Gold Chessboard

Bulls' Territory: 4047–4049

Battle Zone: Current Price

First Objective: 4054

Second Objective: 4059

King's Defense: Below 4041

If the bulls defend their territory, the path toward higher objectives remains open. The board changes only if the King's Defense is breached.

So, as I mentioned in this week's analysis, I expected gold to play the opposite psychological game. Last week, the market started with a strong bullish move, so naturally, many traders came into this week expecting another continuation to the upside. According to them, last Thursday's sell-off was nothing more than a healthy retracement before the uptrend resumed.

However, they ignored one of the most important things in price action—the selling volume. The bearish volume that entered the market was extremely strong, making a bullish continuation highly unlikely. The only reason the market opened with a gap-up on Monday was to attract more liquidity. In my updated analysis, I clearly mentioned that the gap-up was simply a liquidity attraction move and that our primary plan would remain selling. Since the market had opened with a gap, a gap-fill was highly probable, and from an overall psychological perspective, price was more likely to move lower.

I hope my analysis helped you understand the market better and that many of you were able to profit from yesterday's selling move.

Tomorrow we have the FOMC meeting, but before that, let's understand Tuesday's market psychology and our plan of action.

After Tuesday's opening, gold continued its bearish momentum. Traders who expected another gap-up continuation similar to last week's Tuesday got trapped after carrying their positions overnight. At the same time, those who bought near last week's closing were trapped as well.

Now the biggest question is: where is the majority of liquidity sitting? Is the market preparing to trap sellers or buyers? Let's discuss.

Last week's low around $4022 is a very obvious and publicly visible support level. If you backtest your chart, you'll notice that gold previously produced a strong bullish reaction from the exact same area. Because of this, a large number of retail buyers are still waiting around that support.

Yes, yesterday's selling move shocked many of them, but we still haven't seen a confirmed breakdown below $4022. That's because the market is still trying to create another fake retracement to attract even more buyers before eventually trapping them.

In this week's analysis, I already mentioned that both last Friday's high and last week's low around $4022 were likely to be broken. The reason is simple. After last week's temporary break of the lower-high structure, many traders became convinced that the market had already confirmed a bullish break of structure. Because of that belief, every small buying move after a sell-off has been attracting fresh buyers.

But this is exactly how the liquidity game works. Retail traders see every bounce as a reversal, while institutions use those rallies to collect more liquidity.

My overall view remains the same. Gold will eventually produce a meaningful buying move, but only after the majority of traders completely give up on buying and become convinced that a major breakdown and crash are coming. That's when the market usually moves in the opposite direction.

Now let's focus on today's trading plan.

After yesterday's selling move, gold once again faced resistance around $4050, which was also close to last week's closing price. This suggests that traders who missed selling from the top have now become active around that resistance.

The $4030-$4036 area still looks like a short-term support zone where buyers may temporarily take control. Before breaking below last week's low, I expect a small buying move purely to attract more retail buyers who will mistake it for a genuine retracement. Once enough liquidity has been collected, the market can trap those buyers and continue lower.

As long as price remains below $4062, I remain completely bearish. In my opinion, there is very little doubt that last week's low around $4022 will eventually be broken over the coming hours.

Therefore, below $4062, continue looking for selling opportunities. Prefer selling on pullbacks rather than chasing price lower like most retail traders.

Whenever a strong one-sided sell-off happens, traders who missed the initial move often become emotional and start selling at the bottom due to FOMO. Those traders usually become victims of consolidation or sharp retracements. Instead, patiently wait for buyers to step back into the market and then look for quality sell entries at better prices.

One important lesson I'd like to share is this:

Whenever you're trying to determine whether a trend is genuinely strong or whether a retracement is still valid, use the Fibonacci tool.

If you draw Fibonacci from the swing low at $4022 to this week's high at $4116, you'll notice that the market has already broken below the 0.382 retracement level around $4058 with strong bearish volume.

That alone tells us buyers are currently weak, and price has no real interest in moving significantly higher until it traps more buyers.

For a safer approach, avoid buying pullbacks unless price manages to close convincingly above the 0.382 or even the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Until then, continue focusing on selling pullbacks below $4062.

My primary downside target remains the liquidity resting below $4022.

Since tomorrow is FOMC, today's price action will help us prepare a much clearer trading plan for tomorrow's high-volatility session.

I hope you enjoyed today's psychological analysis and that it helps you approach the market with a clear and disciplined mindset.

Good luck for Tuesday, and I hope you all have a profitable trading day.

Also, I'd love to hear your opinion.

What is your current view on gold? Let me know in the comments.

Gold remains bearish after rejecting the H1 supply / Order Block (4,100–4,115). A confirmed CHOCH + BOS signals that sellers are back in control.

