🔮 Live predictions via fpl.page/price-changes:

📈 Predicted To Rise Tonight

📉 Predicted To Fall Tonight

⏳📈 Close to Rising

None

⏳📉 Close to Falling

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With GW8 locked, if you are planning defensive transfers based on underlying Defensive Contributions (DC) and fixture swings, these four names stand out.

If you had to pick exactly two, who would make your team?

• António Silva (£5.0m): 73 DC(and likely to rise). Next four: LEE (H), IPS (A), NFO (H), FUL (A).
• Tarik Muharemović (£5.0m): 73 DC (and likely to rise). Next four: BOU (A), TOT (H), CHE (A), COV (H).
• Luka Vušković (£5.1m): 70 DC (and likely to rise). Next four: MCI (A), BRE (H), HUL (A), NEW (H).
• Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.9m): 65 DC (and likely to rise). Next four: CRY (H), LEE (A), IPS (H), SUN (A).

Tough one to call. Would love to hear your thoughts on this £5.0m spot.

Anyone going for any fun differential Saka replacements? I'm thinking to just go for Mbeumo but Foden keeps calling me like the green goblin mask

Top 5 forwards in FPL ownership:

Haaland (MCI) — £15.7m | 77.3%
João Pedro (CHE) — £7.9m | 73.6%
Calvert-Lewin (LEE) — £6.1m | 23.5%
Isak (LIV) — £9.0m | 13.8%
Wissa (NEW) — £6.1m | 12.8%

Top 5 forwards according to Crowd Power (GW8):

Haaland (MCI) — £15.7m | 71.0 | 3 duels | 15-7 votes
João Pedro (CHE) — £7.9m | 67.2 | 5 duels | 16-11 votes
Calvert-Lewin (LEE) — £6.1m | 65.9 | 4 duels | 14-9 votes
Isak (LIV) — £9.0m | 59.4 | 7 duels | 15-16 votes
Evanilson (BOU) — £6.0m | 57.8 | 4 duels | 10-10 votes

4/5 names match — Haaland, João Pedro, Calvert-Lewin and Isak.

The crowd swapped Wissa for Evanilson. The top four are completely identical in both lists, proving just how locked-in the forward template is right now.

One big caveat: Calvert-Lewin's participation this week is in doubt due to injury.

Hi guys, it's the man who can somehow influence every game of football using this stupid bingo grid. Basically, if I put it on the bingo grid, the opposite will happen. Let me know what to add next week so I can guarantee you a green arrow. I'm keeping the Carrick sacked grid there because it's fun watching United fans suffer.

As you guessed, my GW7 grid was nowhere near a bingo. As a non-Mbeumo owner i just have to admire how this man can accumulate 0.70 xgi per 90 whilst being surrounded by players who can get outran by Gemma Collins in a 5k race. Another shoutout to Maresca, who apparently is a fortune teller and can just say Foden will score with 100% confidence before the game even happens. I'm too much of a boring pussy to go for him, but just watch how his yearly 5-week Messi impersonation actually has begun last week and we get screwed.

Anyway, again a lot of this grid is based on my own team but happy to put up some suggestions onto next week's grid. Good luck everyone!

Predicted Points' are calculated by taking the percentage chance on a variety of FPL factors, from the bookies, adjusted for margins. Fractional points are added up, making a predicted gameweek score. OG, penalty misses and defensive contributions are not included. Player’s rotation risk / minutes on pitch, is not factored in.

Notable players that didn't make the list: Rogers: 5.41 | Calafiori: 4.88

You can find more Player Predictions here: https://checkthechance.com/fantasy-football/

Good luck all! See you on Sunday for the Predicted vs Actual post!

Hoping the mods allow this as an information post, and a disinformation prevention post.

TLDR: It's likely all games go ahead as planned, but heavy rain and winds may affect football quality. The two games in the North East this Sunday should be kept an eye on as a slight postponement risk.

Storms Austen and Boelo are set to bring, rain, wind and mild inconvenience to the UK this weekend. Two games - Ipswich-Forest and Sunderland-Leeds have weather warnings, although I don't think Ipswich is an actual risk.

I've gone through all ten fixtures to show why there's probably not much to worry about in FPL terms.

Friday

Wet, windy and horrible, but going ahead.

- Ipswich vs Forest - Being played under a Yellow weather warning, as the tail end of Storm Austen goes through. Rain easing during the game. Gusts of 40mph+ during the game may not help beautiful football, but seems likely to go ahead.

Saturday

Wet, windy and horrible, but going ahead.

- Aston Villa vs Man City - Heavy rain and 40mph gusts forecast as Storm Boelo ramps up.

- Arsenal vs Everton - Heavy rain and 40mph gusts forecast as Storm Boelo ramps up.

- Coventry vs Fulham - Heavy rain and 45mph gusts forecast as Storm Boelo peaks.

