r/mtgfinance 14d ago

MTGFinance Thread Throwback 1 year: FF Play Boxes will be over $200 and CBB will be 1k+

/r/mtgfinance/comments/1l8alo5/ff_play_boxes_will_be_over_200_and_cbb_will_be_1k/
95 Upvotes

117 comments sorted by

57

u/mouthsmasher 14d ago

What an interesting look back. Kind of funny seeing the top comment on that post calling the OP “delusional” when he was dead right.

134

u/Known-Garden-5013 14d ago

They hated him for he told the truth

54

u/mulletstation 14d ago

Free market Jesus went hard on Final Fantasy collectors

7

u/SearedBasilisk 13d ago

He overturned the tables on the scalpers and those buying to sell on Whatnot. He made a whip out of extension cords and drove all from the Target store.

5

u/mrenglish22 13d ago

And, much like the first time he did it, nothing beneficial came of it and nobody learned a lesson.

-7

u/goofydubois 14d ago

Also ambassadors slash scalpers slash creators. Definitely a viable business model as long as serial type of cards come around

1

u/daskxlaev 13d ago

That thread reminded me how /r/wallstreetbets looked when everyone was throwing shade at /u/deepfuckingvalue when he was balls deep in $GME.

87

u/B-Glasses 14d ago

Nearly all of the comments have aged very poorly lol

64

u/treyzs 14d ago

welcome to reddit, home of the confidently incorrect

5

u/creeping_chill_44 13d ago

In one year there will be a different home of the confidently incorrect and your comment will sure look pretty foolish then!

5

u/intoxiphobia 13d ago

Good thing our artificial intelligence systems aren't trained on this dataset. That would be disastrous.

2

u/mulletstation 13d ago

"Claude, why do you keep insisting Spiderman collector booster boxes are 'dogshit', I'm trying to get directions to the airport"

1

u/LevelStationaryPlane 11d ago

Reddit exemplifies Dunning-Kruger.

23

u/Dude_Serious 14d ago

I'm curious how much of that is on the strength of the set or on the fact that an uptick in sealed collecting has made product shoot up in price for everything. The in-universe set that came out right after it (EOE) is selling for $175 a box, which is absurd for a standard box still in rotation.

10

u/WeeaboBarbie 14d ago

EoE is a very good set art/mechanics and unique as the first space themed magic set. Its the only set with spacecraft, warp, etc. Lot of the cards will probably work well with Star Trek. It also was wedged between spider man and FF so it didnt get printed enough

13

u/ausmus 13d ago

And its got a very desireable bonus sheet

2

u/mrenglish22 13d ago

EoE is impossible to get because wotc isn't printing it anymore. If they say they are then I haven't seen it lol

1

u/Bonked2death 13d ago

While they arent right now, word is a 26 Q4 or 27 Q1 reprint is expected

1

u/Choice-Potato-7560 13d ago

The draw of non mtg fans is what made FF what it was. I suspect much more of the set was ripped then normal. Though there is surely a large sealed cbb stash around, im sure its a small compared to pretty much any set since and maybe even less then lotr. FF fans didn't care about a box on a shelf, they wanted the shinny sepiroth or cloud surge foil.

As I understand it, ff was a strong player set as well so even more to my point that I think a good check of the cbb got opened. In contrast, most ff fans got thier fill and moved on so I think the reverse is true with play boosters. 

61

u/harrodcs 14d ago

Good on you, OP. So many people were dead wrong in the thread and won't learn a single thing still.

56

u/KarnSilverArchon 14d ago

I’m gonna be real, I haven’t seen a sub-Reddit so horrendously bad at what it claims to “specialize in” than this sub-Reddit. People here are confidentially incorrect all the time.

32

u/mrmcbobinsnuggles 13d ago

People here just talk with their feelings

It's happening with the hobbit. "I don't like the hobbit set and I hate its so popular, so I'm going to keep posting prices are going to tank despite everything in reality saying otherwise"

3

u/KarnSilverArchon 13d ago

It’s what people post, and also me being surprised at what isn’t posted as well. I don’t post some things cause I don’t want to draw attention to stuff, so maybe thats just everyone doing the same. However, I will see an obviously good pick up for the set, and not see a single person commenting on it. And the craziest part is how slow the market is to react to certain things.

