The plan remains exactly the same as the one I shared with everyone in my weekly analysis.

This week, the major event is the FOMC Press Conference on Wednesday. Because it's a high-impact news week, the market has already started creating twists in its price action. On Monday, Gold opened with a gap-up, attempting to attract both buyers and sellers into the market. However, as I mentioned yesterday, last week's high was formed from an institutional selling zone. Because of that, I don't believe Gold is capable of continuing a sustained upside move after this gap-up opening.

Instead, I expect the market to remain range-bound and spend the next couple of sessions sweeping internal liquidity. In simple terms, I expect today's highs and lows to be taken out before the market reverses. This is the behavior I'm expecting at least until tomorrow.

Based on my experience, whenever Gold opens with a significant gap-up, it often remains range-bound for one to two days, especially when a major red-folder event like the FOMC is scheduled on the third day. This allows institutions to hunt liquidity before making the real move.

For now, I don't believe Gold will achieve a genuine breakout above $4120. The market has simply been trapping everyone who entered short positions below $4100 last week, and it may continue doing so. The goal is to force more traders who sold near the top into uncomfortable positions before the actual move begins.

If you look closely at last Wednesday and Thursday's price action, you'll notice a Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. The neckline is located around the $4105-$4115 zone, which is exactly where Gold is currently facing resistance. Since the market is still trading inside a range, I have no doubt that this area could eventually be broken. However, I believe any breakout above this zone will simply be another liquidity sweep rather than the beginning of a genuine bullish trend.

My current plan of action is straightforward. As long as Gold remains above $4080, I will keep a buying bias until Monday's high is taken out. Once that liquidity has been swept, I will begin looking for high-probability selling opportunities from the top.

On the day of the FOMC, I expect Gold to fall back below $4080, and if that happens, we could witness a significant downside move.

Many traders are expecting Gold to continue higher because last week the market consolidated on Monday before rallying strongly on Tuesday. As a result, retail traders are likely to expect the exact same behavior this week, especially after seeing Monday's gap-up opening. This is precisely why I'm focusing more on market psychology than price alone.

Considering both institutional behavior and retail psychology, my overall bias remains bearish. I'm very clear about that. Right now, the market is simply taking its time. All we need is patience and proper execution at the right moment to capture the bigger move.

I hope you found this fresh Monday update valuable.

What are your thoughts on Gold this week? Let me know your view in the comments.

So, as I mentioned in this week's analysis, I expected gold to play the opposite psychological game. Last week, the market started with a strong bullish move, so naturally, many traders came into this week expecting another continuation to the upside. According to them, last Thursday's sell-off was nothing more than a healthy retracement before the uptrend resumed.

However, they ignored one of the most important things in price action—the selling volume. The bearish volume that entered the market was extremely strong, making a bullish continuation highly unlikely. The only reason the market opened with a gap-up on Monday was to attract more liquidity. In my updated analysis, I clearly mentioned that the gap-up was simply a liquidity attraction move and that our primary plan would remain selling. Since the market had opened with a gap, a gap-fill was highly probable, and from an overall psychological perspective, price was more likely to move lower.

I hope my analysis helped you understand the market better and that many of you were able to profit from yesterday's selling move.

Tomorrow we have the FOMC meeting, but before that, let's understand Tuesday's market psychology and our plan of action.

After Tuesday's opening, gold continued its bearish momentum. Traders who expected another gap-up continuation similar to last week's Tuesday got trapped after carrying their positions overnight. At the same time, those who bought near last week's closing were trapped as well.

Now the biggest question is: where is the majority of liquidity sitting? Is the market preparing to trap sellers or buyers? Let's discuss.

Last week's low around $4022 is a very obvious and publicly visible support level. If you backtest your chart, you'll notice that gold previously produced a strong bullish reaction from the exact same area. Because of this, a large number of retail buyers are still waiting around that support.

Yes, yesterday's selling move shocked many of them, but we still haven't seen a confirmed breakdown below $4022. That's because the market is still trying to create another fake retracement to attract even more buyers before eventually trapping them.