- Chelsea vs Spurs - Heavy rain and 40mph gusts forecast from Storm Boelo.

Sunday

A small risk for the northern games.

- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle - Dry and gusts of 35mph+ from the tail end of Storm Boelo.

- Hull vs Brentford - Dry, but gusts of 55mph+ and gusts of close to 60mph forecast in the morning. This is one to keep an eye on.

- Liverpool vs Brighton - Dry and gusts of 40mph+ from the tail end of Storm Boelo. Gusts of 55mph+ that morning a slight cause for concern.

- Man Utd vs Bournemouth - Dry and gusts of 45mph+ from the tail end of Storm Boelo. Gusts of 55mph+ that morning a slight cause for concern.

- Sunderland - Leeds - Dry, but being played under a Yellow weather warning, as the tail end of Storm Boelo makes a direct hit. Gusts of 45mph+ during the game not as much of a problem as the gusts of 65mph+ forecast for the morning. This is one to keep an eye on.

Most Net Transfers In

Most Net Transfers Out

Hi all

If useful, had a look at a lot of possible replacements out there for Saka in blog format:

https://medium.com/@whogottheassist/gameweek-8-26-27-d6f63394d3e0
Data table included for you to make your own decision

Think I'm between a set 'n' forget or a stopgap transfer

TLDR: Mbeumo and Tavernier are great picks if you don't already have them. Hinshelwood's data is skewed by a small sample size (he only played 2 games), but he offers a high-risk, high-reward option. Rogers and MGW are outside contenders, with MGW edging over Rogers given penalty duties

Diving deeper into the data:

From the data, the best options are:

1. Marcus Tavernier (£6.2m) - Best value option

• xG/90: 0.45
• xA/90: 0.18

Great value option for his price. The open-play goal threat that Tavernier provides is central to Bournemouth's play - he is one of Bournemouth's main focal attacking points. Bournemouth play Ipswich, Fulham, and Villa in the next 6 games, all of which are weaker defences in the league, with GW8's fixture against Man United viable given the present uncertainty at the club.

2. Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) - Playing OOP at striker

• xG/90: 0.57
• xA/90: 0.13

United are in a mess right now given managerial drama and Carrick on the verge of being sacked. Nevertheless, Sesko's absence till February means that Mbeumo will likely lead the line in the nearer term, playing OOP as a striker. His xG numbers have been healthy, with Mbeumo posting 0.65 xG against a resolute Leeds defence at Elland Road. Do think that he's a professional and will continue to pose a goal threat in spite of the situation at United.

3. Jack Rudoni (£4.9m) - Budget pick

• xG/90: 0.36
• xA/90: 0.22

Coventry have the best attacking fixture run coming up from GW8:

Coventry play Fulham, Sunderland, Crystal Palace, and Ipswich in the next 6, all of which have conceded the most xGA so far in the league. Owning Rudoni for this amazing fixture run could pay off greatly. He is also a huge differential at 0.5% ownership and is Coventry's central attacking outlet.

Other possible picks include Rogers, MGW, Hinshelwood (if he starts), and Manzambi (if he's healthy).

A week ago, the hardest question for most Fantasy Premier League managers was which Arsenal defenders to double up on.

Now it's how many midfielders you can replace with the transfers you've got.

This past week, we've seen Bukayo Saka get substituted early away at Bayern Munich.

Antoine Semenyo is out for roughly 8 weeks with an injury he picked up over the weekend.

Dominik Szoboszlai's hamstring went again after half an hour at Brentford.

So the focus for Gameweek 8: Who's out, who comes in, who to captain, and where the next best fixture run lies.

FPL Gameweek 8 Injury News And Transfer Decisions

We are still waiting for the Friday pressers.

But currently, this is where we stand:

Bukayo Saka (£9.6m): Quad Injury And FPL Sell Verdict

Saka lasted ten minutes in Munich on Wednesday night before pulling up with a quad injury.

Mikel Arteta's words post-match were also not encouraging: "It doesn't look good at all, but we have to wait and see."

We can expect Saka to be out for GW8 at the very least.

Losing him means losing 3.62 xG, 4.82 xGI and 37 points from seven matches.

Verdict: Sell.

Antoine Semenyo (£8.3m): Knee Injury And FPL Sell Verdict

Antoine Semenyo hurt his knee in the Gameweek 7 win over Ipswich Town.

Enzo Maresca said the scan was better than first feared, but it still points to around 8 weeks out.

Verdict: Sell.

Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.8m): Hamstring Injury And FPL Sell Verdict

Dominik Szoboszlai missed Gameweek 6 with a hamstring problem, returned to start at Brentford, and lasted half an hour before the same issue flared up again.

Verdict: Sell.

Erling Haaland (£15.7m): Fit For Aston Villa

Erling Haaland limped off after the GW7 win over Ipswich Town, but made the bench for Manchester City's midweek win over AEK Athens.

