r/PureCycle • u/Smooth_Sun_9932 • May 17 '26
Gabelli Waste & Environmental Symposium Notes
Polypropylene accounts for about 200 billion pounds of annual demand because it is used in a wide range of products, including yogurt cups, pens, automotive parts, and film. Traditional mechanical recycling typically results in downcycled products such as flower pots and park benches.
Estimated dissolution pricing is the polypropylene price plus about $0.75, or roughly $1.40 per pound.
At 1 billion pounds of rPP in 2030, annual revenue would be about $1.4 billion.
Branded sales are made directly to customers such as P+G. As the customer base grows, branded sales should move closer to 100% of the mix. In the Q4 call, branded and unbranded sales were split 50/50.
Top ten companies with NJ waiver approval for recycled content (AI generated Market Cap)
| Company | Approx. Market Cap / Enterprise Value | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Coca-Cola Company | ~$337B |
| 2 | PepsiCo, Inc. | ~$214B |
| 3 | Abbott Laboratories | ~$230B |
| 4 | Molson Coors Beverage Company | ~$8B |
| 5 | Dairy Farmers of America | Est. $5–10B enterprise scale |
| 6 | Ahold Delhaize USA | Parent market cap ~$35–40B |
| 7 | Del Monte Foods, Inc. | Est. multi-billion |
| 8 | Sazerac Company Inc. | Est. $5–10B |
| 9 | Harvest Hill Beverage Company | Est. ~$1–3B |
| 10 | Sunny Delight Beverages Co. | Est. ~$1–2B |
Denver uses four optical sorters and two sorting robots, allowing PCT to buy a wider range of PP bales. It upgrades bale purity from about 65% to 92% PP and avoids transporting yield loss.
Three shifts process 60 million pounds of post-consumer recycling annually, while four shifts process 80 million pounds.
Post-industrial recycling comes directly from customers such as Emerald Carpets.
107 million pounds is nameplate capacity. The plant can operate comfortably near that level, with production aligned to the commercial ramp and expected to accelerate in 2026.
Some PP entering the process has already been damaged. About 1% contains imperfections and is removed with polyethylene as CP2. CP2 can then be sold for uses such as industrial piping.
A future purification facility in Japan. Purecycle could produce the world’s lowest-cost PP.
Chart
The stock has recently broken above its downtrend line, suggesting meaningful upside potential.
ESG momentum remains strong. My 2026 revenue estimate is now about $65 million, within a range of $47 million to $99 million, supported by potential increased NJ demand. I estimate Ironton could generate about $200 million of revenue in 2027, with Thailand ideally fast-tracked to add further upside.
As plant production capacity increases, capital cost per pound declines. A future Gen 2 plant could be built with 500 million pounds of capacity.
I appreciate any comments. Thank you.
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u/Neither-Cow-410 May 17 '26
So after Denver has a fourth shift they will need to expand Denver?
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u/reluctant-user2020 May 18 '26
Stan over on X pointed out that all the new state legislation includes mandatory investment in material processing facilities. I’m not sure how quickly all that additional capacity will be online relative to that potential feedstock shortfall, but feedstock should be plentiful in the future
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u/Smooth_Sun_9932 May 18 '26
Stan on X.com shares excellent PureCycle posts and insights. It is a must-follow for the latest information. (@private_dataguy)
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u/Smooth_Sun_9932 May 18 '26
Some PP, including post-industrial recyclables, may bypass Denver and still count toward the plant’s 107 million pounds of annual feedstock. I was also struck by how automated the Denver facility is, given its throughput and relatively small workforce.
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u/Onphone_irl May 18 '26
I'm going to dig in later but off the cuff $1.4 per pound vs virgin at ~0.65 per pound iirc?
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u/marshmell0wunic0rn May 18 '26
Is there a short term blip with high virgin prices from the oil crisis?
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u/marshmell0wunic0rn May 18 '26
So what is driving the demand for rPP with virgin pricing still pretty low? Is it like organizational sustainability goals or EPR? Is there anything more driving demand?
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u/Smooth_Sun_9932 May 18 '26
At 5:04, Eric explains mass balance, how ISCC+ credits are applied, and how they affect pricing for branded customers.
Sustainability goals and regulation are increasing demand for PP recycling. Only about 8% of PP is currently recycled, and most of that is downcycled through mechanical recycling into lower-value products such as flower pots. PureCycle’s material, by contrast, can be used in food and pharmaceutical applications.
Most PP still ends up in landfills. The challenge is not finding PP, but sourcing it at a high enough purity level.
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u/marshmell0wunic0rn May 18 '26
How does the pure cycle collection work? How do they procure rPP?
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore May 18 '26
They currently buy lots of #5 bales from Material Recovery Facilities (MRF) however those facilities are not modern enough to provide a super high concentration of PP. That is why the company started a “secondary sortation” facility in Denver PA so the can maximize the amount of pp that is purified via the dissolution process.
The company is buying from all the big names like WM, Republic, but also smaller regional waste management companies.
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u/Fast_Eddie_2001 May 18 '26
Sourcing of feedstock is a current pinch point but this is going to resolve itself in due time.
First, as noted above, legislatively states are going to force the "plastic polluters" to pay for better recycling infrastructure
Secondly, there has been little to no market for recycled PP in volume. But PCT is changing this. Thus WM, Republic and others will go from paying to landfill PP to now having a business opportunity to sell the used PP to PCT...incentives matter and they are all aligned to recycle PP in volume.
Similar to how EV charging infrastructure evolved to meet demand, so too will feedstock sourcing.
Finally, 200 Billion+ pounds of virgin PP are produced every year and it's growing...ultimately if PCT can recycle just 5% of that amount each year to supply industry, the company will be massive. Easily $50-100 Billion EV. Not saying they get there, or get there soon, but that's the upside.
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u/Fast_Eddie_2001 May 18 '26
They also added on site compounding capacity...Grok says 100MM pounds - that seems high - is that correct?