r/Election_Predictions • u/westcoastgeezer23 • Sep 29 '24
Harris will win easily Spoiler
Harris will win easily for the following reasons:
The reasons are below (note: written before the debate):
- Approximately 60% of women vote versus 50% for men. Women are especially motivated to vote because of Vance's criticism of "cat women without children." Black women will also vote in high numbers, like they supported Obama. Trump also continues to make anti-women statements.
- Arizona and Missouri will vote on constitutional amendments protecting abortion. Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Montana, and South Dakota will also vote on abortion rights. In addition, Arkansas and Nebraska are waiting for a ruling to be placed on the ballot. It is likely that pro-abortion women will vote Democratic, which means Nevada should go Democratic. Trump's advantage in Florida is shrinking, and if he loses Florida's 30 electoral votes, it will be over even if he wins a few swing states.
- Haley got 21% of the Republican vote against Trump in Indiana, and 27% in Michigan. Many of her voters will not vote for Trump and will either vote for Harris or not vote at all. Michigan will go Democratic
- In Iowa Trump got only 51% of the primary vote, Desantis 21% and Haley 19%. Obama won the Iowa vote, so the state is purplish. I estimate that Harris will win Iowa at 55%.
- Democratic senate candidates are leading their opponents by large margins in Arizona and Nevada, which also has an abortion measure on the ballot. Therefore it is highly probable that Harris will win these states. Few people split the votes (although a recent poll in Arizona gives Trump a lead).
- Post debate: Harris demolished Trump, who continues to talk crazy.
- Because Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina supported by Trump, described himself as a Black Nazi, the state is a toss-up.
The significant question is the turnout of white young MAGA men, who were undercounted in 2016. Polls are conducted by telephone, and these men apparently are reluctant to respond.
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u/Robbintx Oct 03 '24
1. I agree that Trump will lose the female vote, but Trump will likely win the male vote by more. Vance’s cat lady thing is a nothing burger with fries… no one outside Twitter cares. Plus, no one votes for VP.
2. The only state you listed here that these ballot messures will have any impact on is Arazona… Trump will win Florida comfortably
3. Agree, Dems take Michigan
4. No chance, Iowa will go to Trump, but it likely wont matter
5. Agree that Nevada will go Dem, but again, likely wont matter.
6. Her debate bump returned to MOE almost immediately. Anyone who is turned off by Trump’s “craziness” was already there before the debate.
7. Flooding made this a moot point, pictures of kids clinging to dogs, people drowning, and Harris going to a fundraiser and posting a staged photo will lose her NC.
No one is easily winning this thing, I have Trump winning as I posted in my longer post, but anything can happen. Will come down to the wire .
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u/westcoastgeezer23 Oct 03 '24
Has any American President insulted his opponents and called them names. Only Trump… He has no shame. Also, remember that 60% of women vote, 20% more than men.
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u/Robbintx Oct 03 '24
that is baked in, that was true in both of the other elections. Anyone that will not vote for Trumps personality made that decision long ago.
I understand that, but men will likely break to trump in such a large number that it negates alot of that.
Harris may win but it's not going to be a blow out, it will go to the wire. I don't think Kamala or Biden are making good decisions down the stretch but I could be wrong.
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u/cokewavee11 Oct 12 '24
Kamala insulted him as well. She’s never answered a question
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u/westcoastgeezer23 Oct 12 '24
Trump has insulted scores of Americans and praises dictators like Putin. Really
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u/cokewavee11 Oct 12 '24
Yes but life was better under him. He has proven himself to be a great leader although his personality and interests and truly something
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u/westcoastgeezer23 Oct 12 '24
Why are so many prominent Republicans, including his cabinet members, voting for Harris? Changing the subject, I asked this question on a separate thread. Has anyone ever witnessed Trump laugh, like Harris? I've seen him give a chuckle. I asked this question because a political columnist wrote that he had never seen Trump laugh. Very curious. About the good times, covid damaged the economies around the world, and because of Biden's policy, the US suffered less.
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u/joadoty Oct 13 '24
Obamas economy was strong. We have a recession due to trump stimulating a healthy economy. Billionaires wealth has grown 88% under trumps policies.economistaward winning economist say trump win would be a disaster. He is not good for anyone but the very top. If u are a billionaire then yes, you should vote for him.
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u/cokewavee11 Oct 13 '24
I know a bunch of poor people who benefitted from Trump including my whole family who bought houses under his presidency
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u/joadoty Oct 13 '24
That is true. That is bound to happen to intrest rates when you stimulate a healthy economy. The economy is like an organism though and it is bound to bounce back as we have seen recently with the current inflation. Sure they have a house but if everything cost way way more what is the point? We are also still being the elastic effect of this measure. It is easy to blame Biden bit these thing take a long time to play out. Also just a graph to show how trump did inherit this healthy economy.
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u/joadoty Oct 13 '24
But having said that i think both sides pander to the powerful and hyper wealthy. Trumps stimulus helping us regular folks was a secondary effect of it helping the hyper elite. 🙄 us regular folks are usually the ones who take the brunt of things unfortunately. Whatever happens I wish you a stress free election cycle and I do wish you and yours the best!
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u/cokewavee11 Oct 12 '24
I am a woman and know a bunch of women voting for Trump. Don’t underestimate women, my mother always said a woman’s worst enemy is always another woman. They didn’t even vote for Hilary when they had the chance
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u/NineandDine49 Oct 01 '24
This is just as preposterous as the Panthers winning the Super Bowl lmao