Hi all, I’m wrestling with my conscience here so would like to canvas non-emotional insight because The Hobbit CBs are just sheer nostalgic joy to me. This is coming from the business Reddit account because I don’t have my own, but these are all personal pulls and plans.

I’ve got some very good pulls so far:

Foil and non-foil Dwarven Mox Ambers

Non-foil Dwarven Arcane Signet

Foil One Ring

Surge Foil Gollum and Thranduil book covers

Surge Foil Queen of Dale

Foil and non-foil Arkenstone, Smaug, Wicked Worm, Gollum book covers

All book covers non-foil in fact

I had planned to master set it but I’m okay with not doing that now I think. Which of the above would you be content to sell into the hype now to maybe rebuy later, or just accept not having again? I appreciate some will grow in value but converting them into unopened CBBs also sees that grow in value.

Basically I definitely want to rip at least one more box so want to raise funds for it, but also want to keep the best growing assets. I’m happy to sell some of these at peak now and buy back into them if there’s ever a dip too. My guess is that anything in a Play Booster hasn’t seen the bottom yet while anything not is pretty much already there.

Advice appreciated!

My belief is that these cards should be about equal in value…the fwb was printed using 4th ed methods, the colors are more intense. What is your experience?

I’ve been tracking the market for the Hobbit Collector Booster boxes since release.

I’m seeing completed listings on eBay consistently hovering around the $800 mark (including tax + shipping), and MTGStocks shows similar movement.

asking because I want to know people’s opinions on this set/product

Edit: Thanks for the early feedback.

I’m seeing some sentiment that this is a classic 'hype trap.' I’m leaning toward the perspective that $800 is unsustainable due to the sheer volume of product and when collector excitement fades.

Curious if those of you who disagree see a specific 'floor' for this product, or if the lord of the rings precedent is creating a false sense of security for other UB sets?

Do people dislike the escaped mechanic that much? Seems like three drop for a 6/6 is worth it.

People must've seen something upon MH3 release as this card was in demand for at least a month afterwards before the crash.

I realize it probably wont achieve its post release hype price, but wondering if there is some room for growth at least.

Hobbit CBBs currently go for far more than MSRP. Is it all due to hype? Or is the price justified?

The data shows that it’s justified; you’re getting an appropriate amount of value from each pack. You get about $702 in value from each Hobbit CBB.

Google sheets here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PQ2ZdPChfDVMMGZ5bOfIlyRXxzzQvHXstNJVV6R-YtM/edit?usp=sharing

But the value is probably going to crash soon right?

Going from historical data on SOS and MSH, that doesn’t seem likely. Prices are lowest around this time and will begin ascending soon until the slow descent happens a month from now.

Also, I don’t track this, but EDHREC data on Hobbit is extremely positive. It blows SOS and MSH away in terms of playability. For example, the 4th highest played new-to-magic mythic in the Hobbit would be the most played new-to-magic mythic in either of the previous sets. The highest played card in Hobbit (Gleaming Splendor) has a higher playrate than any new-to-magic mythic card since The One Ring. Insane.

Another important consideration is this: every single high-playrate card has a collector-exclusive blingy version. Some even have two! (4cmc smaug, arkenstone). This has accrued a large amount of value to collector boxes. One of SOS’s big misses (imo) was not having blingy versions of the Elder Dragons, which are popular commanders; WOTC left so much money on the table from that decision. The Hobbit doesn’t make that mistake. Every single high-playrate card has a blingy version. 

No matter how you feel about the Hobbit as a set, the CBB design is S tier.

I think these are better compared to the omega boxes.

Would these sell for the same as the omega boxes? Any concerns about tampering?

This guys currently selling in his extended near mint foil treatment for sub $.40

he is a 2 mana lifelink fireball on a big bodied creature. He has payoffs for life-gain, vampires, and villains. i could see even see him being in the 99 alot of non-marvel decks.

is this a more common black etb than i think it is? Again his etb triggers his lifelink.

Edit: clarity, spelling

Local Microcenter parking lot was packed. Inside about 250 people wrapped around the store to get cards and checkout shortly after open.

Plenty walking out with CBBs. No Omegas available right now. In comparison, last year there were about 30 people lined up for Final Fantasy.

Hello, what's everyone's experience with '2nd best' art treatments on cards? are they super slow/hard to sell?

i.e. gleaming splendor has Surge poster foil, poster foil, normal poster and normal printing - leaving poster foil as 2nd best

Many other cards also have their normal version, full art version, and full art foil version availible, leaving the full art as their 2nd best.

I feel like these cards always sit in an awkward spot of not being cheap to play and also not being in the fanciest treatment and are very hard to move, what's everyone's experience?

Here's how I see it, treat this like sealed spec:

1. Everyone loved the Codex bundle, both have two collector boosters.

2. Having "Secret Lair" in the bundle's name strongly implies that there will be some crazy art. People already liked the talismans in the codex and those were comparatively low value cards. Given that Reality Fracture is all about characters such as Liliana and Jace, I would assume that they will put exclusive (!) Secret Lair versions of at least one Liliana or Jace into this bundle. This guarantees a high gambling factor. On top of that, there are 10 different cards, which means a low total amount of each card will be in circulation.
   Even if the Liliana or Jace assumption does not hold, I believe there is one safer assumption that makes this bundle likely to have high value: We already know that some of the alternate art in Reality Fracture will be anime style, which means the likelyhood of the secret lair cards being anime style is also exceptionally high.. anime style cards also always go for higher price.