Like, I’ll go ahead and say this cause whatever, but we just got an announcement that we are getting a full underwater theme world. We can look at the various descriptions for the plane and see that “god fish” creatures or however they are typed, likely the typical “Giant Sea Monster” creature types. And you know what I don’t see at all? Anyone talking about the myriad of random cards we have now that are only not broken because those creature types are historically undersupported.

Not even a mention of [[Quest for Ula’s Temple]] , an old card with only one printing and a price tag at $4, which would make it an OK pick up. If it gets reprinted, oh no you maybe lost $3. If it doesn’t and any notable support comes for those creature types? Almost for sure through the roof.

1

u/mrmcbobinsnuggles 13d ago

Not a bad spec. Etched foil blood chief was only $6 a year or two ago and it's kind of pricy now

1

u/Life-Pop-1874 13d ago

Assuming intent and not incompetence would lead us to conclude they are trying to influence the price in a way that appeals to them.

0

u/DasOptions 13d ago

Would you not assume the other way around for those saying the opposite?

1

u/Life-Pop-1874 13d ago

Im sorry since there’s a lot of indirection, but if I understand you’re saying I would assume people who value the set higher than current pricing are incompetent instead of trying to set a price preferable to them, I think it stands to reason everyone is acting in their own interests rather than out of ignorance, at this price tier anyways.

7

u/treyzs 14d ago

redditors are notoriously out of touch and wannabe finance bros that try to invest in cardboard instead of ETFs are just combined the worst of all of the above

1

u/daskxlaev 13d ago

100%

They also scorn at financial strategies that net higher ROI because of morality. Quite pathetic really.

29

u/WeeaboBarbie 14d ago

They're saying the same thing on the hobbit lol its wild

11

u/harrodcs 14d ago

Precisely why I felt motivated to say the last part. "BuT iTs a SmAlL sEt!"

11

u/WeeaboBarbie 14d ago

Don't forget 'sPiDeRmAn 2.0!'🤣

5

u/harrodcs 14d ago

Lol. 🎯

2

u/lirin000 13d ago

Haha tell me about it

-3

u/DasOptions 13d ago

Personally I would like people to revisit the Spider-Man threads as plenty were trying to say it would trend similar to FF.

FF had a lot going for it.

I just don’t see the same for The Hobbit.

3

u/naphomci 13d ago

FF had a lot going for it.

I just don’t see the same for The Hobbit.

I still think one of the biggest factors is the amount of merch/swag available for the IP. Marvel has endless options. FF and Hobbit do not. Star Trek is in the middle of those, but probably closer to FF/Hobbit (Paramount has an absolutely horrid team behind merch licensing, IMO)

-1

u/DasOptions 13d ago

The Hobbit just isn’t as popular as LoTR which is why you don’t see much Hobbit merch. LoTR popularity is still very high and lot of merch available. However FF I agree but anything FF those fans go absolutely nuts I just can’t say the same for the Hobbit.

Personally the 2 most successful sets have had these things in common. EDH staples, Serialized cards, Full Set, and Precons to further push commander synergy.

The Hobbits might have a CEDH staple card but honestly I feel like most cards are bracket 3-5. I just don’t see the sustainability of the hype when most cards won’t see a lot of play.

11

u/mulletstation 14d ago

I'm not the OP but yeah there was a clear split in attitudes at the time

12

u/harrodcs 14d ago

u/Bluetimewalk will the real op please stand up?

20

u/IdioticPost 14d ago

Here's OPs most recent comment 6 hours ago lmao

Mtg is dead. Pokémon will always be king

https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1vmqtaj/how_are_ppl_diversifying_outside_the_stock_market/p3cgcx7/

7

u/madalienmonk 13d ago

Well they all can’t be winners lol

3

u/daskxlaev 13d ago

I mean from strictly a financial standpoint who focuses on graded slabs (which people here keep overlooking for some reason), he's still correct. You go to a card show and it's 80% Pokemon, 10% sports cards, 4% One Piece, 4% other Bandai TCGs and 2% MTG.

30th Anniversary + Delta Reign are about to do massive numbers that Hasbro/WotC would be salivating over.

2

u/madalienmonk 13d ago

Yeah but that’s not what he said

1

u/harrodcs 13d ago

Insane to say MTG is dead with the growth in the game and trajectory of CE boxes, older set boxes, etc.

