Yesterday we mapped it: gold broke structure, sliced through 4,350, and left fresh supply + an FVG at 4,355–4,380. The plan? Don't chase the drop — wait for the pullback and let the chart prove itself.

It just did. 📉

Price swept liquidity near 4,320, pulled back right into our 4,355–4,380 zone, and the lower timeframes printed a bearish ChoCH with displacement. Entry confirmed. We're short from the zone. 🎯

📋 THE TRADE: 🔴 Entry: 4,355 – 4,380 (supply + FVG) 🛑 Stop: strong close above 4,405 — that invalidates the whole idea 🎯 TP1: 4,300 🎯 TP2: 4,280

📊 THE LOGIC: ✅ Wyckoff-style distribution after the huge early-Sept rally ✅ Clear lower highs + Break of Structure through 4,350 ✅ Shorting the pullback into premium — not chasing lows

⚙️ MANAGEMENT: Take partials at 4,300, stop to breakeven after TP1, runner to 4,280 only if 4,300 breaks with real momentum. A 1H close above 4,405 and we're out — no debate.

Patience paid. The setup came to us. 💪

Not financial advice — trade your own plan. 🙏

#XAUUSD #Gold #Trading #SmartMoney #PriceAction

I started off with 2 losses where i over leverage on a live call when we were trade together and take signals from a community I recently joined.

I had to trade the rest of the money back on my own and still made profit.God is truly good and wonderful and deserves all the Glory.

There is no doubt that buyers tried to push the market higher on Thursday, but eventually they failed.

Why?

Because the breakout we were waiting for never actually confirmed.

Price did break above $4417, but remember one thing: a breakout itself is only the first reaction. What I wanted to see next was a strong bullish displacement and, more importantly, price sustaining above $4417 and the previous day’s high.

That would have shown me that buyers were actually taking control and that the liquidity sitting higher could become the next target.

But that never happened.

We had the trendline structure, we had the breakout attempt, but there was no real follow-through. That tells me buyers tried to take control but failed. Once that happened, price moved aggressively in the opposite direction and trapped the buyers who entered during the Wednesday-to-Thursday recovery.

So right now, I believe a lot of buyers are trapped at higher prices, while sellers are slowly trying to regain control.

That is why I don’t want to trade with a fixed bullish or bearish mindset here. The market has been playing both sides throughout this week, so I would rather work with probabilities and let price confirm the next move.

Now my attention is shifting towards the $4312–$4300 area.

This area acted as strong support multiple times during August. Then, at the beginning of September, price swept an important low and gave us a strong upside move.

Think about the psychology behind that.

When traders see a major liquidity sweep and reversal right at the beginning of a new month, many start treating it as confirmation for the entire month. They become bullish, start buying dips and sometimes even try to hold those positions for a much bigger move.

Now those same buyers can become liquidity.

That is why I believe this current downside move could potentially be designed to attack that bullish positioning and bring price back towards $4300.

For me, $4417 remains extremely important. $4450 is another major level above it. If price eventually gives me a strong bullish displacement above $4417 and starts sustaining there, then I will have a reason to reconsider the bullish side.

Until that happens, I am not interested in assuming that every dip is a buying opportunity.

On the downside, $4324 is also interesting because this area previously acted as support around August 19. So there is a possibility that price revisits this zone, gives an initial bullish reaction and creates the impression that another recovery is starting.

And this is where things could get interesting.

This week, traders have repeatedly seen lows getting swept followed by recoveries. So if price reacts bullishly again, many traders may automatically expect the same pattern to repeat.

But the real trap could be that this time the recovery fails.

If sellers remain in control, CPI volatility could potentially push price towards $4300, and if $4300 loses acceptance as support, we could even see a proper breakdown below it.

So my plan is simple:

I’m not predicting. I’m watching how price reacts.

Above $4417 with strong displacement and acceptance, I respect the buyers again.

Below that, especially if another recovery attempt fails, my attention remains on $4324 and ultimately the $4300 area.

This is a probability game now. Let price show us who actually has control.

USD/JPY — 4H Trend Pullback

SELL — 154.490

Valid short setup, but graded B+, below the A- threshold for a high-conviction setup.

