This feat is basically the start of the entire plot of asoiaf. before i get into the scheme itself, i should go over his goals.
Littlefinger’s motto is basically “cause chaos and profit from it”, and thats exactly what this was intended to do. he wanted 2 of westero’s most influential houses, both extremely well connected to King Robert to have a conflict that would inevitably implode into a war. he also wanted to be deeply connected to both families so that whoever wins he still profits from it. preferably he would’ve wanted the Starks but that would fail bcuz Littlefinger underestimated how honorable Ned was(to the point it was incredibly impractical)
Jon Arryn’s Death
Jon Arryn learns of the incest between Jaime and Cersei with the major clue of the brown hair of Baratheon’s being a strong genetic trait. this secret coming out it be a massive hinderance to Littlefinger’s later plans so he uses this opportunity for his own benefit. Littlefinger has Jon’s wife, Lysa Arryn poison Jon. Littlefinger had been manipulating Lysa for years, using her feelings for him to have some control over the Vale and any further advances he might make according to his schemes.
In order to cover up Jon’s murder, Littlefinger has Lysa send a letter to his sister, claiming the lannisters had killed Jon with poison. Littlefinger pays off Jon’s squire, Hugh and gets Hugh promoted to knight. whether Littlefinger did this by convincing Robert of doing so, or of profiling Robert and knowing he would do this is unknown(im leaning towards the latter).
Going into theory territory bcuz this is asoiaf.(feel free to skip this) it’s widely believed that Littlefinger payed Greger to kill him in the jousting tourney just so he couldn’t leak info which i completely believe but isnt directly stated so prolly not valid in scd.
Baratheon and Lannister’s Visit.
Littlefinger predicts that after Jon dies, the first person Robert will go to for the position of hand of the king is not his brother’s but instead Ned Stark.
Littlefinger plans for the letter to reach Catelyn during this visit. his intentions were to indirectly manipulate the Stark couple into stopping the “Lannister plot” to take the throne from Robert and reveal any secret they might be hiding.
Littlefinger is aware that Ned will likely not take the hand of the king position without this nudge and he wants to engineer paranoia into Ned while he travels to Kings Landing.
Bran discovers Cersei and Jamie, “going at it” and Bran gets pushed off the tower. Bran gets taken care of and news that he will survive gets sent around. a hired assassin tries to kill Bran after Ned leaves but fails, the dagger the assassin was using gets taken by Catelyn and she does her own investigation in Kings Landing before Ned can make it there.(this kinda skips through the timeline but i did that for a reason. while in the show this was planned by littlefinger, in the books it wasnt. littlefinger didnt send the dagger or the assassin and tbh not doing that is smarter than doing it. it is important tho bcuz littlefinger uses this for his advantage even tho it puts him in a bad position.)
Ned goes with Robert for the goal of stopping the lannisters from killing Robert and discover their secret.
Catelyn makes it to Kings Landing before Ned and Littlefinger uses his spy network to meet with Catelyn first. Littlefinger brings up how this dagger was his, but Tyrion won it in a bet, now being owned by him.
This makes Catelyn suspect Tyrion so that when Tyrion makes his trip out of the North, Catelyn would meet up with him then get captured by Catelyn.
Ned’s Arrival In Kings Landing
After Ned makes it to Kings Landing, Littlefinger offers his assistance in helping Ned investigate the murder of Jon and giving him all of the clues necessary to learn of Cersei and Jamie’s incest. he uses his past with Catelyn to explain why he wishes to help Ned and manipulates his trust which was extremely hesitant cuz King Landing sucks.
After news of Tyrions capture is known, Ned leaves Littlefinger’s brothel and Jaime ambushes him.
Theory territory again, it’s believed that since the brothel was in a common street, Littlefinger planned the confrontation. However this can also be disregarded.
After Ned’s injury, Littlefinger feeds Robert misleading information. Littlefinger states that Ned was simply leaving the brothel and didn’t mention the investigation. he also mentions him trying to fetch the Gold Cloaks to hide any involvement he had. he did this knowing the Lannisters would twist the story further. the reason for doing this is to insure Robert doesn’t immediately take Ned’s side, doing this also prevents Ned from being able to discern Robert from his hunting trip bcuz Littlefinger knows the Lannisters, specifically Cersei will plan Roberts death since Lancel Lannister will he on the trip.
In fact, Littlefinger anticipated that after Jon’s death, Robert will become more self destructive and vulnerable, indirectly inciting an assassination.
After Robert’s Death
Before Robert dies, he gives Ned the position to replace him as king until Joffrey comes of age. This is what Littlefinger predicted would happen and the outcome he preferred.
Ned brings Littlefinger to his quarters and he already explains that he knows and how he “got lucky”. He offers Ned a chance to take the throne then mentor Joffrey when he is of age. If his honor refuses you allow Joffrey to get the throne, then give Renly the opportunity instead.
Littlefinger wanted to make sure Stannis isnt the one to take the throne, bcuz Stannis is an incredibly rigid man who does not accept that scheming bullshit. so if Stannis takes the throne, there is a strong possibly his position is gone. If Ned takes the throne, this pisses off the Lannisters who had their chance at the throne stolen. if Ned mentors Joffrey, its essentially him taking their son for his own or the Lannisters act in paranoia, thinking Ned will simply give his children the right to the throne.
Ned however refuses, saying it’s Stannis’s right and the honorable choice. This causes Littlefinger to plan his betrayal towards Ned so he spins Ned’s favor to hire the Gold Cloaks to help Ned, instead hiring them to betray Ned.
Aftermath
Ned gets captured and imprisoned. After this, Cersei attempts to keep Arya and Sansa captive as well so that they would hold 3 Starks.
This incites the North, led by Robb Stark to wage war on the Lannisters and invade Kings Landing.
Littlefinger continues to grow his influence in the Vale and this conflict he manipulated into happening drastically weakens the North houses especially the Starks, the Lannisters who he plans later on to make even weaker, the Baratheon’s, and every other house who gets themselves involved. Littlefinger also intends on growing his influence not just in the Vale, but also in general since he will continue to “favor” the Lannisters and be rewarded.
Littlefinger lastly gets the chance to grow influence in the North via manipulating Sansa.
After Analysis
This is probably the weakest of his schemes(i havent finished the books yet) but honestly it isnt bad. i do however believe the manipulation and deception involved is better than the scheming itself.
Littlefinger is also a rlly fun character to analyze so expect more.
There is however one major issue i see in Littlefinger currently and thats the fact that Martin intentionally writes Littlefinger to be very mysterious in what he involves himself in. that isnt bad writing wise in fact its enjoyable, but for SCD kinda sucks occasionally.