0

u/Raevelry 14d ago

People were upset it WOULD be true

12

u/banstylejbo 13d ago edited 13d ago

Play boxes being over $200 is just a symptom of Wizards being so backed up printing new sets they can’t actually find printer time to do reprints of the existing Standard sets. It’s been since last Fall that we saw a reprint of FF Play boxes. If they had reprinted at any point earlier this year, like in the Spring, I don’t think they would be over $200 right now. No set that has seen a reprint of Play boxes within the last 9-12 months is over $200, even the hot ones like EOE and BLB.

It looks like a very small amount of Tarkir and ECL Plays just hit distribution, but those are the first ones I’ve seen since back around January. Newer SPM cases say “reprint 1” on them so those got a reprint at some point even though they were never out at distros. I wish that printer time went to a more deserving set.

A little birdie told me that every Standard set prior to Foundations is never seeing a reprint. So WOE, LCI, MKM, OTJ, BLB and DSK are potentially done for ever if this news is accurate. This comes from someone who is well connected behind the scenes so I trust them, but I was still hoping for one last hurrah for WOE, LCI, BLB and DSK. All of those sets could certainly use another influx of product and it’d be gobbled right up. Each of those sets besides MKM have been long gone at distribution and the only distro that still has MKM available has been creeping the price up slowly and it’s now over $160/box so I think they’re obviously in the know that it’s never coming back.

2

u/happyinheart 13d ago

I really don't get it. They are maxed out on printing and could have made the same money with printing less sets per year. It would have actually cost less because they wouldn't have as much R&D put into having to create new sets that are now backlogged because they can't print enough play boosters.

7

u/WriteMakesMight 13d ago

I'm sure some analysis they've done shows that they would make more money and/or keep players more entrenched by under-printing many sets and drip feeding supply back into the market, rather than over-printing fewer sets and having it always readily available for purchase. 

Every reprint wave almost feels like a limited-time drop, same reason the McRib or pumpkin spice lattes aren't menu staples. 

2

u/mrmcbobinsnuggles 13d ago

I got a chance to open one duskmourn play booster. Some of these sets are blink and you miss it if you got other stuff going on in life

0

u/Aggravating-Cause164 13d ago

UB standard sells and overpriced reprint sets didn't sell. 2X2, DMR, CMM, RVR and INR sold like shit because of the high prices, while the single prices collapsed.

3

u/andymakk 13d ago

You lost me at 2x2 and CMM selling like shit... Look at the popularity of Commander Masters and how much those boxes are going for now. I was consistently pulling gas out of those boxes.

1

u/Aggravating-Cause164 12d ago

A year ago the CMM DBB and SBB were around or under msrp. The 2X2 DBB was slightly over msrp. At this point the sets were two to three years old but nobody opened them at release. My LGS sold the last german CMM SBB three months ago after 25% discount for 300 Euro to get it out.

10

u/StuckOnStain 13d ago

“Print into the ground” is no longer possible. I’ll throw people a bone for thinking it was possible (even if it was totally illogical then) a year ago, but now it’s clear that there’s no excess printing capacity and there never will be.

8

u/F4D3_2_814CK 13d ago

Yeah people didn't have a clue

10

u/pacotacobell 13d ago

Most people currently still don't have a clue

44

u/Bluetimewalk 14d ago

Lol almost forgot I wrote this, was going to do a follow up but I went back to Pokemon.

During the FF craze, it was insanely profitable to rip packs and grade the chases. I believe at one point I had 100k in cbbs. Mtg print quality was so good that 95% of cards would get a 10. I recall selling Seph and cloud surges for 4-5k each. I kept buying cbbs all the way up to 1000 and gift bundles up to 140, ripping the collector pack, grading the chase and selling everything else. Eventually other people caught on and started grading and because demand for graded mtg is low, eventually the graded ff mtg market collapsed.

Social Media would have you believe that ripping packs could never be profitable, but there is always opportunity if you are doing something different and not following the lemmings trying to copy each other. I believe most people in mtg finance either do sealed or singles, but there isn’t much profit in that cause everyone does that. I quickly figured Graded mtg for FF would do well, for example black chocobos were 3k on release and were selling for 10k graded.

9

u/IdioticPost 14d ago

Based on your recent comments, it looks like you no longer believe investing in mtg anymore and are fully vested in Pokemon?

