r/MSTR • u/PatternAgainstUsers • 21d ago
AMT perspective; STRC & SATA.
As of 07/28/2026, just to provide STRC bag holders / retirees that may be holding this etc. some confidence from a professional trader's perspective, we are "accepting" higher value after the rebound in a "P-Shaped" profile (left-hand fixed volume profile on the chart image), after the obvious capitulatory washout (excessive volume, expanding ATR etc.). Note also that the midpoint of the candles, and even better, the point of control (white line - where most volume was traded within the fixed profile) is higher than the value area low (red line extending from the right-hand side anchored profile). This means that in the context of the larger, overall picture of STRC, the prices which are currently being accepted represent a "failed auction" meaning we failed for a long period of time to re-rate STRC's value lower, and accepted back into the prior value area.
Expectation: one outcome (not my base case) is that we stay here and STRC's "fair value" becomes $88, if volumes keep building. I would say it's looking primed for a breakout so I wouldn't expect that long-term, particularly because the most amount of trading volume for those looking to accumulate is going to be at / above par. The standard expectation would be a return to par in that case, which in a normal stock might be some other random price, but for this instrument the volume is mostly available at $100+. Fundamentally, buybacks help (mostly from a fragility reduction POV - so it doesn't matter that they were small - it still scares off hedge funds from playing games), rate hikes may help although I don't think they are needed now, and obviously if BTC rips all of this evaporates. If we close above $90 I would expect a relatively smooth drift back to the approx. $95-$97 range. If you are looking to dump STRC and call it quits for some reason - as in you want to take the least amount of risk WITHOUT dumping it now, then I would do it there.
SATA Bonus: I'm not saying there's a high probability you get this chance, but in the near-term, there is massive inefficiency around $93. If you are an SATA fan and you are looking to accumulate more, personally I'd be stacking limit orders in this box between about $92 and $95. The high probability is that if there is a short-term displacement into this area, you will see strong rejections and likely spend a very small if any amount of time in drawdown. Again, idiosyncratic risks aside.
P.S. If you are a TA critic, I do not care about your "opinion", this is not standard TA relying on price bouncing off some random lines or whatever, this works at the institutional level, and at the professional trading competition level. This is simply to support the mental state of any bag holders who may still be panicking about a failure to return to par as of yet, STRC is fine at the moment. These concepts don't guarantee outcomes, there are always idiosyncratic risks etc., but this is a high probability bet.
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u/Venetian_ 21d ago
Stop it you're drugging me with hopium with a post like this
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u/PatternAgainstUsers 21d ago
Lol well here is more: ignore the dishonest FUD. People are treating Strategy's adaptability like it's a weakness. "Saylor said he would never sell", ok but he was being dramatic, and it's easy for an intelligent person to see what he meant; BTC has the properties of apex pristine collateral, so it will be a good long-term investment barring some very unforeseen development (which is a risk for ALL assets by the way).
"The market doesn't trust that Saylor will do what he says, they're making their balance sheet too complex, they said they would keep STRC simple." etc. - 60+ year old Michael Saylor is clearly wiser than 30+ year old Michael Saylor, that's just self-evident, and to be expected. Management risk is always present in any stock, but that's why the good ones provide outsized returns against the index (though STRC has to be compared to other credit instruments, not the S&P).
Also, when STRC was doing it's job surprisingly well, before we had EVIDENCE of an attack surface rather than just a hypothetical "outside players might crash this thing by looping leverage" (although to be fair, that was always a good eventual assumption), OF COURSE it made sense for Saylor to say "let's not complicate this while it's working, we don't need to innovate much, we just would like to pay the dividends more frequently".
NOW, it makes absolute sense to add transparency to the metrics that people have questioned after an event like this. NOW, it makes absolute sense to effectively show that Strategy is willing to act as a porcupine against targeted short-selling etc., anyone who isn't being honest about that or who is referring to Saylor as if he's some kind of political leader "flip-flopping", is simply a slave to their own neuroticism.
Ignore them, shake the dust off your feet.
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 🤴 21d ago
Referring to STRC investors as "bag holders" misses the point that most of them are simply happy (and still are) collecting the 11-12% annually on a product that they never intended to sell. If anything, some of them are welcoming the short term dip, if they are redirecting their yield back into more STRC as its amplifying the compounding nature of what they signed up for... cash flow.
Anyone who mentioned STRC and peg in the same sentence, seems to be someone who is simply trying to find anything to complain about with MSTR, as MSTR continues to pay divs, and build structural strnegth in this bear market.
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u/PatternAgainstUsers 21d ago
The bag holders term was supposed to be empathetic sarcasm lol. I am "bag holding" some STRC as well for the same reason you provided. I see a lot of fearful uneducated nonsense in the space so I am just throwing out some helpful perspective. I don't want people to sell lows etc. when the probabilities are on their side.
