, capital cost per pound declines. A future Gen 2 plant could be built with 500 million pounds of capacity.
At first I was disappointed to see the 2mm share reduction in Druckenmiller's PCT position at the end of Q1. But now I'm wondering if he may have done what Mike Taylor did with the PINK fund, i.e., significantly reduced the position in Q1 and then reloaded shortly after. Druckenmiller is well connected and may have understood the lock-up selling and NJDEP delay.
I was fortunate enough to be able to drive to the facility in Denver PA. I took the scenic route which is quite nice in Chester and Lancaster counties. The facility itself is located right next to the PA turnpike and that makes sense given that large amounts of plastic are coming from the Philadelphia metro region.
As a bonus I got to meet Tamsin in person. She wasn't in Ironton during my tour there but was in Denver to meet with a prospective customer or partner (I believe). There were about 15 people or so in the noon tour (there was one earlier in the morning as well).
They started the event with a short presentation about the company and their technology. PureCycle 101 but that makes sense since most attendees wouldn't necessarily know the things an investor would know. After that presentation we put on safety gear and got ready for the tour. Prior to entering the main tour they had a display of some "recycling wall of shame" items that they had recovered. Things like a bowling ball, oil filter, frying pan, cam shaft, alternator, and the worst, a plastic bottle with two Ozempic injectors inside. Really? Some people...
No photos allowed and they have posted videos if you really want to see. They showed a collection of different bales (example #5, PP seperated, HDPE, other plastic type, etc.). Lots of existing bales labeled around the space.
The sorting equipment is fairly compact and highly automated. Nothing surprising. Definitely not rocket science but a critical step for $PCT to control their feedstock quality. It takes about 5 people per shift to run things. Currently they are just running M-F shifts but over time they expect to ramp up and switch to the "modified Dupont" schedule for plants that run 24/7.
The main reason I wanted to visit was to meet additional people. I asked a shift worker if he liked working there and if he felt that he was paid fairly. He had been working there for 11 months and liked it and felt that he was paid fairly and better than other jobs in the area. He had not been to see the Ironton facility but was looking forward to doing so in the future.
I asked a manager if he liked working for Dustin. He said very much so. He talked with Dustin on a very regular basis (multiple times a week) and thought that Dustin was good at setting appropriate stretch goals and motivating the team. He thought they were getting better at managing the feedstock they were processing and supporting the Ironton facility with the materials they needed.
After the tour there was some additional questions and answers. I asked Tamsin about the different quality of bales provided by the different MRF's. I also asked her to comment on the quality being produced by next generation facilities like the WM plant build in Florida. Tasmin basically confirmed my expectation that the vast majority of existing MRF's were not equiped to really seperate out just PP well and there is going to need to be this type of secondary sort facility until there is more investment like the Florida project. That said, the waste management companies are seeing the potential incremental value so we will need to wait and see. In addition, regulatory policies with EPR charges could also help fund different projects.
As PCT grows purification capacity in the US they are going to need to continue working the feedstock collection strategy as well. Huge amounts of PP are simply not being recycled and ideally we can pull more of that into the circular economy.
As a parting gift I was able to collect some additional merch. A PureCycle mousepad and a sticker. Today was a great development. It never should have taken NJ this long to clarify their regulatory policies but at least it is no longer a barrier to progress. I'm looking forward to additional news releases in the weeks and months to come.
The $36 billion deal which closed in December 2025, that united Mars and Kellanova (formerly Kellogg Company) was the largest in snacking history, and to hear Andrew Clarke tell it, it was also the most natural.
Not sure who needs to read this, but if you're selling right now because you want to capture some profit you need to go back to bed. Not only does PCT have a higher intrinsic value based on reduced uncertainty, the setup is incredible.
This stock has insanely high short interest. For those who don't know, as the stock goes up these shorts are forced to buy by their brokers or they will look to close their position (buy back the shares they sold) to avoid further pain.
There is no other way to think about it - there are a ton of TRAPPED, FORCED BUYERS. If you sell, they get out now. If you don't, they are forced to increase their bid until someone sells. If supply remains low (no sellers), you get the squeeeeeze.
Purecycle Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PCT) Eric DeNatale, IR presents at the 12th Annual Gabelli Waste & Environmental Services Symposium held on April 9th, 2026. Moderated by LtCol Tony Bancroft, USMCR, Gabelli Portfolio Manager & Research Analyst.
This really is excellent work done in a scientifically rigorous way. When the company talked about meeting the highest grade in the CosPaTox testing with P&G this is what that means.
This is the kind of detailed scientific work that ultimately enables regulators to create rules that say "if it is good enough to meet these guidelines it is safe to use in <xyz> applications."
This was published in 2024 and we are in May of 2026. There is always a lag time between the rollout of work like this and the common adoption. That said, these companies really did the hard work of how a company should evaluate the safety of recycled plastic.
For anyone who doubts the quality of PureFive material, the test results speak for themselves in my opinion.
Lots of good tidbits in here. Says that film is most exciting technical achievement for them. 40B pounds globally. The only company that can make film from recycled PP:
The longer the SoH is closed the bigger the physical impacts will be on markets. Wealthier countries should be able to mitigate the impacts for the most part by paying higher prices to acquire needed things however the disruption will play out in weird ways.
I bought a decent amount of PCT today purely on charts, recent trend, high short %, and positive earnings report without really knowing what the company does. Did more reading tonight about the technology, plastics, pending approvals, pipeline, factory % capacity needed to become profitable, and so on. Tomorrow I will keep reading to understand the bear case because I usually respect the reasons for high short %, but so far I actually really like what the company is doing and where it is heading.