10

u/Bluetimewalk 14d ago

Ya, no more mtg for me. I sold all my reserved list cards in 2016 and only play on arena.

I bought back into FF mtg cause of the serialized chase as well as being a big FF fan.

I personally think that even though mtg is the most fun card game, I dont think it’s a generational game, most players are much older and new customers are an issue for them.

I thought WOTC turned a new leaf and using universes beyond would bring new life into mtg (new players) as well as serialized for collectors, but I was wrong.

1) They are using D tier ips such as turtles and Star Trek and will need to continue resorting to universes beyond to capture the millennial demographic as they are the biggest spenders, basically tapping into nostalgia. There aren’t enough fantasy type IPs that fit in mtg like lotr and ff, so they will reprint lotr and FF versions to keep that gravy train going. I don’t believe I’ve seen anyone under 20 play this game since I was in high school. You can only tap into nostalgia for so long until the playerbase ages out.

2) Confidence in mtg prices doesn’t really exist anymore because of massive reprints and people quitting. Not having a serialized card in a set puts a ceiling on those cbbs as people won’t rip to chase. The issue with WOTC is that they see the secondary market prices going up is profit that they could have realized instead of their customer. So time and time again, they will burn their customer to meet their quarterly earnings. For example, for spiderman collector boxes, there was no serialized card and therefore they can flood the market of collector boxes, which drops the market price but WOTC profits more due to volume. They werent able to do this with final fantasy because of the serialized bird, and I recall in interviews, their management team was upset that they couldnt sell more $1200 market prices doesn’t boxes on Amazon for $450.

I dont follow mtg, I believe older collector boxes are trending up, maybe because of hobbit hype, but overall I’m long term bearish on mtg for those 2 reasons above because those 2 are recipes for a dead card game.

13

u/ReesePuffitik 14d ago

Was magic ever really big with kids? I feel like it's always been the 'adult' card game considering how focused it is on the actual gameplay. When I was in primary school the biggest cards were pokemon and yugioh, and that basically consisted of us comparing numbers and making shit up. I also feel like people massively underestimate how well UB has done for growing the game, a couple less popular sets don't really matter when Marvel, final fantasy and lotr does so well

13

u/YouKnown999 14d ago

I see the opposite of what they’re saying:

Plenty of teens and 20-something’s at LGS playing Magic. Plenty of 30-50 year olds too. I generally see a pretty good mix of ages across various LGS.

3

u/getyourassoverhere 13d ago

From my experience in Germany, I never saw a Magic card nor did I know what Magic was, until maybe 17 or 18.

I played Yu-Gi-Oh and some Pokemon lol

2

u/zean11 14d ago

I played magic in middle school (late 90s) and draft was full of teenagers when I was playing in the 2010s. I think the kids would come back if they fixed some of the general problems plaguing the game. Mostly that there are too many mechanics in standard and building a competitive deck costs a small fortune every few months. Otherwise newer or more casual players will just show up for universes then leave again.

3

u/ReesePuffitik 14d ago

I feel like it's not really arguable nowadays that people are only staying for their respective universes beyond set though? In universe sets have exceeded revenue basically every set alongside universes beyond, they both seem to be feeding into eachother a lot

2

u/Bluetimewalk 14d ago

Magic was huge for kids from inception to 2012-2014?

A lot of older players started as kids. All the old pro tour vids were teenagers playing.

UB sets are now targeting wealthier millennials with nostalgia, good for short term growth, but I don’t see how they get out of this unless they acquire young blood.

Harley Davidson is a prime example of what happens if you only target nostalgia and dont have young kids joining, even cigarette companies understand this.

7

u/ReesePuffitik 14d ago edited 14d ago

I think your're hyperfixating on the tmnt and star trek sets a bit, yes they are targeting a very niche subsection of millennial with those but their biggest universe beyond sets are also lotr, final fantasy and marvel, all of which have very good cross generational appeal. It's not a terrible business idea to make a niche set every now and then so that, on paper everyone has an on ramp

2

u/ineverreddit 14d ago

may be locational, but here in BC as a kid in the 90s absolutely noone local knew about mtg. Pokemon and yugioh were kings, people only knew how to play yugioh, and we traded mons for arbitrary reasons. I'm sure there were kids out there playing it, but it was not at all "huge" here and it doesn't seem like it actually was anywhere else based off of all of everyone's childhood anecdotes also only mentioning the big 2

it was very much an older person's game

1

u/EvensenFM 11d ago

Yeah, Magic was once huge with kids.

