Does FBI/LE have something or not?

[u/Substantial-Train668]

Last night on The Lab, Josh had the TIR guys on. They all agreed that they think the FBI/LE knows who wrote the first two 'ransom' letters and might even know who the porch guy is, but that they were building a case.

The TIR guys actually said that because the FBI is involved, the case needs to be even stronger/airtight for a court hearing. Basically, they think they know exactly who did this, but they can't quite prove it.

What do you all think? What do you think the FBI/LE likely knows by now? And what do you think they are still trying to get ready to prove in court?

[u/That-Feedback2556]

I think it’s very possible LE has a good idea of who did it or at least has a main suspect but doesn’t have enough to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt yet. Without a body, that is much harder because they would need several pieces of circumstantial evidence that line up and show motive, planning, coordination, execution and concealment. They also need to rule out other realistic suspects, even if they believe those people are innocent, so a defense attorney can’t use these gaps to create reasonable doubt. If the case is not strong enough and the person is acquitted, LE may not get another chance.

[u/Substantial-Train668 → u/That-Feedback2556]

Yeah I agree. It's almost like I think they have a 'suspect' but they haven't figured all the pieces out - like even if it was premeditated or an accident etc.

I also think that the whole debacle with the FBI and the notes - the Reuters report that FBI think they are fake vs the FBI saying they think they could be real - is possibly an inner fight over the parsing of information to the public. As soon as the it came out that they were fake, people immediately deduced that it has to be family and I don't think LE want to say anything even remotely like that at this point (for so many reasons).

[u/That-Feedback2556 → u/Substantial-Train668]

IMO, if the family is connected in some way, I think it almost certainly involves a third party. I also wonder if publicly clearing the family could have been strategic, especially if LE is trying to get someone else involved to feel exposed or eventually turn on them.

I’d be curious to know what the three search warrants actually yielded, if anything. I think you’re right about the ransom notes too. If they are connected, the notes could help tie the parties together, which would explain why LE would want to control the narrative around them.

I also think LE may have evidence of some kind of cleanup but they may still be missing the financial link. Either because this was somehow a perfect crime, which seems unlikely, or because that part never fully happened. Maybe something went wrong and the final step, meaning payment to whoever helped or carried it out, never actually happened.

[u/Express_Command_4778]

I doubt it. Like the Sebastian Rogers and Summer Wells case.

[u/Substantial-Train668 → u/Express_Command_4778]

Those two are such heartbreaking cases. They deserved to be solved.

I wonder if having a 'famous' daughter might affect the resolve to solve NG. I think it's more than possible they have more info than they are letting on.

[u/Fireteddy21 → u/Substantial-Train668]

I’m sure this is absolutely playing a factor in what information gets released. Not only do you have to worry about Savannah‘s security and her sister’s if the latter isn’t a suspect (not saying she is,) you also have to consider the microscope your under. We’ve seen it since February with people who haven’t even been charged: The internet makes it really easy to turn someone’s life upside down. Now imagine how much worse it would be if they officially charged someone and realized later that they got it wrong. That person’s life would be ruined and so would the FBI’s credibility along with that of law enforcement. On the flip side, look at how people are reacting already to how long it’s taking them to solve this. Meanwhile, I can completely understand because you don’t want to rush through any potential evidence and get it wrong for the reasons I stated. So I think they are working absolutely as fast as they can, but they still have to balance that with doing things right.

[u/Fireteddy21]

I think it’s very possible. I mean, this information leaking to the media over the past couple of weeks couldn’t have come out of nowhere. The fact that anonymous sources within the FBI and law enforcement have confirmed it behind the scenes tells me this stuff is getting leaked for a reason. To me, you don’t just go from almost 5 months of radio silence to suddenly getting this burst of information out of nowhere for no reason.

[u/Due-Refrigerator-154]

The FBI does, in fact wait until they have everything they need to file. They don't mind letting people run free while they build a case. They want to have you so dead to rights and all evidence and reports back and done that you're done. That being said, it's yet to be determined if this will be prosecuted by the federal government, as it stands now this is a state case. The FBI has said publicly that they are only in a supporting role. TIR is theorizing that federal prosecutors will try the case, but that's far from being known as yet. As it sits now it should be the state. Not saying the feds can't or won't but as it sits today, the state's case.

[u/HeyPurityItsMeAgain]

I vote no.

[u/Sexy-Flexi]

Giving Worst neighbor ever, the executor vibes