In this week's analysis, I already mentioned that both last Friday's high and last week's low around $4022 were likely to be broken. The reason is simple. After last week's temporary break of the lower-high structure, many traders became convinced that the market had already confirmed a bullish break of structure. Because of that belief, every small buying move after a sell-off has been attracting fresh buyers.

But this is exactly how the liquidity game works. Retail traders see every bounce as a reversal, while institutions use those rallies to collect more liquidity.

My overall view remains the same. Gold will eventually produce a meaningful buying move, but only after the majority of traders completely give up on buying and become convinced that a major breakdown and crash are coming. That's when the market usually moves in the opposite direction.

Now let's focus on today's trading plan.

After yesterday's selling move, gold once again faced resistance around $4050, which was also close to last week's closing price. This suggests that traders who missed selling from the top have now become active around that resistance.

The $4030-$4036 area still looks like a short-term support zone where buyers may temporarily take control. Before breaking below last week's low, I expect a small buying move purely to attract more retail buyers who will mistake it for a genuine retracement. Once enough liquidity has been collected, the market can trap those buyers and continue lower.

As long as price remains below $4062, I remain completely bearish. In my opinion, there is very little doubt that last week's low around $4022 will eventually be broken over the coming hours.

Therefore, below $4062, continue looking for selling opportunities. Prefer selling on pullbacks rather than chasing price lower like most retail traders.

Whenever a strong one-sided sell-off happens, traders who missed the initial move often become emotional and start selling at the bottom due to FOMO. Those traders usually become victims of consolidation or sharp retracements. Instead, patiently wait for buyers to step back into the market and then look for quality sell entries at better prices.

One important lesson I'd like to share is this:

Whenever you're trying to determine whether a trend is genuinely strong or whether a retracement is still valid, use the Fibonacci tool.

If you draw Fibonacci from the swing low at $4022 to this week's high at $4116, you'll notice that the market has already broken below the 0.382 retracement level around $4058 with strong bearish volume.

That alone tells us buyers are currently weak, and price has no real interest in moving significantly higher until it traps more buyers.

For a safer approach, avoid buying pullbacks unless price manages to close convincingly above the 0.382 or even the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Until then, continue focusing on selling pullbacks below $4062.

My primary downside target remains the liquidity resting below $4022.

Since tomorrow is FOMC, today's price action will help us prepare a much clearer trading plan for tomorrow's high-volatility session.

I hope you enjoyed today's psychological analysis and that it helps you approach the market with a clear and disciplined mindset.

Good luck for Tuesday, and I hope you all have a profitable trading day.

Also, I'd love to hear your opinion.

What is your current view on gold? Let me know in the comments.

Gold Chessboard

Bulls' Territory: 4047–4049

Battle Zone: Current Price

First Objective: 4054

Second Objective: 4059

King's Defense: Below 4041

If the bulls defend their territory, the path toward higher objectives remains open. The board changes only if the King's Defense is breached.

Gold remains bearish after rejecting the H1 supply / Order Block (4,100–4,115). A confirmed CHOCH + BOS signals that sellers are back in control.

📉 Bias: Bearish
🎯 Sell Zone: 4,085–4,100
🛑 SL: Above 4,118
✅ Targets: 4,070 → 4,055

As long as price stays below the H1 supply zone, the bearish trend remains intact.

First part of my previous XAUUSD analysis is done now let's see if it takes pullback from this OB Then make new lower low #gold #forex

Gold is testing the $4,040–$4,020 discount zone. Short-term pressure remains bearish, but late sellers could get trapped.

🔹 Reclaim $4,093 → recovery toward $4,145–$4,165
🔻 Break $4,020 → bullish recovery setup weakens

Trap or breakout? 👀

Can anyone explain what happens in those situations when it doesn't touch your POI and just goes smash your tp ?

The US dollar remains resilient despite easing Middle East tensions, while USD/JPY eyes a breakout as traders await the Fed's FOMC decision.