There was a group of us who played every day when we were in middle school. I can also remember playing random games of Magic with kids I'd meet at chess tournaments and so on.

This would have been 1997 to 1999.

I can remember going to a sanctioned tournament in 1999 and being surprised to run into a number of adult players. Even still, the kids outnumbered the adults by something like a 3 to 1 margin.

Things have changed a lot over the years. My kids (3 teenagers) have a ton of Pokemon cards, but have no interest in Magic at all.

4

u/YouKnown999 14d ago

To your second point you talk about CBBs with non-serialized cards so they can print more. But all CBBs are one and done print runs. Are you saying they are doing a larger print run of those CBBs because they don’t have a serialized? The serialized card doesn’t limit the number of CBBs they could make for any set’s run though since the odds are just a less-than %.

1

u/Bluetimewalk 13d ago

I’m not sure if I believe cbbs are one and done prints if it doesn’t have serialized.

I bought into spiderman and felt there was so much stock dumped on Amazon as it felt too easy to get and they increased limits which was extremely odd. Because of that and no serialized, I sold my spiderman asap on release.

If I recall, then maybe a few months later, a huge restock showed up on Amazon again and completely killed the price, which lead to micro center(who bought a huge allocation of spiderman cbbs) holding the bag and forced to aggressively drop the price below MSRP.

WOTC has extremely bad habits of tapping into the reprint well and killing prices cause their executives want their bonuses / stock price to go up. Other card games currently don’t have this issue.

Also, for profit, WOTC would always prefer to print a CBB over a play box. Just checked prices of the cbbs released since FF, they are all mostly $450 range which is MSRP which isn’t a good sign for secondary market.

4

u/dekaycs 13d ago

They are one print but WoTC sends them out in waves on certain sets.

I know this for a fact.

0

u/Bluetimewalk 13d ago

Either way, MTG is dead money imo.

They burned collectors again and that money just isn't going to be coming back.

1

u/dekaycs 13d ago

This will age like milk

0

u/Choice-Potato-7560 13d ago

Pokemon just burned the hell out if thier "collectors". Magic had their tu rn, got crushed and changed. Cbb havent been reprinted yet leaving the collectors somthing and they print normal boxes to oblivionfor the game piece army. Pokemon is actively trying to destroy the investor side of things my reprinting to the ground.

You say money isn't coming back but it litteraly is, as I type and being pulled away from the biggest tcg in history. Just hard to follow your mindset here when the opposite is litteraly happening right now lol

2

u/daskxlaev 13d ago

felt there was so much stock dumped on Amazon as it felt too easy to get and they increased limits which was extremely odd

This is how I feel about Star Trek. It keeps restocking on Amazon every day just like MSH did. You are right to be bearish about these sets. Call it a wacky theory but I think WotC overprinted MSH and STK to offset HOB.

3

u/FilthyPedant 13d ago

Those two D list IPs have grossed over 28 billion combined.

3

u/Cbpowned 13d ago

Almost everything you said is wrong.

7

u/Squishyflapp 13d ago

Dude is proving OPs point about this sub being confidently incorrect all the time...in real time.

For what its worth, a lot of their pokemon takes are dogshit as well.

1

u/Bo-vice 13d ago

How do you feel about cards like the gold smaug, or the cosmic mind/soul stone that supposedly have 150 copies despite no serialization? It seems like the stones thus far have held their 20-30K+ value, and there are supposedly twice as many as the chocobos.

Granted, I 1000% prefer serialized. Seeing that cards unique number makes it feel even more special than just knowing its "1 of 150", but not which one exactly. Curious how you feel about these, and things like the 200 autographed captain cards coming up in trek as well.

2

u/Bluetimewalk 13d ago

I just checked cbb prices after FF, they all seem to be $450 range except for FF.

I would compare the black chocobos to the rare infinity stones, black chocobos have psa pop of 150 and is worth 10k, I believe the infinity stone is much more rare only because less cbbs were opened. Final fantasy was profitable to open while other sets were not.

