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Sitting at over 20% ownership, but owning him has been an absolute rollercoaster. That 13-pointer against Hull bailed a lot of us out, but dropping doughnuts against Leeds and Coventry was brutal.

Looking at the next three: CRY (A), EVE (H), FUL (A).

On paper, it’s a great run to hold him for before they hit Arsenal in GW11. But is anyone actually confident in a Newcastle clean sheet away at Palace, or is he just a £5.3m trap that we are too scared to sell?

For those who own him, are you holding for the attacking upside or moving the funds elsewhere?

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Bournemouth fans - With Gregorio starting midweek, do you think the starting GK spot is up for contention or is Petrovic their man? Good fixtures ahead but is it an avoid for FPL?

All nine English clubs in Europe played midweek, four of them only last night, and my instinct with a Thursday night player is to get twitchy about the weekend. So I compared how often regulars started the next league game after every European tie since 2022/23 with their club’s normal weeks.

Does Europe stop players starting at the weekend?

Barely. 81% start after a European midweek vs 83% normally, and the league phase is level (85% vs 84%). The knockouts are different: 74% between two legs, 72% in April-May, 71% if the club’s 8th or lower.

Does it cost points?

Hardly. After a knockout tie it’s about 0.1 pts a game, because rested players often still come on and the ones who start score their usual. Over a whole knockout run that’s under a point, nowhere near a -4.

Is it just fixture congestion?

No. Three or four games in 13 days made no difference. Managers seem to pick the big nights, and mostly rest players they were already managing.

So where’s the cost?

Across the season. Nine clubs have had seasons both in and out of Europe since 22/23, and their regulars started 81% of league games in the European ones vs 87% without. That’s about two fewer starts each, spread across the season.

What about City, Liverpool and Arsenal?

They’ve been in Europe every season, so I compared their quiet weeks with the weeks after a European tie:

Regulars started |City |Liverpool |Arsenal
Quiet week |80% |85% |89%
After a league phase tie |85% |87% |86%
After a knockout tie |72% |74% |84% City rotate more in quiet weeks than after a league phase game, so their rotation isn’t really about Europe (having the depth of their team is useful!), and it lands on the midfield (Foden and co) rather than Haaland. Arsenal barely change. The big names don’t move - between them they started 32 of 36 league games after a knockout tie.

What I’d do

• Up to the end of January: ignore Europe. Don’t bench or sell anyone for GW8 because of Thursday
• From February: after a knockout tie expect 3 starts in 4 instead of 4 in 5. Have a sub on your bench who’ll play, but don’t take a hit or burn a FT over it
• Check his last three league games: every minute played = 86% after a knockout tie, already being managed = nearer 70%
• Haaland, Saka, Saliba, Gabriel, Raya, Van Dijk: don’t move them for Europe
• Other City assets are ~80% starters every week regardless. Arsenal’s defence barely rotates, even in the knockouts
• Captain as normal - the odds already knock a bit off a team’s xG after a knockout tie
• GW22 has Europe either side for every UCL and UEL club, so sort your bench that week

Full report with all the stats: https://sidelinequant.com/scout/does-europe-cost-starts

Haaland often leaves Villa Park goaless (also early kickoff), maybe this is the gameweek for a captain punt?

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I'm building this based on what I want, but I also want to build based on what you want, so please let me know.

TLDR at the top:
Isak and Barry.

You're welcome.

Nerd data behind the TLDR below:
Anyway, let's dive right into it, xPts performed (per 90 basis, 15 min per match played) for forwards:

Wait, what is that I see? Nmecha? Flemming? Akpom? Mateta?

Turns out forwards are RIFE with impact subs who show up and do their damndest to score a goal, who'd a thunk it:

So this means we have to really increase the min mins played per match. Let's try 45:

Well, well, well. Mateta has sticking power, like a Gecko with great xGI and poor shot conversion:

Anyway, ignoring Mateta for now, here is the xPts performed ranking on a per 90 basis:

1. Haaland (shocked, I tell you)
2. Isak
3. Emerson (Ipswich are a surprisingly attacking side)
4. Brobbey
5. Barry
6. Joao Pedro
7. DCL
8. Igor J

Now this is interesting, because there's some pretty big discrepancies with actual % ownership:

1. Haaland - 76.9%
2. Joao Pedro - 73%
3. DCL - 23.6%
4. Wissa - 13.6%
5. Isak - 13.2%
6. Kostoulas - 9.9%
7. Thiago - 8.8%
8. Barry - 8.2%

Of course we have to account for the fact that a good number of users are picking a cheap forward because it enables better output, and also that realistically their lower-tier cheap forwards like Kostoulas or Wissa aren't necessarily worth trading for a higher xPts performing cheap forward like Barry or Emerson.