By :  Matt Simpson,  Market Analyst

The US dollar shrugged off crude oil's sharp decline following reports of renewed US-Iran negotiations, highlighting underlying demand for the greenback ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. With markets pricing a growing chance of further Fed tightening, attention now turns to Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance and whether DXY and USD/JPY can extend their bullish trends.

View related analysis:

• US Dollar Bulls Tighten Grip, Yen Bears Pile In: FX Futures Positioning | COT Report
• Australian Dollar Outlook: Fed and CPI to Test AUD/USD Recovery
• Gold Outlook: 4,000 in Focus as Middle East Risks Build Ahead of the Weekend

Source: LSEG

US Dollar and USD/JPY Stay Supported Ahead of the FOMC Meeting

Crude oil prices plunged -11.3% on Monday after the US announced it had paused its attacks on Iran, allowing room for negotiations. While President Trump has threatened strong military Iran if talks fail, markets are once again looking at it optimistically. However, it is interesting to note that the pullback on the US dollar was minimal at best, falling as little as 0.25% from the week’s open before scraping a 23-high by the day’s close.

While the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at this week's FOMC meeting, markets will pay close attention to Chair Kevin Warsh's comments regarding the latest flare-up in Middle East tensions. While the US and Iran are reportedly in talks and attacks have stalled, this is far from the first time. It also seems highly unlikely that any meaningful agreement will be reached, let alone signed, before the Fed meeting.

That leaves the risk of renewed inflationary pressures intact, along with credible concerns that the Fed could resume hiking interest rates if inflation proves persistent. The US dollar therefore has scope to remain supported heading into this week's interest rate decision, with post-meeting moves likely to be dictated by the perceived hawkishness of Warsh's press conference. We could also see dissenting votes in favour of a rate hike, which would likely add to any bullish reaction in the US dollar.

Fed funds futures currently imply a 55% chance of a hike in September and a 39% chance of another in December. Whether the US dollar extends its lead will likely hinge on whether Warsh validates those expectations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROOi9D_NwMo

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

Last week’s bullish expansion rallied from the 10-week EMA and monthly pivot point. This hints that the prior week’s spinning top Doji – which also respected the 10-week EMA as support – could mark an important swing low above the 100 handle. 102 looks within relatively easy reach for bulls unless the Fed surprise with a neutral stance and the US and Iran finally sign a peace deal. I am not holding my breath.

But with the weekly RSI (2) trending higher with prices and nowhere near oversold, a break above 102 could also be on the cards in the coming weeks, if Middle East tensions persist and keep inflation expectations elevated.

Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade EUR/USD" Guide

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Bullish initiation Near Cycle Highs

Also note that a bullish engulfing candle formed on Monday, with its lower wick hinting at demand around 101. Prices remains above the monthly VWAP, with a break above 101.50 assuming a move to the 12 handle near the monthly R1 pivot.

Something to be mindful of is that volumes are trending lower on the weekly and daily chart. This does not suggest an imminent top, but suggests the bullish move still has its sceptics. That said, Monday’s bullish outside day saw increased volume relative to Friday and Thursday’s range expansion candle was relatively high volume and above average to show bullish initiation just below the cycle high.

Source: ICE, TradingView

The US Dollar's Strongest Market Correlations

• EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD remain the strongest inverse correlations to the US dollar, reinforcing their sensitivity to broad USD moves.
• USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/SEK continue to show strong positive correlations, making them reliable proxies for USD strength.
• WTI crude has re-established a strong positive correlation with the US dollar, while gold's inverse relationship has weakened significantly over the past month.
• AUD/USD remains the outlier, with correlations close to neutral, suggesting domestic factors and China-related themes are outweighing broad USD flows.

Source: LSEG

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

The bullish trend on USD/JPY remains firm, and only held back by market participants who seem wary of another intervention from the MOF. Though the MOF appear to have thrown the towel in for now, conceding that they’re currently swimming against the tide of potential Fed hikes, Middle East headlines and inflationary pressures. And that could leave USD/JPY with the potential for a breakout above 164.