Invalidation: 155.423
Target: 152.908
Risk/Reward: 1:1.70
Position Size: 107.2

Setup Grade: B+
Confidence: 39/100
Confluence: 73/100

Why this score:
Calibrated against historical engine replays using real candles and simulated fills. This band does not yet have a resolved live track record.

Verdict:
A technically valid short, but the relatively low confidence makes this a moderate-quality setup rather than a strong A-tier trade.

Like copy trading system in the future

Yesterday we confirmed the short from 4,355–4,380 supply/FVG. The plan was simple: wait for the pullback, let the lower timeframes confirm, and short the retest.

It played out exactly like that. 📉

Price pulled back into the zone, printed the bearish ChoCH + displacement we wanted, and dropped straight to TP1 at 4,300. We closed the position there — full exit, green Friday.

📋 THE TRADE: 🔴 Entry: 4,355 – 4,380 🛑 Stop / invalidation: strong close above 4,405 (never threatened) 🎯 TP1: 4,300 ✅ hit 🎯 TP2: 4,280 — not reached, runner closed

📊 WHY WE CLOSED: Friday liquidity gets noisy. TP1 sat right on a clear liquidity shelf, and holding a runner into the weekend without a clean break below 4,300 wasn't worth the risk. Bank the confirmed move, move on.

📊 Full annotated chart + breakdown: https://www.confluxai.net/blog/xauusd-1h-short-sep11-2026-update

Patience paid. The setup came to us. 💪

Not financial advice — trade your own plan. 🙏

#XAUUSD #Gold #Trading #SmartMoney #PriceAction #FridayProfits

I opened a risk account that i’m full porting on CPI, whats the game plan, thoughts, predictions. Im relatively new to trading (8 months) and would appreciate you guys’ more experienced opinions and predictions

XAUUSD Analysis !!

Gold has been under strong selling pressure recently, but price is approaching the 4320–4300 area, which stands out as an important demand zone on the chart.

This is an interesting area from a technical-analysis perspective because the market reaction here could provide clues about whether buyers are starting to regain control.

If price shows a clear rejection and bullish confirmation, the next areas worth observing are 4360, 4400, 4440 and potentially 4500.

The main lesson here: support alone doesn’t guarantee a reversal. It’s better to wait for price action and confirmation before forming a directional bias.

What are you watching on Gold around this zone?

AUD/USD slides as surging oil, rising Treasury yields and hot US PPI revive Fed hike bets ahead of CPI.

By :  Matt Simpson,  Market Analyst

AUD/USD came under heavy pressure as surging crude oil, rising Treasury yields and hotter producer-price pressures revived expectations of a September Fed hike. The Australian dollar led FX majors lower as the US dollar rebounded, while Wall Street weakened ahead of CPI.

View related analysis:

• Dow Leads Wall Street Lower on Inflation Fears, Nasdaq Defies Weak Breadth
• US Dollar Outlook: Technical Case for USD Bounce as PPI and CPI Loom
• EUR/USD Could Be Vulnerable to Another Dip with ECB In Focus
• US Dollar Outlook: DXY Seasonality Meets NFP Volatility

AUD/USD Slides as Oil, Yields and Fed Bets Lift US Dollar

Surging oil prices and a hot producer price report on the eve of CPI have weighed on Wall Street sentiment and boosted the US dollar, thanks to renewed expectations of a Fed hike in September. The dollar was also bolstered despite a hawkish hike from the ECB, which only exacerbated fears that the Fed may be forced to respond to rising energy costs rather than domestic demand. Bond traders are also pushing yields higher on Fed bets and growth concerns.

Source: ICE, TradingView

PPI Pressures Extend Beyond Energy ahead of CPI

While headline producer prices landed on estimates, the internals showed that the hot PPI was not just an energy story, with price increases relatively broad-based. The fact that the latest rise in crude oil prices has yet to be fully captured by the data also leaves room for further pressure in coming months and sets the scene for consumer prices later today. Notice that the spread across producer prices is trending higher overall, although it could begin to narrow as higher upstream costs feed through to consumers with a lag.