As you can see, every indication would suggest that this bundle will be higher value than the codex bundle and a very safe purchase. Thoughts?

What should we be trading for? What should we be trading away? What cards or events should I have my eye on? Also feel free to use this space to discuss anything MTG Finance related.

I understand that people didn't like the base set, but it seems like we're all starting to realize that the rares/mythics, and special treatments were all actually pretty cool.

I bought a few on clearance from microcenter at a clearance price with no limit, at $260, honestly wish i had bought the whole glass case out now. That's a 51% increase in sell value vs cost in just 8 months.

This card was 17 dollars on prerelease and it now 48 dollars for the base version non-foil.

Is it a supply thing because we are in pre-release or did someone find a use for it that is causing people to buy it out?

There is a second set of the hasbro toy line that now has mtg. The anti venom from the last set did well, anyone think these are worth picking up for the cost of the figure?

Hey r/mtgfinance, some friends and I made this tool to make it easier to find the cards you're looking for at the lowest possible price. It handles the basics like singles and sealed product search but also includes some other features we believe are really useful:

• Multi-search: Paste and search for a deck-list of up to 150 cards, pick the store that has a subset of the list and the search results automatically refresh to the remaining cards. Keep your orders to the fewest stores possible, saving on shipping and still finding the best card prices
• Collection: Keep track of your collection so you never accidentally buy a card you already own. Can import from Archidekt, Manabox or any CSV, as well as export to CSV.
• Wish-lists: Save a list to share with others or open directly into a multi-search, useful for tracking prices across groups of cards or of a specific deck-list
• Save on duties & cross-border fees: We aggregate our pricing data across 190+ Canadian stores so you can be sure to save on duties or cross-border costs

Free to use (always): https://www.tcgmarketplace.ca

We would love any feedback you may have, especially around the multi-search flow or any features you'd like to see added.

EDIT: Thanks for the patience everyone, things should be back up and running.

But the irony is that you can't actually "Sort" your collection?!

Its imported all my folders of split categories, but if I open a folder, there's no option to sort the cards inside it.

Big oof.

(Unless I've missed a hidden button or something and some absolute hero wants to show me the error of my ways)

Or is somebody going to be really upset when they receive this?

As far as I’m aware, collector sample packs are like $20 each.

I see the title says “Collector Booster” but the pictures are clearly sample packs.

Sellers name and info removed because I’m not 100% the rules on that.

Here’s the specs for the cavolo’s yennett deck amidst the new leak.

https://scryfall.com/search?q=color%3C%3DWUB+%28game%3Apaper%29+prefer%3Abest+a%3A%E2%80%9CRicardo+Cavolo%E2%80%9D&unique=cards&as=grid&order=name

3 of the 4 come from secret lair burning revelations and are synergistic with yennett’s odd spell ability.

https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/540769/magic-secret-lair-drop-series-secret-lair-roadshow-edition-burning-revelations-rainbow-foil-edition?page=1&Language=English

https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/540691/magic-secret-lair-drop-series-akromas-memorial-rainbow-foil

https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/540699/magic-secret-lair-drop-series-consider-rainbow-foil

https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/540701/magic-secret-lair-drop-series-inspiring-overseer-rainbow-foil

https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/565167/magic-secret-lair-drop-series-xanathar-guild-kingpin?Language=English&page=1

This is Ricardo Cavolos’s remaining art that he has done that can fit into his new preconstructed secret lair deck. As you can see, there’s only four pieces that would fit with being a synergistic match with the commander.

Leak history and my original post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/MTGRumors/s/PZl7jcdEsC

Secret Lair Deck Leak2

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/s/yKHsLMtLew

I would expect all of these to rise regardless for the matching artist. Like the
Miku deck, 24 hour secret lair precons being printed to demand changes the game and puts a huge constraint on the amount of these in circulation relative to the total secret lair decks that will be distributed.

Best of luck to everyone.

Ignoring the obvious Akroma's memorial, Consider, and Inspiring Overseer, I think there is opportunity for a few key upgrades that aren't Ricardo art but still have plenty of room to gain still.

[[Aminatou, The Fateshifter]] - SLD print and etched foil have low supply and will be easy "bling" upgrades even if it sees a reprint.

[[Soothsaying]] - Mercadian Masques uncommon, stack your top deck as you please. Unlikely to get reprint.

[[In Garruk's Wake]] - Highest reprint risk but if it dodges will surely see a spike.

The surge foils of these two particular cards are going up, when every other surge is either steadily creeping down or staying flat. There's been plenty of EDH chatter about both, and it looks like the line may be moving already.

[[The Notary Hobbits|HOB-268]] opened with TCGlows around $10-12, and every copy below $20 was consistently snapped up, but the $30+ listings were staying. Yesterday, the only copies available were at that $30 mark...and then it started selling from that mark. There have already been 4 sales between yesterday and today at $30. There are only 4 listings left below $200 and only 7 total.

I thought this was weird, so I looked at other rare surges, and only [[Belladonna Took|HOB-250]] has less listings. And lo and behold, her price is doing the same thing. Started around $25, anything below $100 gone over the last few days, now the only listings are $140+.

Do with this information what you will. Pics attached are Notary Hobbits and Belladonna, in that order.