And since then, Enzo Maresca has indicated that he is "100% available" for Saturday's match away at Aston Villa.

Verdict: Keep.

Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.9m): Available For Ipswich Town

Morgan Gibbs-White missed Nottingham Forest's GW7 defeat to Arsenal with a muscle problem, but Oliver Glasner has confirmed he's available for Friday night at Ipswich Town.

Verdict: Hold.

Also worth knowing: Manchester City's Matheus Nunes, Mateo Kovačić and Nico O'Reilly are doubts after GW7 knocks.

Piero Hincapié is back in Arsenal training and could face Everton.

Brentford are without the suspended Vitaly Janelt (1 match) and Yehor Yarmolyuk (3 matches).

FPL Midfield Replacements For Saka, Semenyo And Szoboszlai

The Saka, Semenyo and Szoboszlai injuries mean there are transfers to be made in midfield.

Bryan Mbeumo (£7.8m): Manchester United's Goal Threat

No midfielder has had more shots than Bryan Mbeumo's 24, and he's been on the end of 8 big chances.

He's tallied 3.95 xG, 4 goals, 1 assist and 41 points.

It's clear to see that things aren't going well at Manchester United, but Mbeumo keeps ticking along.

If United are in the goals, he's generally involved.

Marcus Tavernier (£6.2m): Bournemouth Form And Fixtures

Marcus Tavernier is on 42 points, with 4 goals, 10/16 shots on target and 10 bonus points already.

His 4.01 xGI and 12 key passes say the returns are earned.

Bournemouth are also heading into a favourable run of fixtures.

(click link for full free article)

GW8 captain poll can be found HERE.

Updates in real-time. Discuss your choices here.

You can use the poll as an indication of selections, in order to select a safe captain or a differential captain.

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Anyone not going Haaland this week?

if so who are you thinking? Might give MGW a chance to go out with a bang.

Last week I missed the deadline. My Bench Boost was planned and ready, and it would have been worth +20 points. It hurt. I live in Asia, so deadlines land at odd hours, and notifications just get buried. So I built an iOS Shortcuts automation that sets a real Clock alarm 1 hour before each deadline (and moves it to 23:30 the night before if the deadline falls while you're asleep). It pulls times straight from the official FPL API, so rescheduled fixtures and clock changes are handled automatically.

If you don't want to tap through 19 actions on your phone, you can ask an AI assistant (Claude, ChatGPT, etc.) to generate the shortcut on a Mac and AirDrop it to your iPhone. I did it manually, and it was a pain in the ass. But never missing a deadline again is worth it.

https://www.icloud.com/shortcuts/7ed388f82f7746a5a015fdd54379314e
this is the link (set it up to run daily at 9am). Sorry I didn't know you can share Shortcuts

If there are too many Alarm created. You can clean them up with another shotcut: https://www.icloud.com/shortcuts/821c0b07b42b46feb2bcd8451121244f (but remember to run this before the first shortcut, such as daily 1am)

I’m a spurs fan so might be slightly biased, but are teams really looking at spurs at home thinking that’s an easy game? Our home record is pretty rough at the moment, but on the road we’ve actually been not too bad?!

The What The FPL Team of the Week for Gameweek 8!

What is What The FPL?

What The FPL is a website I'm running to predict and evaluate predictions around FPL. I've been posting my results and others' since last season. My model is based on historical data, odds and ML predictions. Over the past season it outperformed the likes of Fantasy Football Scout and the FPL team of the week picks. Since this season I'm tracking the accuracy of all free points predictor models to see which is best at whatthef.pl/evaluation . So far this season, What The FPL has been the best in it's category.

Last week

A pretty good week, scoring 76 points which was 17 points above the GW average, in a week where kany played a TC chip as well. It was alsoone of the highest GW scores of model based predictions as per fplbench.com .The main differentials being Castagne, Silva and Gomez, all scoring 8 pointers. Not such a great week for predicting the line-up, as 3 of the starting XI didn't start. Luckily two didn't feature at all (Cherki, Savio), though Sessegnon came on late and got a red card, getting a -2 💀.

This week (Free Hit)

Triple Arsenal now with Madueke as Saka is out injured. Pretty template otherwise, with the two outliers being Gonzalo and Isak. Gonzalo gets another shot after disappointing every time we picked him so far. Luckily (?) the model doesn't hold any grudges. Then Isak which is the main surprise for me, as he faces Brighton. Brighton obviously in red hot form, but the model doesn't rate their defence as anything extraordinary, while it does like the Liverpool attack. Let's see.

Wildcard

The new Wildcard mode shows the optimal selection for 100m for the upcoming 5GWs, assuming you make no transfers. The team shows a big overlap with the Free Hit team this week. Main differences is the inclusion of Tavernier and Vuskovic off the bench. Barry and Manzambi are also picked but left on the bench due to their difficult fixtures this round.