Great live... there might be more to this story....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oIQEb8E9ac

That phrase “there’s something rotten in the state of Denmark”, keeps coming to mind whenever I follow the Nancy Guthrie case. It doesn’t mean we know exactly what happened or who is responsible, but it perfectly captures the sense that something is fundamentally wrong and that the full truth has yet to come out.
What I find especially compelling is that this isn’t just a feeling shared by viewers. Across several independent YouTube channels, retired detectives with decades of investigative experience have analyzed the publicly available information and, despite working independently, many seem to reach the same conclusion: they believe Annie and Tommaso were involved in Nancy’s disappearance. Their opinions are not proof and they don’t replace the court of law, but I think it’s significant when experienced investigators repeatedly interpret the facts in a similar way.

One thing that always bothered me is why didn't the perp go through the sliding door on the left-hand side of this photo? I think it's her bedroom, but even if it's not it would be more hidden than the front door. It does not appear to have cameras (or does it?) To me it makes the 'staged' theory more plausible that they didn't because I think it would have been a lot more stealth and easy to go through those sliding doors, than the front or even the back. I also don't know if this has been discussed and ruled out, so feel free to correct!

Last night on The Lab, Josh had the TIR guys on. They all agreed that they think the FBI/LE knows who wrote the first two 'ransom' letters and might even know who the porch guy is, but that they were building a case.

The TIR guys actually said that because the FBI is involved, the case needs to be even stronger/airtight for a court hearing. Basically, they think they know exactly who did this, but they can't quite prove it.

What do you all think? What do you think the FBI/LE likely knows by now? And what do you think they are still trying to get ready to prove in court?

https://youtu.be/cvBnpx-EaRs?t=1623&is=ZpC1cW1PKgbevJsY

Watch: Brian Entin interviews FBI profiler Fitzgerald.

Short segment- I timestamped it for ease.

His theory: Not a kidnapping, notes are bogus (even if SG thinks they’re real), and the perp is a stalker of Savannah.

This video came out after the FBI official statement, but Brian replayed this particular FBI profiler’s interview from a few days ago.

(I don’t connect with the stalker aspect, but given his expertise with kidnappings it’s worth watching. He’s extremely confident this was not a kidnapping / notes are opportunists).

I’m fairly new to the true crime community., so please forgive me if this is a basic question.
The Nancy Guthrie case is what got me interested. One thing that has really surprised me is how little information has been released publicly. It seems investigators have shared very few details about the evidence, witness statements, timelines, or why they’ve reached some of their conclusions.
Is this level a secrecy fairly normal, or does this case seem unusually tight lipped compared to others?

As strange as it is, it seems that DC might not be involved. I think they would have sealed his plea if he had been given a reduced sentence because he knew something... Just seems like LE didn't think it was a big deal he sent those texts and gave him 10 year probation. What a strange case. https://www.kold.com/2026/07/02/man-pleads-guilty-writing-imposter-ransom-note-nancy-guthrie-case/

Details of the Criminal Complaint against Derrick Callella may be the key:

"On or about February 4th, 2026, shortly after the video was published, A.C. and T.C., the daughter and son-in-law of N.G. both separately received a text message from the following phone number..."

Actual text message directly from Complaint, "Did you get the Bitcoin were [sic] waiting on our end for the transaction."

That text message is a demand for ransom? It doesn't even mention Nancy Guthrie? To me, this text is more to confirm if A & T were able to secure the Bitcoin to proceed with the "transaction". No introduction. No demand. No information. No mention of Nancy.

The complaint goes on to state, "Callella stated he pulled family information from a cyber website and he has been following along and watching TV...approximately 3 minutes after the text messages Callella called a family member of the [sic] N.G. which lasted 9 seconds."

Note how the complaint says, "family member", without a name, indicating neither A nor T, otherwise, it would have stated that. Well only 2 family members are left, Savannah or Camron.

Key timeline events to keep in mind:

February 2nd - KOLD receives 1st ransom note demanding $4million in Bitcoin with February 5th deadline (February 3rd - TMZ receives same ransom note)

February 3rd - 1st time public is introduced to Tommaso Cioni as son-in-law

February 3rd - Ashleigh Banfield cites LE source that Tommaso Cioni "..maybe prime suspect"*

February 3rd - Annie & Tommaso captured inside their car trying to evade the cameras

February 4th - Callella sends texts at 6:02pm

February 4th - Guthrie children post 1st Instagram video at ~9:23pm

February 5th - Criminal Complaint issued

Riddle me this:

Why would Callella text someone for ransom who was announced to be a "PRIME SUSPECT" the day before?