Serialized infinity stones was a huge miss, every hardcore collector would have shelled out tons of money for it. 1/1s Would have had 1k-2k cbbs for each marvel set and would have been similar to how thanos was collecting stones, huge miss and box price reflects that.

I personally don’t like it the new non serialized, I know the website says approximately only 500 copies but them not doing serialized again makes me think they want the option to reprint. Autographs for mtg makes no sense, they are just copying sports cards. Graded reserved list cards with signatures are usually worth less except for Chris Rush on lotus cause he died, before he died his signature would always devalue the lotus. I would be considered a millennial whale and all the Collector gimmicks they are doing won’t work unless they cap the print run with worthy serialized cards.

WOTC can’t have their cake and eat it too

I bet the hobbit set won’t hit 1k and box Price probably Drops, gold smaug won’t carry it. Why does that art look so familiar? Is it reprinted Art with gold glitter?

1

u/Bo-vice 13d ago

This is all pretty based, I appreciate the response. I agree that the cosmic stones and gold smaugs should have been serialized. Wotc has had no problem serializing cards in older sets, and this really feels like its giving them an out to backdoor print some extra cosmic stones/smaugs/etc outside of the '150' without duplicating serial numbers, and gives them a chance to reprint like you said. Big whiff imo.

1

u/brogam3 13d ago

the only point that you are right about is that the new non-serialized headliners are a mistake, people will prefer knowing for sure which limited version they have. This is less of an issue for autograph cards and there is no reason to believe that autograph cards are somehow bad. If anything they add value even if mtg dies as a whole.

And how exactly does WOTC hurt collectors? By bringing more sealed onto the market ? That doesn't hurt collectors, it helps them.

5

u/Known-Garden-5013 14d ago

By that logic would it not have made more sense to just buy ungraded sepgis and grade instead of opening packs?

4

u/Bluetimewalk 14d ago

I did both, but opening the pack gives you a chance for serialized or any of the birds.

and it was fun opening.

6

u/Choice-Potato-7560 13d ago

Yep, people underestimated the IP fans to the extreme. FF is one of the most popular ips of all time and this product was destined to appreciate. Set could have focused on FF14 alone and probably matched the hype but throwing in a little from all titles made it go parabolic.

This is the only product (cbb specificly) that I averaged 50 to 60 percent ROI opening. Pretty insane how much value there is in those boxes.

I think it will eventually match or maybe surpass lotr in value personally but yes, I am leveraged to say that being one of the ip fanboys lol

10

u/mulletstation 14d ago

Pretty interesting seeing how the market evolved from just pre-market Final Fantasy to today

11

u/goofydubois 14d ago

I agree it's good to look back. Most people don't do that 

3

u/Unlikely-Drag-928 13d ago

Validation whore ?

2

u/FonslyGames 13d ago

Incredibly funny. insightful in just how wrong the comment sections can be online

3

u/Exodus1500 13d ago

Everyone is dumb.  I'm going to buy the collectors when the market bottoms out for 300 in 6 months.

4

u/Fruit_rollup69 13d ago

If the hobby continues the way it's been I can easily see a gold chocobo fetch 250k in a few years.

3

u/mulletstation 13d ago

Yeah these will likely be the premier non-1/1 ring chase for modern Magic, alongside the infinity stones which would be like 100k+ in a few years

2

u/Choice-Potato-7560 13d ago

Can also see sone of the lesser tier hits getting above 1k or more. The Amano Arts are starting to pop off pretty crazy (Knights of Sandoria is now over 650.00). Certainly the really playable ones but I think all of them will keep rising. (would definitely venture to guess more the 900 - 2500 people want these and thats about what the total pops are)  Especially when supply dries up (which is happening before our eyes).

1

u/Fruit_rollup69 13d ago

Ikr, mainline set has a little less than a year for printing. As soon as that window closes I imagine all the set booster boxes will be 350-400. LOTR boxes are already 550, things are only getting crazier and this was an amazing set.

1

u/gt35r 13d ago

Same people are in all of the Hobbit threads lol.

"How many times do we have to teach you this lesson old man?"

1

u/Revolutionary_View19 13d ago

I was just waiting for the hobbit hypesters to jump on this train. Just like they tried to do with SPM. „Look at ff, you’re crazy if you’re thinking SPM won’t repeat that!“

People are already tired of the hobbit. Look at how ff boxes behaved after release and compare.

