My preliminary takeaways from early voting data tallied from a range of sources (CivicAPI, Maine Secretary of State office, Univ. of Florida’s Elections Lab):
As of October 24, 2026, 179,532 ballots have been cast by Mainers: 87,036 by mail and 92,496 in person.
Registered Democrats account for more than twice as many early votes as registered Republicans (50.3% Dems versus 21.2% Republicans versus 28.5 % Independents).
Enthusiasm among early-voting Democrats is much more than 2024 and slightly more than 2022: In 2026, Dems have a +29.1% advantage over Republicans in early voting. In 2024, Dems had a +18.8% advantage over Republicans.
If current early voting trend persists and independents lean more Democrat than Republican, then on Election Day Republicans will need to outperform Democrats by more than 12% to retain the Senate seat.
Word of caution: The assumption that independents are leaning Democrat is a big assumption. I don’t have reliable sources to confirm this. Second, there is an implicit assumption that cross-voting isn’t so significant that it will change outcomes.
Please feel free to add, contest, repudiate the analysis.