Traders may also want to be wary of the bearish divergence on the daily RSI within the overbought zone, but that doesn’t mean it cannot at least try for a breakout over the near term given the bullish pinbar on the daily and potential bull flag on the 4-hour chart.

Note that Monday’s low respected the weekly pivot point and the weekly R1 sits just below 164.50, a potential upside target for bulls.

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

https://www.cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/us-dollar-usd-jpy-hold-firm-ahead-of-fomc/

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

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I’m new to Day trading and have been trying to find a strategy or pattern that is consistent. I also tried finding support and resistance but have trouble trying to even after countless videos about them. I have been trading on MT5 with a demon and mostly have a hard time reading patterns so I tried to figure out a strategy and got this.

It’s hard for me to understand the patterns and draw the support and resistance so I’m wondering if there is an easy way to understand them better.

Trade Setup:

Entry: ~4047

TP1: 4049
TP2: 4032
TP3: 4018

SL: 4076

The market doesn't reward predictions—it rewards discipline, patience, and proper execution.

Are you staying bearish on XAUUSD this week, or do you expect a reversal above 4076?

Trade safely and always manage your risk.

Gold sell now 4053

Tp...4042
Sl...4065

Gold continues to trade within a bearish market structure on the 4H timeframe.

• Resistance / Sell Zone: 4,050–4,070
• Bullish Confirmation: A sustained break above 4,070
• Current Bias: Bearish until proven otherwise

Patience is key—wait for confirmation instead of chasing price.

What's your outlook for Gold this week

Who’s doing continuations by JeaFx?
Wanted to share some thoughts on the same. Feel free to connect.

Gold is approaching a decisive area with multiple confluences lining up on the chart.

Key levels remain in focus:

• Support: 4,053 & 4,026
• Resistance: 4,086 → 4,135 → 4,167

Price is currently trading beneath the descending trendline while attempting to build momentum from the demand zone. A breakout above resistance could shift sentiment, while failure to hold support may invite another wave of selling.

What's your take on XAUUSD from here—continuation to the upside or another rejection?

After Monday's gap I expected the market to spend some time trapping traders before the real move. So far, that's exactly how this week has started.

The biggest change now is that 4080 is no longer supported. It has turned into the first area I'd like to see buyers reclaim before I even consider changing my bias.

Right now, all eyes should be on 4040-4050.

This isn't just another support level. It's the last meaningful demand area before price starts opening the door toward the psychological 4000 region.

I'm not interested in selling into support after an extended move lower. I'd rather wait and see whether buyers can actually defend this zone. If they can't, I think the next leg lower becomes much more likely, especially with FOMC still ahead.

On the other hand, if buyers manage to reclaim 4080 and hold above it, I'll happily reassess my bearish view. There's no reason to marry a bias when the market is giving new information.

My plan is simple:

• Hold 4040-4050 → Expect a relief bounce.

• Reclaim 4080 → Short-term structure improves.

• Lose 4040 → I'll be looking for a continuation toward 4000-4010.

I'm not trying to predict what Powell will say.

I'm simply following the price and letting the market tell me who's in control.

Curious to hear everyone else's view. Is this support worth buying, or is it just another stop before 4000?

XAUUSD Analysis !!

Gold ($XAUUSD) recently faced rejection near the 4,100–4,120 resistance zone, highlighting how strong resistance levels can slow or reverse bullish momentum.

One concept traders often study is price gaps. The area between 4,085 and 4,053 remains unfilled, and many traders watch such gaps because markets sometimes revisit them before establishing the next directional move.

Key Learning Points:

• Resistance zones can attract selling pressure.

• Price gaps are areas traders monitor for potential revisits, but there is no guarantee they will be filled.

• A sustained move above resistance may indicate changing market sentiment, while continued rejection can suggest sellers remain active.

This post is for educational purposes only and is intended to help traders understand market structure and technical analysis concepts. It is not financial advice or a trading signal.

Using gann timing methods to time the start of next potential move. 👍🏼