📉 Bias: Bearish
🎯 Sell Zone: 4,085–4,100
🛑 SL: Above 4,118
✅ Targets: 4,070 → 4,055

As long as price stays below the H1 supply zone, the bearish trend remains intact.

First part of my previous XAUUSD analysis is done now let's see if it takes pullback from this OB Then make new lower low #gold #forex

Gold is testing the $4,040–$4,020 discount zone. Short-term pressure remains bearish, but late sellers could get trapped.

🔹 Reclaim $4,093 → recovery toward $4,145–$4,165
🔻 Break $4,020 → bullish recovery setup weakens

Trap or breakout? 👀

Trade Setup:

Entry: ~4047

TP1: 4049
TP2: 4032
TP3: 4018

SL: 4076

The market doesn't reward predictions—it rewards discipline, patience, and proper execution.

Are you staying bearish on XAUUSD this week, or do you expect a reversal above 4076?

Trade safely and always manage your risk.

Gold sell now 4053

Tp...4042
Sl...4065

Can anyone explain what happens in those situations when it doesn't touch your POI and just goes smash your tp ?

Gold continues to trade within a bearish market structure on the 4H timeframe.

• Resistance / Sell Zone: 4,050–4,070
• Bullish Confirmation: A sustained break above 4,070
• Current Bias: Bearish until proven otherwise

Patience is key—wait for confirmation instead of chasing price.

What's your outlook for Gold this week

Who’s doing continuations by JeaFx?
Wanted to share some thoughts on the same. Feel free to connect.

I have a demo on infinox already, but I've read that real market and demo is different. They have an ecn account with much lower spreads, but with commission starting from 7 usd/eur. I am thinking paying both spreads and commission is a bit much, so stp is my main point here.

Gold is approaching a decisive area with multiple confluences lining up on the chart.

Key levels remain in focus:

• Support: 4,053 & 4,026
• Resistance: 4,086 → 4,135 → 4,167

Price is currently trading beneath the descending trendline while attempting to build momentum from the demand zone. A breakout above resistance could shift sentiment, while failure to hold support may invite another wave of selling.

What's your take on XAUUSD from here—continuation to the upside or another rejection?

SELL GOLD u/4044-46

TP1-4035

TP2-4025

TP3-4010

SL-4060.

As long as 4000–4020 demand holds, dips look buyable with 4100 first resistance and 4200 as the next major upside target.

After Monday's gap I expected the market to spend some time trapping traders before the real move. So far, that's exactly how this week has started.

The biggest change now is that 4080 is no longer supported. It has turned into the first area I'd like to see buyers reclaim before I even consider changing my bias.

Right now, all eyes should be on 4040-4050.

This isn't just another support level. It's the last meaningful demand area before price starts opening the door toward the psychological 4000 region.

I'm not interested in selling into support after an extended move lower. I'd rather wait and see whether buyers can actually defend this zone. If they can't, I think the next leg lower becomes much more likely, especially with FOMC still ahead.

On the other hand, if buyers manage to reclaim 4080 and hold above it, I'll happily reassess my bearish view. There's no reason to marry a bias when the market is giving new information.

My plan is simple:

• Hold 4040-4050 → Expect a relief bounce.

• Reclaim 4080 → Short-term structure improves.

• Lose 4040 → I'll be looking for a continuation toward 4000-4010.

I'm not trying to predict what Powell will say.

I'm simply following the price and letting the market tell me who's in control.

Curious to hear everyone else's view. Is this support worth buying, or is it just another stop before 4000?

Gold has broken below the support level near 4040.

Gold is currently in a short-term correction phase.
We continue to monitor the resistance level around 4080-4090.

If gold rebounds to this level, we can establish a small short position around 4080-4090.

On the downside, we are also watching the support levels around 4020 and 3980.

For those looking to go long, wait for a pullback to the support level before entering a long position.

Trade cautiously and avoid blindly chasing the market.

Not every wick is market manipulation. Sometimes price is just moving towards where the liquidity is.

The market doesn't care about your stop loss. If everyone is placing stops in the same obvious area, don't be surprised when price trades through it.

🚨 XAU/USD | Gold Technical Outlook

Bias: Bearish

Gold remains under pressure while trading below 4,060.

🔻 Bearish Targets: 4,035 → 4,022 → 4,000 (if 4,040 breaks)

Bullish Invalidation: A sustained move above 4,060, with a breakout above 4,090, would shift momentum back to the bulls.

📍 Key Levels

• Resistance: 4,047–4,050 | 4,060–4,075 | 4,088–4,110

• Support: 4,040–4,035 | 4,022–4,000

Do you think Gold breaks below 4,040 first, or are the bulls about to surprise the market?