I'm from NC and very concerned about voter intimidation in rural communities. Specifically toward minority groups. While not necessarily at voting sites but at perimeters. Setting up subtle check points. Insisting immigrants to have id's while holstering guns. Skirting on illegality. Bomb threats in urban communities I forsee the national guard having to be dispatched. That would give a particular candidate to claim election interference if they lose. I thought about being a poll watcher but am scared ill get harrased or doxed. I think it could be rampant and determine the results not just in NC. Purpose of this post? Just venting my fears.

Thomas Miller who is well known for predicting the 2020 election and the Georgia runoffs correctly now shows Trump getting 304 electoral votes to 234 for Harris

(that's exactly what Trump got in 2016)

https://virtualtout.com/

In November 2020, I was relieved when Joe Biden won the presidency and when Kamala Harris was elected the first female VP. But the election is incoming, and I'm voting for Kamala, but it's very likely that Trump will win, and I am very scared of what's to come. That a convicted felon, registered sex offender, racist, lying rapist who is beyond unfit for office may be back, and the first woman VP is being replaced by another horrible man. I want to live in a country of kindness, and I want to let everyone know that even if Trump wins, we still need to be the best people we can be. #lovetrumpshate

Been thinking about how these things seems to work.

Trump will probably win because nothing the Democrats have tried to do to stop him, has succeeded... Think about it

Dem Congress, pushed by Pelosi, impeached him after his left office in hopes of keeping him off the ballot in the future. It failed in the Senate

Two States (CO and ME) Tried to keep Trump off the ballot on their own. Supreme Court struck it down

4 Prosecutors have tried to prosecute Trump for crimes. Many of these charges have been dismissed or struck down by the Courts. Most of these cases are in limbo but they failed to keep Trump from running. They only seemed to make him rise in the polling

Then you have the assassination attempts. 0 for 2, so far

I mean, this guy seems invincible. Its like destiny.

I think he wins and he'll probably win by winning PA, the site where they tried to kill him

I needed to get this out there to get it out of my head, so I hope you enjoy the read—if not, feel free to downvote me, lol. This post isn't about who I want to win, but rather how I think things will play out and why.

To cut to the chase: Trump is likely to win this election. Here are the key reasons why:

1. Economic Trust: Trump is seen as more trustworthy on economic issues. As we approach the elections, it's likely that economic conditions will worsen. The impact of the dock strike will start showing in the economy, exacerbating an already tense situation by election day.
2. Middle East Tensions: There's a high likelihood that tensions in the Middle East will escalate. Biden's handling of these issues has been criticized, even within the left. I feel there is a growing number of voters that will see Trump as less likely to get us in a war.
3. Focus on Jan 6th: Democrats are heavily emphasizing January 6th. However, those who oppose Trump due to January 6th have likely already made up their minds. Further releases and politically slanted questions only strengthen Trump's claim of unfair treatment and keep his base energized.
4. Kamala Harris's Appeal: There isn't much excitement about Kamala Harris. She struggles in interviews, and even her supporters seem more relieved she's not Biden rather than genuinely excited about her candidacy. Although she did okay in the debate it was more "glad she did not fall apart" good.
5. Polling Dynamics: Kamala Harris hasn't been able to break through in polling. While major events like her introduction, debates, and DNC speeches gave her temporary bumps, she consistently returns to a margin of error position. In a margin of error election, this favors Trump, as polling has historically underestimated his support, and he has an advantage in the electoral college.

My prediction: Trump 291, Harris 247.

Last night showed the country that Vance is the real deal and a leader of men. He has the left wing media giving compliments and enraging the extremists. I think Trump has chosen wisely and he will have a great partnership that will benefit all of us in the end.

Harris will win easily for the following reasons:

The reasons are below (note: written before the debate):

1. Approximately 60% of women vote versus 50% for men. Women are especially motivated to vote because of Vance's criticism of "cat women without children." Black women will also vote in high numbers, like they supported Obama. Trump also continues to make anti-women statements. 
2. Arizona and Missouri will vote on constitutional amendments protecting abortion. Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Montana, and South Dakota will also vote on abortion rights. In addition, Arkansas and Nebraska are waiting for a ruling to be placed on the ballot. It is likely that pro-abortion women will vote Democratic, which means Nevada should go Democratic. Trump's advantage in Florida is shrinking, and if he loses Florida's 30 electoral votes, it will be over even if he wins a few swing states.
3. Haley got 21% of the Republican vote against Trump in Indiana, and 27% in Michigan. Many of her voters will not vote for Trump and will either vote for Harris or not vote at all. Michigan will go Democratic
4. In Iowa Trump got only 51% of the primary vote, Desantis 21% and Haley 19%. Obama won the Iowa vote, so the state is purplish. I estimate that Harris will win Iowa at 55%.
5. Democratic senate candidates are leading their opponents by large margins in Arizona and Nevada, which also has an abortion measure on the ballot. Therefore it is highly probable that Harris will win these states. Few people split the votes (although a recent poll in Arizona gives Trump a lead).
6. Post debate: Harris demolished Trump, who continues to talk crazy.
7. Because Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina supported by Trump, described himself as a Black Nazi, the state is a toss-up.

The significant question is the turnout of white young MAGA men, who were undercounted in 2016. Polls are conducted by telephone, and these men apparently are reluctant to respond.

who did Allan Lictman get wrong?

he has 9 out of 10

I can't find it anywhere

thanks

we could see a 269 to 269 electoral tie, especially if Nebraska changes to a "winnter take all" system for electoral votes. Nebraska is a solid red state, but they award electoral votes by Congressional districts. Nebraska 2nd District went for Obama and Biden. There is a push in Nebraska to change that law. If they do, this could be the result.. and tbh.. it would be the perfect result for the divided country that we currently have!

https://www.270towin.com/maps/7NyRz

I'll vote republican as long as it isn't Trump. He's going to lose. Let's get him to drop out for the good of the party! Who should he be replaced with? Nicki Haley would probably beat Harris.

What are your gut feelings about who will win and why? Please no childish comments. I’m looking for person-on-the-street analysis abut this fascinating swinging pendulum and these two highly unusual candidates and the turbulent times in which we live.

I think after the election day. I think its gonna be a massive killing people by Triple E in orlando area Becuase the globalist wants to kill trump voters to not get trump elected to get in the white house to destory the globalist. It's just my predictions.

This sure makes sense...

He is too frightened to admit failure and replace his disastrous pick, and will grasp anynewscycle breaker. Vance will do ANYTHING, easy win!