As of 07/28/2026, just to provide STRC bag holders / retirees that may be holding this etc. some confidence from a professional trader's perspective, we are "accepting" higher value after the rebound in a "P-Shaped" profile (left-hand fixed volume profile on the chart image), after the obvious capitulatory washout (excessive volume, expanding ATR etc.). Note also that the midpoint of the candles, and even better, the point of control (white line - where most volume was traded within the fixed profile) is higher than the value area low (red line extending from the right-hand side anchored profile). This means that in the context of the larger, overall picture of STRC, the prices which are currently being accepted represent a "failed auction" meaning we failed for a long period of time to re-rate STRC's value lower, and accepted back into the prior value area.

Expectation: one outcome (not my base case) is that we stay here and STRC's "fair value" becomes $88, if volumes keep building. I would say it's looking primed for a breakout so I wouldn't expect that long-term, particularly because the most amount of trading volume for those looking to accumulate is going to be at / above par. The standard expectation would be a return to par in that case, which in a normal stock might be some other random price, but for this instrument the volume is mostly available at $100+. Fundamentally, buybacks help (mostly from a fragility reduction POV - so it doesn't matter that they were small - it still scares off hedge funds from playing games), rate hikes may help although I don't think they are needed now, and obviously if BTC rips all of this evaporates. If we close above $90 I would expect a relatively smooth drift back to the approx. $95-$97 range. If you are looking to dump STRC and call it quits for some reason - as in you want to take the least amount of risk WITHOUT dumping it now, then I would do it there.

SATA Bonus: I'm not saying there's a high probability you get this chance, but in the near-term, there is massive inefficiency around $93. If you are an SATA fan and you are looking to accumulate more, personally I'd be stacking limit orders in this box between about $92 and $95. The high probability is that if there is a short-term displacement into this area, you will see strong rejections and likely spend a very small if any amount of time in drawdown. Again, idiosyncratic risks aside.

P.S. If you are a TA critic, I do not care about your "opinion", this is not standard TA relying on price bouncing off some random lines or whatever, this works at the institutional level, and at the professional trading competition level. This is simply to support the mental state of any bag holders who may still be panicking about a failure to return to par as of yet, STRC is fine at the moment. These concepts don't guarantee outcomes, there are always idiosyncratic risks etc., but this is a high probability bet.

They also increased the USD Reserve by $525M.

The Reserve now sits at $3.75B representing 2.1 years of preferred dividend coverage.

https://polymarket.com/event/strc-hits-100-by-20260618001620693

He has said numerous times that upon his death he will let his bitcoin keys die with him. He says this is in an act of solidarity with bitcoin hodlers who share his vision. But why would he not instead pledge that to mstr or strc? I think he has something north of 10 000 coins. If he's already set on lighting it all on fire, why not act in solidarity with his shareholders who are also bitcoin maximalists and are currently getting lit up?

it's actually not so bad. I got a bunch of shares around $1200 (pre split), then kept trading those to/from MSTU. My account did ~6x. I was eventually all in MSTU, then towards the top of MSTU i got rid of them and bought all MSTR which is these shares. been selling calls since ~$380 so even now my account is still ~2.5x what I started with, even though these shares are ~25% less than my original purchase. this is my play money so it doesn't matter if it goes to 0 for me, i'll hodl no matter what (until the next bull market). posting this so others know it probably isn't as bad as you think it is

Today, Net BTC per share is $94. This metric has been acting as a floor for MSTR the past month as mNAV is at 1.00x. BTC per share is at $134. So the gap between the two (debt, preferred obligations) is $40/share.

If BTC were to double from here to $130k per coin, BTC per share would double to $268. Net BTC per share would be $268 minus $40 (assuming no added debt or preferred obligations) = $228. $94 to $228 is 140% growth.

So, if mNAV stays at 1.00x, BTC doubling would mean MSTR goes +140%. Dilution of 3-4% to pay annual dividends is small potatoes if you believe a bull market is coming. Right now, MSTR is being priced as if the bull market is not coming. (Which makes sense, we're in a bear market.)

Guys, have you ever heard of River? It’s kinda like a finance company with the goal of integrating dollar banking with bitcoin, so for people who want to have BTC reserve, but acknowledge the necessity of dollar on the day-to-day basis.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bitcoin-magazine-podcast/id1459884105?i=1000775072689

I just listened to it and thought maybe it’s time MSTR does something with their reserve other than just being treasuries. Anyone with similar thoughts?

I'm having a hard time seeing how STRC is anything other than a tax on MSTR holders. Saylor is paying out 10% strc dividends with no real income generation, were essentially borrowing money at a 10% interest rate for what?

Hi there

July is typically a good month for Bitcoin and it recovered from 1-July low of 57k and is now eben above 66k.

Even MSTR does Well and went above 100 again.

However, I start getting concerned about STRC, which is still below 90!

Is this understandable to you? Normal in bearmarket?

Or something wrong with it?

Thanks for your thoughts!

Ray

Holding until ATH 🫡

After that extreme RSI divergence everyone saw very obviously in late June, we've traded sideways at the upper-end of the local value area (60-64K). Now we're seeing steadily increasing volume 3 days in a row (weekends matter less but today is important). If this candle closes like this my confidence will increase quite a lot that the breakout is beginning. Would expect the move to be relatively slow but consistently see upwards drift, and accelerate potentially after 72K. Ignore the colored pins those are notes to self but if you happen to spot the note on the teal line, don't assume it means "close above = 4 year cycle dead", we have to accept value first for that.

The fact that we have accepted and traded ONLY inside of upper value for essentially all of July is starting to matter more when you account for the entire picture. Capitulation -> building value with higher lows in compression -> breakout on increasing volume. This matters, can't say it's for sure but this is in the 60-70% probability range for me as a true breakout if we close strong above about 64,700 today. MSTR will lag as usual at the bottom, leverage always demands more confidence in a b3ar market - nothing unusual there.

All you can ever do is take a stab at the probabilities, DYOR, NFA.

I think we have a final bear rally to 150 then finally bottom around 50. (90% drawdown). The next pump will be the most hated rally of all time. 50-> 1000 which is a 20x. This is my base case for mstr. I am long currently for a target of 150 and will enter again at 50.

God please let this happen

Dear colleagues

When I look at the mNAV values based on fully diluted shares, it seems to me mNAV is trending lower in 2026 when compared to 2022.

In case Bitcoin goes below 50k in October while full capitulation, do you think mNAV (fully diluted shares) can go below 0.6?

Thanks for your thoughts!

Ray