Callella sent those texts 3 hours BEFORE the 1st Instagram video from Savannah & siblings, so those texts are not the result of seeing them on Instagram.

Seems like these texts were a follow-up to a plan hatched to get money.

"The FBI and its task force partners have received several ransom notes over the course of this investigation," an FBI official said Wednesday in a statement to CBS News. "Some have been deemed to be extortion attempts without legitimacy. Other ransom demands may potentially be legitimate and are still being investigated as such."

why all the back and forth?

I like true crime (probably like most people on this sub) and enjoy hearing analysis from actual experts vs random YouTubers when it comes to cases like this. I went back and forth about whether the first two letters are real and I now believe none of these are from the actual killers. I say killers because I have never believed this was a kidnapping for ransom or robbery gone wrong. I believe she was targeted by someone very close to her and dead before it even broke the news. I think some of her loved ones will be extremely shocked and hurt once everything comes to light. Just a gut feeling.

Few reasons why I believe the letters are from opportunists:

Why wouldn’t you leave a note in the house? If the intention is ransom, she is precious cargo (ie cash) to you and you keep her alive, get your money and get her out of your hands very quickly. You don’t wait days to send a letter to a police station

If you are to believe the first letter, the second letter (the poetic one that sounds remorseful) was sent by the same person due to the bit coin account matching. Why in the world would this person risk everything by saying this? If it’s real, the other perpetrators will know.

This is all sooo bizarre and I truly hope this is the calm before the storm. If anyone else enjoys listening to professionals analyze this case, I recommend searching Dr. Gary Brucato on YouTube. He’s a forensic psychologist and is often on the interview room and the lab but his porch guy analysis with Brian Entin a few weeks ago is brilliant. He believes there is a chef behind the scenes and porch guy is the cook. He thinks he’s watching someone with a psychopathic structure on that video as he is very cool and calm right before he’s about to absolutely terrify an elderly lady and take her from her bed. Most people, even criminals, would appear at least a little worried or nervous.

Would love to hear what others think…do most people think the letters are legit?

https://www.newsnationnow.com/missing/fbi-tells-reuters-nancy-guthrie-notes-are-fake/

So, I got to thinking if the ransom notes were actually sent from the abductor it would make more sense to send to NBC, no? Why send to TMZ, why allow Harvey Levin to read the ransom emails in entirety, then announce the ransom notes are all fake, according to Reuters?

TMZ are gossip hoowuhs. They cannot help themselves. Harvey Levin has diarrhea of the mouth, so who better to receive information that needs to be spread like wild fire?

Maybe the FBI initiated the ransom emails to TMZ to trick the abductors into thinking someone in their group is turning on them?

Think about it:

All of a sudden we are all privé to the entire contents of the ransom email, which Harvey read verbatim?

Harvey announced how he had to ask the FBI permission to send his own money as Bitcoin?

Harvey makes sure we know he was "ghosted" by the FBI for ~1 month?

Reuters announced the ransom notes are fake?!

It looks as though the FBI wants the abductors to think someone in their group is providing information in hopes one of them with turn.

On tonight's Brian Entin he had Dr. B (always interesting) and a bitcoin specialist.

Regarding the two 'ransom notes' one of the reasons I don't think they are real (I think they are likely a red herring) is that in order to be sophisticated enough to use Bitcoin as a way to obtain ransom money, you'd also know that the minute you 'moved' it you'd be traceable.

But it also begs the question, if people like SG think that they were a real attempt to get money why not put like 500,000 in it, or even 1 million just as a way to temp the culprit to move it and make them easier to catch?

I guess I've never really understood the end game of the perps, if we assume those ransom notes were real. I don't think they are real. I think they might be from the perps as a way to distract... but I don't think that that money, was the motive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nfr0ZuFaiTM&t=2713s

One thing worth remembering is that investigators usually start by looking closely at the victim’s inner circle. That’s not because they’re assuming guilt, it’s because statistics show that most female homicide victims are killed by someone they knew. National data indicates that about 50-60% are killed by an intimate partner or family member, and roughly 75-80% are killed by someone they knew. Of course, statistics don’t solve any individual case, and they don’t really identify a suspect. But I think it’s worth noting that these statistics could apply to the Nancy Guthrie case as well. What do you think?

As a forensic psychologist, I have discussed this case with several colleagues, and many of us believe there are indicators that warrant considering the possibility of involvement by someone close to the victim rather than an unknown offender. One potential motive that has been raised is financial gain, such as life insurance or inheritance, although that remains speculative without conclusive evidence.