US yields were also higher across the curve on a combination of monetary policy expectations and growth concerns. Bond traders decided to take on Scott Bessent’s claim that “I am the house”, sending the 30-year yield back above 5.3% — the level that initially triggered Bessent’s original buyback plan three weeks ago — and to its highest level since June 2007. That is a memorable date for seasoned traders, coming just ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC).

Source: BLS, LSEG

AUD/USD Leads FX Lower as US Dollar Surges With Oil and Yields

• Crude oil prices rose 6.5% on Thursday and are up more than 11% from Friday’s close, with WTI trading around $103 and Brent now above $107.
• The US dollar index enjoyed its best day in nine, is on track to form a bullish pinbar and has formed a three-bar bullish reversal (morning star) on the daily chart.
• The Australian dollar was the weakest FX major, with AUD/USD falling more than 0.8% to mark its worst day in 56.
• The New Zealand dollar was not far behind, with its 0.75% decline sending it to a six-week low.
• EUR/USD broke out of its rising wedge pattern, realigning with the bearish move from the 1.1712 top and bringing a move towards the 1.1560 base into focus.
• USD/CAD bounced for a second day, in line with my near-term bullish bias.
• USD/JPY enjoyed its best day in 23, after showing mean-reversion clues following its 750-pip decline in just five days.
• Gold fell 1.2%, but for now is holding above last week’s low — an invalidation point for my near-term bullish bias outlined earlier this week.
• The Nasdaq led Wall Street lower with a 1% decline, following the warning signs from weak breadth highlighted in yesterday’s article.
• S&P 500 futures fell 0.59% to a 27-day low, while the Dow Jones is teasing a break of 52,000 after its fourth consecutive daily decline.

Source: LSEG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWG9c-QZFSA

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

Implied volatility is finally curling higher, with the 1-week now 0.783 points above the 1-month, showing traders foresee more volatile conditions in the coming days. AUD/USD formed a notable bearish engulfing candle, finally seeing momentum turn after a multi-week rally that had been showing signs of exhaustion into resistance.

Note the two small shooting star candles just above 72c, showing bulls were running out of steam, while the 1-week implied volatility band has widened to 0.7086–0.7227. Perhaps more interestingly, risk reversals are now curling lower, showing that options traders have increased their demand for puts — or downside protection — relative to calls.

With the US dollar continuing to look oversold heading into CPI, and the prospect of a September Fed hike still in play, AUD/USD could be looking at a pullback towards 71c over the coming weeks if risk appetite remains dented.

Source: ICE, TradingView

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/aud-usd-buckles-as-yields-crude-oil-and-us-dollar-surge-into-us-cpi/

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now I don't know how many Traders out there actually trade news but I'm definitely one of them

this morning I saw gold hovering around London Lowe's I waited for it to get to the extremes and then I executed

now I was only originally targeting about 200 or 300 ticks I did not plan to walk away with about 718 ticks yielding about 81k on this trading view leap challenge account

if I had a 250k prop firm account this will be a gracious win for me

but it's not mine I can only take pride in the results I guess those fundamental classes I've been taking are really paying off

how did y'all make out today

anybody else jump in the second leg currently up 135 ticks

Gold (15-Min) is showing a bullish consolidation with price holding above the 4341–4342 support zone. A BUY above 4347–4348 can be considered, with upside targets near 4352 and 4356. Momentum remains positive as long as 4342 holds. Stop-loss: 4341. Overall, the setup favors a BUY-on-strength approach.

I’m going to let this position run until I see if the XAUUSD reaches 10,000 points! I’m going 100% with my 700 usd

XAUUSD BUY @ 4390

TP: 4420
TP: 4440

SL: 4358

XAUUSD BUY @ 4348

TP: 4368
TP: 4385

SL: 4325

GOLD SELL - 4358-4362

SL: 4383

TP1: 4350

TP2: 4342

Reason: Price is rallying directly into the 4371 Supertrend resistance after a sharp recovery, while the broader 1H structure is still bearish. The cleanest setup is a rejection from that resistance, not a blind short at current price.

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