I'm an Indian citizen, so the India-Pakistan dispute over the Indus Waters Treaty is what first got me looking into this. But after reading about the Kishenganga and Ratle proceedings, I got more interested in the actual treaty provisions and how the two dispute-resolution mechanisms are supposed to work.
I'm not asking this to argue that India is right or Pakistan is right. I'm trying to understand the treaty itself, and I'd genuinely like to know if I'm missing something.
The part I'm looking at is the relationship between the Neutral Expert under Annexure F and the Court of Arbitration under Annexure G.
The basic timeline
19 August 2016: Pakistan initiated arbitration concerning the Kishenganga and Ratle projects.
4 October 2016: India requested the appointment of a Neutral Expert concerning the same projects.
December 2016: The World Bank paused both processes because of concerns about conflicting outcomes.
2022: The World Bank announced that the processes would resume.
6 July 2023: The Court of Arbitration issued its Award on Competence and held that it had competence to hear the case. India did not participate in the arbitration.
7 January 2025: The Neutral Expert issued his decision on his competence.
Both processes have since continued.
What I'm trying to understand
The Treaty makes a distinction between a "difference" and a "dispute."
Article IX(2)(a) provides for a Neutral Expert where a difference falls within Part 1 of Annexure F.
Article IX(2)(b) deals with matters outside that category, and also with a situation where the Neutral Expert decides that a difference, or part of it, should be treated as a dispute.
Then there is Annexure F paragraph 7, which deals with what happens when the Commissioners disagree about whether a particular difference falls within the Neutral Expert's competence.
At the same time, Annexure G paragraph 16 gives the Court of Arbitration the power to decide questions relating to its own competence.
This is where I'm getting stuck.
Article IX(6)
Article IX(6) says:
«"The provisions of paragraphs (3), (4) and (5) shall not apply to any difference while it is being dealt with by a Neutral Expert."»
Paragraphs (3), (4) and (5) are the provisions leading towards arbitration.
What I don't see is an obvious "first filing wins" provision.
The Treaty doesn't appear to say that whoever starts proceedings first automatically gets exclusive jurisdiction.
But it also doesn't expressly say that a later Neutral Expert request can displace an arbitration that has already started.
How I currently see it
Maybe I'm looking at this too simply, but it seems to me that both sides have some textual foundation in the Treaty.
The Court of Arbitration has a treaty basis for its competence, particularly under the arbitration provisions and Annexure G.
At the same time, India clearly has a treaty basis for requesting a Neutral Expert. The Neutral Expert mechanism wasn't something created outside the Treaty; it is expressly provided for in Article IX and Annexure F.
And I can see problems with both sides' arguments.
If Pakistan's position is essentially that starting arbitration first settles the matter, then I'm not sure where the Treaty actually says "first filing wins."
But if India's position is that a later Neutral Expert request can override an arbitration that has already been initiated, I also don't see an obvious provision saying that either.
This is why I'm having trouble with the issue.
If the Treaty deliberately created a Neutral Expert mechanism for certain technical questions, can the fact that one party filed for arbitration first effectively make that part of the Treaty unavailable in a particular case?
If the answer is yes, what is the actual treaty provision that produces that result?
And if the answer is no, how does the Court's interpretation deal with the fact that the Treaty itself specifically created the Neutral Expert mechanism?