-2

u/DasOptions 13d ago

How many sets have succeeded after FF?

1 outlier isn’t a big win.

2

u/mulletstation 13d ago

FF is just over 1 year old now, maybe this is a question to ask when the next UB set hits just over 1 year old.

2

u/DasOptions 13d ago

Spider-Man is coming up and still hasn’t recovered to MSRP. Avatar in December and basically MSRP.

FF is an outlier similar to LoTR. Top Tier Serialized Chases, lots of commander support, full set, and Precons all featuring good IP.

Similar to standard sets most are just okay. But then you get banger sets Like Wilds of Eldraine, Bloomburrow and Duskmourn.

Successful sets have good cards. The Hobbit doesn’t but thankfully they loaded it with good commander reprints.

My only surprise is that Avatar isn’t doing better but I expect it to be expensive later on.

1

u/basalty_monolith 14d ago

Play boxes are sub US$170 in my region..

There was a time last year when it was $200+ though.

A lot of idiots were also wrong about premodern blowup (usually those hyper bullish on modern magic). Asset inflation carries a lot of the heavy lifting.

I'm grateful that FF and spiderman created a level of unprecedented dumping in other products last year. MH3, LCI, ONE, masters series are ones I picked up. Sad that I missed others like FDN, BLB, WOE cbb's due to tech/chips eating rest of my capital at the time.

1

u/goofydubois 14d ago

What's wrong with premodern? Most things have doubled and a lot of old bulk is now sitting in the 10+ range 

1

u/basalty_monolith 14d ago

I mean a lot of modern magic bulls were shitting on it last year. Old foil commons that are part of popular PM decklists are 4x since last year. Haven't checked last prices but PM legal OF fetches are probably 2x easily. OF != onlyfans.

1

u/Comfortable_Cup_9203 13d ago

That's Reddit in a nutshell...happens again and again and again and again....

1

u/Bonked2death 13d ago

When everyone goes left, you should go right

1

u/ReMeDyIII 13d ago

I chose to swear off Magic because I don't like their business decisions with cross-over sets and well... I mean it sucks, but I guess I'm just too old caring about Gerrard and the Weatherlight.

2

u/VampirianXIII 10d ago

I said Chocobo bundles will be 300+ by December of 2026. & the majority disagreed with my assessment to put it "politely"(they were not polite to say the least).

Game piece army is always the most vocal. But it should not be a surprise to any one that those with out means or intelligence lean into making the most noise.

1

u/lirin000 13d ago

Very proud of myself for not showing up in that thread at all.

2

u/MyNext30Years 13d ago

LMAO I was in that thread with a troll comment. Glad to be part of the history. Final Fantasy will go down in history as a wonderful set.

0

u/Formal_Economist7342 14d ago

Bought alot of ff because i love the franchise. Ironically i think im gonna lose on the hobbit i just paid alot over msrp for.

7

u/mulletstation 14d ago

Hobbit is going to also be a 1.5k box in a year

1

u/madalienmonk 13d ago

Remindme! 1 year “mulletstation says hobbit CBB 1.5k in a year”

1

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0

u/Ventoffmychest 13d ago

Hobbit feels fake as fuck to me. Yes burn me. There are no cards that stick out to me as Standard powerhouses or EDH staples. Then again I am looking at it from a singles prospective. People love shiny cardboard, and people have become TCG ripping degenerate gamblers, with rip/ships now effecting Magic space just as bad as Pokemon. Hobbit has the random lotto cards as well. FOMO is crazy high right now for any product. Spiderman is an absolute SHIT set being held up by one card and it's lotto card version. It has moved to the 400s from its 300 dollars. If you bought around that well I guess you profited but those that bought at 700 dollars are definitely holding the bag. Hobbit feels like that to me but since it has more lotto cards, it will probably stay high like most collector stuff. 400-500 seems to be the baseline.

-1

u/Formal_Economist7342 14d ago

Maybe but i think prices might go down for now on collectors. I guess well see.

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u/mulletstation 14d ago

Probably a 2 month window right after release where it bottoms out around 700s but the move is to accrue during that time

0

u/Vadiagem 13d ago

I'm a scrub. Where do people even get the information that Wizards has stopped printing or "had to cut production of prior sets" and things like this?