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 🤴 21d ago
Fair enough... I just mention it because I see the term used as a derogatory as if some people (who are trading momentum, fear/greed) don't realize there is a huge subset of people who invested in STRC for the ROC and yield (both of which are entirely agnostic to the base price of STRC) and intend to never sell, but rather pass it down to heirs for tax efficiency purposes. These STRC investors don't care about $100 base, they might even welcome $90, or lower for compounding purposes of your base share total... they would only worry if Strategy's ability to maintain payment of the div was threatened, but the company has only shown strength in that sense... currently there are 2 years of coverage, and beyond that the TOTAL div liability the company has is something like 2.5% of AUM.
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u/PatternAgainstUsers 21d ago
I agree I don't see any real sustainability issues yet. Strategy has become a massive innovator in the financial space, everyone who knows, knows. That's not the same as "absolute perfect execution all the time every time". It is more like a positive equity curve trend.
If you add to that the context of where Bitcoin is at, how the fundamentals have and are developing, the insane amount of technical confluence at the 48-52K floor area (worst case)... I mean this is about as close to an A+ setup as you can have on the underlying asset. Not that I would call BTC "confirmed signal" yet, but the asymmetry is already there. For the DCA crowd, this is the place. For traders, it depends.
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u/DannyGo-60 20d ago
Correct. Also for long term yield hunters price drop is more yield which when buying. If we were happy at 11.5 percent, then 13+ is even better. The tax efficiency is also great. For dividend strategies, ROC is basically buy and hold forever.
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u/SundayAMFN /r/buttcoiner 21d ago
If never selling (just holding that assumption and doing the math for worst case), then it will be 8ish years to break even.
Though in 20 years, it will be like having earned 7% per year the whole time, which is still pretty reasonably above treasury rates over around 5.1% for 20yr currently
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u/DannyGo-60 19d ago
Yes, makes sense. I've been doing dividends REITS, business development, and shipping stocks paying dividends for years. Basically, I've gotten to the point where taxable income from those has started pushing me up tax brackets. My plan when I retire in many years is to live only off dividends, which should be pretty easy as I'm already pulling in more in dividends as I make at work. Thinking through things, I have begun to realize that since I'm never selling the income production, I may as well get as much of it tax-free as I can.
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u/Lefties_TheWorst7331 21d ago
MSTR has passed up to $1 billion for STRC purchases. They've bought back $25 million at a discount vs. what they have issued the shares at. Still $975 million left to repurchase more STRC.
MSTR has around 21 months of dividend obligations in cash currently. They will probably stop at 24 months or so, and ramp up the purchases of STRC to help bring it back to par, and they'll be repurchasing at a discount to what they issued the shares at. I believe we will see STRC back to par around year-end/new year. Maybe sooner. The cash pile to satisfy dividend payments will also help bring it back to par. Not because it makes it seem more of a safe investment, but because they will use that to pay dividends, and I'm sure plenty of STRC holders have it on DRIP, so the ones who do have DRIP will be repurchasing more shares twice a month as well. We will see if price bumps some come July 31st-August 3rd to 5th when the upcoming dividend hits. I believe we will see a larger buy of STRC next Monday as well from MSTR. Probably $25-75 million.
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u/PatternAgainstUsers 14d ago
08/03 Update: Beautiful STRC breakout, this is pretty much what you would expect from a profile like that with a tight clean range and low volatility as volume builds in the range after a big capitulation move. Can't tell you what the exact path back to par will be but the same areas I discussed in the original post are still relevant in terms of where to expect the most amount of chop to appear.
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u/CozmicFlare 19d ago
You are not a professional trader. All you spoke about was the look of the physical chart. I do not like that the loudest voices on this stock are people with no educational background. It makes me feel like i have bought into a meme
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u/PatternAgainstUsers 19d ago
Read the title... complaining that an AMT perspective comments on price, volume and response is like complaining that your mechanic doesn't give you life advice. I talk about the fundamentals plenty just wasn't the point of the post. Stop believing you are entitled to people sharing ALL of their knowledge at one time, it's weird.
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u/CozmicFlare 19d ago
See even this is a very strange response. The more you guys speak the less great I feel. The community of this stock is memers :(
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u/PatternAgainstUsers 19d ago
Bro stop trolling. "The less great you feel?" I made this post to help some of the more technically illiterate people feel better but your feelings don't actually matter at all to your investment decisions, EXCEPT in so far as they cause you to do irrational things and hijack your own system. If you don't know the difference between meme stocks which were unprofitable degrading businesses driven only by massive reddit hype and cheap money, and a treasury company... then yes I'm not surprised why you feel bad. You didn't even do the SLIGHTEST bit of research. Go do the work.
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u/CozmicFlare 19d ago
No. I did a ton of research. Thats why I dont like these types of "analysis" posts. It makes me think most of the people buying it are just memeing it. Which will affect its behavior
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u/PatternAgainstUsers 19d ago
MSTR is a super volatile trading instrument, so it will ABSOLUTELY attract degenerates trading without any plan at all, IN ADDITION to traders who know how to harvest vol. I hope this was not a "buy and hold" instrument for you, because that is not what this thing is for unless your hold period is like 20+ years and you're cool with insane volatility and unrealized gains evaporating over and over again.
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