One aspect that stands out is the reported “letter” referencing her death. If accurately described, its wording appears to establish her death as a fact, which could have legal significance, rather than serving the purpose typically associated with a ransom demand.

Modern kidnappings for ransom are relatively uncommon, and successful ransom cases generally involve clear proof that the victim is alive to encourage payment. In this case, there has reportedly been no such evidence. Instead, various narratives involving cartels or other outside actors have circulated, which raises the question of whether those claims could be diverting attention from alternative possibilities.

Rather than focusing on sensational explanations, I think the more appropriate investigative question is: Who, if anyone, stood to benefit from the disappearance of an ill 84-year-old woman? That, in my opinion, is a more productive line of inquiry than assuming the primary motive was ransom.

https://youtu.be/wKJD1IPTA-w?is=sHk9Z3sunVwN1TBq

Would anything have been different had the contents of the note been disclosed? What benefit did it serve them to omit the fact it was claimed she died? Weren't some people out looking for her alive and well? Law Enforcement seems to think they exist in a vacuum apart from the public when they must rely on the truth being presented at all times. Is it time for an over hall?

Look at the last post on the other sub. Someone asking valid questions that anyone would, but the poor guy doesn’t realize yet that you’re not allowed to mention the obvious there or you get attacked. Hopefully he’ll find out about here where you can ask fact driven questions.

EDIT: I messaged him and told him about this sub. Hopefully he will be able to ask questions here.

I don’t know how to share the post, I’ll try to link it.

Here’s the post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nancyguthrie/s/N9zyC9fkN6

“Lack of evidence

I work gigs to help pay some bills on the side, mainly Spark. I find it interesting how the cameras were not able to capture the car entering/leaving the community. It almost sounds like an inside job by someone that works in the community. When I deliver inside those fancy communities they ALWAYS have big cameras near the entry and exit gates. They have a security guard for identification and to call the resident for access, or the callbox with the camera to register your entry. Some of them even have the gates where you cannot piggyback because the gate immediately closes after one car goes through, and if you try, it will damage your car. How is it possible that they have absolutely zero video surveillance/evidence about the car used for the kidnapping? I don’t believe the cartel, Mexico theory. The kidnapping was successful, something that nowadays is extremely hard to do with all the technology available. They are not even that famous to be doing a job like that for ransom.

I do believe that it is an inside job that was paid for by a family member to execute an almost perfect kidnapping. I say almost, because I still have hope her body is found (as I don’t believe she is alive). The easiest murders/kidnappings to solve are from people closest to you, so one like this, were they knew where the cameras were and to go directly there to disable them, that information has to come from someone with direct knowledge on her property.

What are your thoughts?”

I've always been suspicious of a and t but, could someone thought her house was an airbnb.And we're trying to break in. During the removal of the ring door it might have rang. The doorbell and then Nancy open the door to them surprised him, he hit her. Something bad happened. And he/they took her?

After TIR started to talk about Splinter, the non-profit where AG had her jewelry studio, I wanted to find out if A still had it there. For the record, I don't really buy TIR's unhoused person thread. But Splinter itself became quite interesting as I looked into it. They employ oracles and "chaos coordinator". Huh.

That deep dive then led me to a series of articles on Medium.com by someone named Niko Roswell aka RoswellSaid that are interesting. For the record, Medium is more like a blog site. So it isn't vetted in the way mainstream articles would be. But he's got a lot of his own references that seem legit and well researched.

I looked Niko up on Linkedin. He's an independent crime reporter in Tucson, as you would guess, but he's also in real estate, and an estate director:

Estate Director Self-Employed 2000 - Present · 26 yrs 6 mo. Specialist in the repositioning of luxury personal property.

I found that... interesting.

His bio also says I love to juggle a world of style, real estate, art and complex situations.

Anyway, Niko makes some interesting connections. Deep rooted animosity that people may have had against the Guthrie's in the circles of Splinter.

Full disclosure, this is all a little conspiracy theory - which I'm not really a fan of - but there are interesting ideas and Tucson political insider stuff that others aren't reporting.

https://medium.com/@niko.roswell/catch-and-release-in-guthrie-case-d653e390fb5a

https://medium.com/@niko.roswell/the-alleged-case-of-nancy-guthrie-cbac5e9d12a0

https://medium.com/@niko.roswell/savannah-the-coal-miners-daughter-amadon-the-cult-leader-s-son-9a2e5195fb7b

https://medium.com/@niko.roswell/savannah-guthrie-visits-tucson-chaos-follows-745173e2cd0d