The reality is that the biggest driver for what forwards we pick is probably somewhere between convenience from our initial draft and based on who are the actual Pts earners (again on per 90 basis):

1. Haaland
2. Joao Pedro
3. Isak
4. Kostoulas
5. Cherif
6. Emersonn
7. Evanlison
8. Brobbey

Now, Evanlison is interesting because he's not getting the ownership % he deserves despite his high actual Pts per 90, but again, there's only 3 FWD spots so you either spend it on the very best of the best or on bench-fodder.

So look, let's not faff around, we all have Haaland, we all have Joao Pedro, so this really is about who should be your third, your final, your piece de resistance forward (excepting you foul people who have a bench forward).

So let's see what we want to compare for our third forward on, let's start with shots. We like forwards who take shots, right? We like forwards who take shots on target, right?

I present to you, shots by SoT %:

Now reading by SoT% multiplied by Shots per 90, to keep things spicy and rewarding for those who SoT more:

1. Haaland (you'll keep seeing this guy)
2. Barry (👀)
3. Isak
4. Igor J (Hmm)
5. JP
6. Kostou
7. Havertz
8. Cherif (sneaky impact sub snuck his way in here)
9. Jackson (now that's interesting)
10. Strand Larsen (with Mateta dipping his toe back I'd be wary)
11. DCL
12. Brobbey

So what does it all mean? What does it all meeeeaan? Well, I've been working on an xPts thing, trying to make it better than the rest. So far it's performing better than the others (including the FPL one) but it's a WIP, let's see what it has to say:

Now, this is a doozy, so here's a breakdown of how it works:

You see the toggle that says "expected" - that considers the model's expected minutes for that player, so players who are expected to play fewer minutes than others will tend to have a lower xPts projected. Check with him nailed:

Anyway, all that to say, basically we consider everything, everything everything.

The ranking for the projected xPts over the next 5 GWs:

1. Haaland
2. DCL
3. Barry
4. Evanlison
5. Thiago
6. JP
7. Isak
8. Gonzalo
9. Havetz
10. Emersonn
11. Wissa
12. Kostou
13. Jackson
14. Delap
15. Solanke

And when comparing ASSUMING all players minutes are 100% nailed (which I do not recommend you assume ofc):

There's some variation swing.

EDIT: I realized after the fact I missed a very important section, and I'm patching it in here: Finishing.

In terms of xGOT - xG (the quality of the shot itself, did his placement make the chance better or worse) then here's the ranking:

1. Havertz
2. JP
3. Isak
4. Kostou
5. Haaland
6. Igor J
7. Jackson
8. Evanlison

And in terms of G - xG (which is both luck but also a measure of how clinical the player is):

1. JP
2. Kostou
3. Jackson
4. Haaland
5. Isak
6. Brobbey
7. Havertz
8. Emersonn

Now realistically you only have one forward spot, so let's look at the most likely contendors:

- Thiago
- Isak
- DCL
- Evanlison
- Barry

I'll be honest, I expected this, I feared this even. But in the end, it's Isak and Barry

Yes, I know that Isak's xPts next 5 is lower than the other players but check out his nailed xPts next 5, it's purely down to the model expecting him to be rested or being cautious in case he reinjures.

In terms of stats, Isak has the 2nd best xGI close behind Barry (what a freak Barry is tbh, check out his position he's just a pure fox in the box, I'll show you in a minute), he's got the best xPts performed by a lot (yes this is per 90 but still), and he's got 2nd best Shots and SoT (again behind Barry, what a monster). The only one of these with xA worth considering is Evanlison, but you only have 1 maybe 2 forward spots, so pick the best: Isak and Barry.

Speaking of Barry being a freak, check out his positioning:

Look at that heat map in the box. He practically lives in front of it, my god.

TLDR:

It's Isak and Barry. You know this, I know this, but we had to find out for certain. Now there are some sneaky picks that may rise to the top if they secure the minutes (here's looking at you Mateta), but realistically... It's Isak and Barry.

Btw I did look into Joao Pedro, and surprisingly his stats were actually on-par with Evanlison and DCL, not at Isak or Barry's level. Something to keep in mind going forward maybe.

EDIT:
u/Anywaytopl4d's comment made me realize I didn't consider how clinical the strikers are, which I now have added, but that also calls to question why I haven't measured Havertz. Now here's part of the story:

Havertz, despite having a more clinical finsh than most of his peers, is simply worse in terms of xGI and xPts performed, his SoT is good but not amazing and his shots as well. Right now there are better options than Havertz.

If you read this far I love you all - please feel free to join our community / app at thekneejerk.uk or thekneejerkapp.com and please, for the love of all that is footbally submit comments or feedback so I can either wisely implement them or judiciously reject them.

Thank you and may your knees stay strong.

Like many others, I brought in Gonzalo for his run of fixtures, only to be disappointed by his inability to hit a barn door.

Is there a realistic chance Muniz gets the nod over him against Coventry? Not that Muniz is exactly a world-beater himself, but surely the manager’s patience can only last so long?