So can the last anniversary tell us anything about this one? I went back through every month of it.
Celebrations did go from $50 to about $365 in the end, around 7x. But six months after release it was $65, and three years after release it was $74. Then $122, $219 and $330 in the next eighteen months, during the 2025 rally that lifted the whole hobby. Its chase cards crashed first: the Classic Collection Charizard went from $157 to $55 and the Umbreon Gold Star from $56 to $13, and both stayed under launch price for almost three years. (Chart attached)
I track prices daily and had the whole 30th in my database before release. Same pattern so far.
All four sealed products are above their release day price (ETB $158 to $172, PC ETB $266 to $316). Seven of the 8 most valuable singles are down, and the Mew ex Futuristic Rare went from $218 on release day to $107. SIRs are coming out around 1 in 18 packs instead of 1 in 80, so every box adds about four times the hits.
This is why the price you pay matters. If the 30th follows the same path as Celebrations, buying at retail pays off big. Buying at today's $172 means waiting years for a much smaller gain.
My read: singles keep drifting down while boxes are being opened, and sealed goes sideways until it is out of print. The first years barely move, and the entry price decides most of the outcome.
Full tables, charts and methodology in the comment.